The transitional component of the African-American electorate in the 2004 presidential election: Issue orientation and the voting decision

The increase in African Americans voting Republican in the 2004 presidential election suggests a compositional change within the African-American electorate. Eight percent of African Americans voted Republican in the 2000 presidential election. An emergent transitional component is indicated by the 11 percent of African Americans who voted Republican in the 2004 presidential election. African-American racial identification is reliably correlated with party identification and the Democratic Party. However, the long-term trend of increased issue voting and the 2004 campaign issues of national security, abortion, and gay marriage point to issue orientation as a principal factor in the transitional component voting decision. The likelihood that issue orientation took precedence over racial identification for African-American voters is investigated.