Soft interdependence and international conflict

This dissertation brings new clarity to a long-standing puzzle: Which relationships among states contribute most to international peace? Existing work focuses almost exclusively on the effects of dyadic trade interdependence however, commerce is far from the only interaction between states, and, in the context of globalization, it is not the most transformative. In response to this observation, I challenge two basic assumptions implicit in the interdependence literature. The first is that cost---be it the cost of vulnerability, or the opportunity cost of potentially lost trade---drives the relationship between interdependence and conflict. I argue instead that while interdependence pacifies, it is the psychological closeness and familiarity that frequent contact between societies engenders that is responsible for much of this effect. I term this product of inter-societal interaction "soft interdependence," in order to differentiate it from of arguments based on dyadic trade and the economic costs of conflict. The second assumption that I challenge is that interdependence is a bilateral phenomenon that occurs between just two states. I argue instead that interdependence operates in the context of a broader network of states and therefore can be better-understood using tools from social network analysis.I conclude that previous models of interdependence and conflict are underspecified in two ways. First, the use of dyadic analysis has effectively excluded the central role of third parties in conflict dynamics, thereby biasing findings upward. Second, exclusive attention to trade has effectively excluded the role of interpersonal linkages from existing models. Once the role of networked relations and alternative forms of interdependence are properly accounted for, the influence of trade on the larger question diminishes considerably. Thus, I argue that policy-makers should avoid an overreliance on the blunt instruments of trade and sanctions, and should factor the soft interdependence between states into the policy equation.