| This dissertation develops a modelling framework that aims to simulate the behaviour of public transit agencies when they make changes to periodic transit services. The purpose of this model is to predict bus transit network evolution in future time steps. The explicit treatment of changes in the supply of transportation (highway and public transit infrastructure) is currently missing from the urban/transportation simulation frameworks. For this reason, this research project was initiated to develop a model component to the ILUTE urban/transportation simulation framework that represents the evolution of transit bus networks. This model, also, is a useful tool for the transit planners to support their decisions when they apply a change to their networks or to test different strategies and project alternatives they plan to apply.;The approach for developing such model was multi-phased, starting with an empirical analysis of the relationship between network changes and various factors. Statistical and econometric models (multiple regression and system of simultaneous regression equations) were built to relate the supply of transit networks with a group of socioeconomic, demographic, and route-specific variables. These variables include transit demand, population density, employment and connection to the rapid transit network. Time and demand/supply interactions were taken into consideration in the simultaneous equations models that describe the evolution of supply along with demand.;The second and main phase aimed to develop a decision support system model in a GIS platform. This model is a function of several factors such as ridership and land-use, and is influenced by the guidelines that are followed by transit agencies and included in their service standards. This model, known as PREMOTRANE---"Prediction Model of Transit Network Evolution", is a simulation framework that models the periodic actions pursued by public transit agencies to perform service changes.;"PREMOTRANE-Minor Changes" & "PREMOTRANE-GIS" are the two main modules of the developed model. Tests showed that "PREMOTRANE-MC" is generally successful in finding the bus routes with poor performance and routes that were overcrowded. Results also indicated that "PREMOTRANE-GIS", the GIS based module, is a promising tool in building new bus lines, especially, when new rapid transit stations are available. |
