Missing links: Demystifying alternative energy use and improving decision making for increased off-grid electrification in Colombia

Colombia is set to gain from promoting alternative energy both at the grid and off-grid level. Alternative energy constitutes a substantial energy resource that will become more competitive with the internalization of fossil fuel costs. The research aims to analyze and uncover for the case of Colombia: (a) the barriers affecting the entry of alternative energy at grid and off-grid scales; (b) the main drivers affecting technology choice decisions in electricity sector expansion and the decision-making process for off-grid electrification; (c) the reasons that have resulted in diesel based off-grid electrification; (d) the possibility for renewables to compete financially with the costs of off-grid diesel electrification; and (e) the policies and regulations necessary to ensure more diverse and sustainable electricity provision. For this purpose, the author performs a barrier analysis and investigates Colombian regulations to uncover regulatory aspects that are preventing the entrance and continuation of alternative energy in Colombia. Additionally, the author performs a long-term cost analysis of renewables in off-grid areas and reveals that in locations that have a sufficient renewable resource endowment, renewables are less costly and have greater potential for power delivery than diesel. Important finds include the Energy Mining Planning Unit's acceptance of the fact that providing electricity through diesel is costly and can have detrimental health effects, yet electrifying through diesel remains the norm. Similarly, the author finds that the costs of administration, operation, maintenance, diesel plant replacement, and fuel transport are not included in current cost calculations, although the greatest factor affecting the cost of electricity production in off-grid areas of Colombia is the cost of fuel. The author reveals that off-grid electrification decisions have been performed without long-term economic comparisons (because cost is not an influential factor in technology selection). Interviews reveal that project developers lack sufficient information to select alternative technologies and are not willing to wait to acquire this information when there is pressure or immediate need for electricity. However, the research also reveals that decision making can be improved in a way that is more inclusive of alternative energy solutions. The lessons learned are also valuable for other countries in the region facing similar energy expansion situations.