A dynamic meso-scopic simulation approach to modeling emergency evacuations

Modeling and developing different evacuation scenarios gained significant interest in recent years, where the management of the transportation system in support of evacuation efforts proved to be critical in mitigating the impacts of regional emergency events. However, most of the evacuation modeling efforts were focused on large urban areas due to the recurrence of the regional emergency event, resources availability, and data availability. For urban areas that are classified as small and medium-size metropolitan areas, there is still confusion at the MPO level on how to develop effective and practical evacuation plans.;This research aims to develop a methodology for supporting effective decision making and testing different emergency scenarios while taking into account various factors and their effect on public safety. The focus of this research is on developing an evacuation model for urban areas utilizing the resources available for the different MPO's and local data. In addition, this research aims to develop local human behavior data needed for evacuation modeling. These data were not available in transportation census or in the literature, and it was critical for developing accurate evacuation models.;The effect of using local data is compared to using national averages for developing evacuation models using the case study utilized for the purposes of this research. It is shown that using the national average trip generation rates lead to underestimating the number of evacuation trips generated. Also, the results from this analysis suggest that using human behavior data from hurricane regions for evacuation modeling might result in underestimating the clearance time, and demand for travel during evacuations of medium size metropolitan areas.;A case study is developed using the Fargo-Moorhead Council of Government's regional travel model integrated with DYNASMART-P software. The modeling approach developed for this research could be applied at the different stages of the emergency response and preparedness; disaster scenario analysis, and mitigation preparedness. The modeling approach used for this study provides direct connectivity with the 4-step model standard for all MPO's, reducing the complexity associated with updating and maintaining the evacuation model.