Keeping waters clean: Environmental licensing in Rondonia

In the Amazonian agricultural frontier, pasture for cattle ranching is an important and potentially damaging form of land use due to erosion as pastures degrade This dissertation presents three approaches to understanding policy options to govern this land-use problem: 1) a systems dynamics model (SDM), 2) empirical social research, and 3) an agent-based model (ABM). In the SDM, I examine the role that river basin councils (RBCs) --- one of the water governance options in Brazil's National Water Act --- might play in managing this non-point-source pollution issue in the Amazonian State of Rondonia. I compare the central tool of the RBC, a bulk water charge (BWC), to a stylized land-use fine (LUF) for failing to maintain riparian cover, across several scenarios of climate change. The results show no significant advantage to the BWC over LUF in reducing erosion while keeping ranching profitable; moreover, the comparative success of programs similar to LUF suggests these programs may have potential to manage agricultural pollution in the region. One program in Rondonia is the environmental licensing program for rural properties (LAPRO), which will require farms to remove significant amounts of land from production, and may shift production intensity as farms comply. I present empirical data from Rondonia's Ji-Parana River Basin that show decreased production intensity and income diversification on larger properties. These results suggest that for smaller properties, complying with LAPRO may bring an increase in land sale to cover debts and an increase in land consolidation in the region. Examining this further, I develop an ABM of ranching and land exchange, inform it with results from my survey research, and investigate the outcomes that could be expected from LAPRO in the context of climate change. Model results show that while LAPRO may increase forest cover in ranching landscapes, it may occur at the expense of the small producer. To the extent that effective monitoring and enforcement exist, a focus on larger holdings will help to mediate this negative social impact. These results suggest that a middle ground may exist in cases where current environmental goals conflict with legacies of past colonization and resource-use regimes.