Research On Uncertainty Of Monetary Policy And Corporate Financial Decision

With the deepening of economic globalization,the closer economic ties of various countries,and the frequent occurrence of various "black swan" incidents,the global economy is full of uncertainty,and no one can stand alone.After China's economic development entered a new normal,the government and other functional departments successively introduced various economic policies,such as the “Four Trillion Plan”.The use of these policy tools stimulated economic growth on the one hand,but on the other hand increased the intent of uncertainty,to a certain extent inhibited the economic recovery process and even exacerbated the recession.The "Global Economic Outlook" published by the World Bank pointed out that the increase in economic policy uncertainty has had a negative impact that cannot be ignored on the slow economic growth.Moreover,the impact of economic uncertainty on enterprises is more concealed,but the impact of superposition on the country cannot be ignored.The uncertainty of monetary policy,as a part of the uncertainty of economic policy,also has a profound impact on macroeconomic and micro market players.As the largest developing country,under the background of Sino-US trade frictions and the Fed's frequent monetary policy adjustments,China's economy is also at a critical stage of supply-side structural reforms and LPR restructuring.There are many unpredictable changes in monetary policy and the use of policy tools.The components of the market are full of uncertainties,which have a profound impact on the financial decision-making of market micro entities.Based on this background,this article attempts to answer the following questions: First,how to measure an index that can accurately reflect the uncertainty of China's monetary policy? What are the typical characteristic facts of the uncertainty index? Second,how will the uncertainty of monetary policy affect the investment behavior of companies: what level,mechanism and channel the uncertainty of monetary policy will use to affect corporate investment;the heterogeneous influence of the nature of property rights,regional characteristics,and economic cycles how is it.Thirdly,how will the uncertainty of monetary policy affect the debt financing of enterprises;how will the expected inflation and macroeconomic expectations play a regulatory role;the uncertainty of monetary policy will affect the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment and the different maturities What impact will the demand for debt financing have? Fourth,how does the uncertainty of monetary policy affect the cash holding decisions of companies? Under the adjustment of operating risks and corporate governance flaws,what impact will the uncertainty of monetary policy have.Refer to the research of Jurado et al.,Shin et al.and Wang Bo,etc.,select 7 variables including monetary policy,bond market,securities market,macro economy,price level,exchange rate market and government expenditure.The Monte Carlo simulation method of sampling extracts their common fluctuations and assigns different weights to the uncertainties of different variables to obtain an overall monetary policy uncertainty,which can be used to measure China's monetary policy uncertainty.Feature facts show that the peak of the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Index appeared in the interval of the 2008-2009 global financial tsunami,and the other three second highest points appeared in the interval of 2007-2008,2010-2011 and 2015 respectively.-In the 2016 interval,the higher monetary policy uncertainty index is mainly due to the suppression of economic overheating and corporate pollution remediation in 2007,the "Four Trillion Plan" launched in 2010 and frequent policy adjustments,and the A shares that occurred in 2015 The collapse of China's economy triggered by the collapse.Changes in the uncertainty index of monetary policy in other periods are closely related to the frequency and intensity of monetary authorities' adjustment of policy tools.Regarding the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior,the mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate investment through real option channels and financial friction channels is discussed,and a sample of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares listed companies from 2007 to 2018 Verify the effectiveness of the mechanism of action.At the same time,it verified the role of capital irreversibility and financing constraints on the adjustment of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate investment,and further examined the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior from the three perspectives of property rights,regional characteristics,and business cycles.difference.The study found that the uncertainty of monetary policy has a restraining effect on corporate investment,and the high degree of capital irreversibility and strong financing constraints will aggravate the restraining effect of uncertainty on investment.This restraining effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises in the central and western regions,and enterprises in the economic contraction period.Regarding the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate debt financing,we examined the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate debt financing behavior by affecting corporate financing needs and the scale,cost,and time of external capital supply.Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 are a sample to test the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate debt financing.The results show that monetary policy uncertainty will reduce corporate debt financing,and inflation expectations will rise and macroeconomic expectations will decline Will exacerbate the inhibitory effect of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate debt financing.In addition,the uncertainty of monetary policy significantly reduces the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment,and has a more obvious effect in companies with lower than optimal capital structure.At the same time,compared with long-term debt financing,the inhibitory effect of monetary policy uncertainty on short-term debt is more obvious.Regarding the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings,we examine the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings through preventive motivation,transaction motivation,tax avoidance motivation and agency motivation.Using China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares as a sample of companies listed in 2007-2018,we test the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings.The results show that the uncertainty of monetary policy will increase the level of cash holdings of enterprises,and the rise in operating risks and corporate governance defects will further increase the level of cash holdings under the situation of uncertain monetary policy.In addition,part of the reason why the uncertainty of monetary policy increases corporate cash holdings comes from the reduction of current investment by companies,and part of the reason comes from the increase in corporate agency costs.Based on the uncertainty of monetary policy,this paper studies its impact on corporate investment behavior,debt financing behavior,and cash holdings,which is helpful for the further development of macro-micro-combined corporate finance research,and is useful for policy makers,corporate managers,and capital The scientific and targeted decisions of market investors provide more theoretical analysis and empirical support.