Study On Economic Development Of Jujube Industry In China Under Supply-side Structural Reform

Jujube is the largest dried fruit tree species in China,and jujube industry has become the main source of economic income for 20 million farmers nationwide.The development of the jujube industry is of great significance in driving industrial development in poverty-stricken mountainous areas,raising the income of farmers,maintaining the ecological environment.According to the national strategy of developing woody grain and oil,jujube industry is one of the representative industries of the five major woody grain and oil industries,and it also plays a strategic role in safeguarding national grain and oil security.It only took a dozen years for China’s jujube industry to climb rapidly to its peak and then fell down to the low point.After 2000,China’s jujube industry entered a period of rapid development.Jujube products have been favored by consumers.The market price has been pushed up to the highest point in history.With the rapid increase in yield,the situation of oversupply in the market has been reversed,and prices have also been rapidly decreasing.As a result,the development of the jujube industry has entered a bottleneck period.Solving the economic development problem of jujube industry has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and realizing the economic and social benefits of the industry.Under the background of supply-side structural reform strategy,the paper takes Chinese jujube industry as the research object,adopts a combination of quantitative analysis,qualitative analysis,and case analysis methods to study the production,processing,circulation,consumption and other aspects of the jujube industry comprehensively and systematically from both supply and demand perspectives,finds out the reasons for structural imbalances of market supply and demand,which provides appropriate countermeasures and suggestions for the future of China’s jujube industry sustainable development.This research system has summarized the changes in supply and demand of China’s jujube industry.The market has changed from supply shortage to oversupply.The current oversupply is essentially structural imbalance of supply and demand,ie,oversupply of low-end products and short supply of high-end products,while effective demand has not been fully satisfied.The main reason is that the rapid expansion of production scale driven by Xinjiang has enabled consumers to meet the basic demand for jujubes;however,as the yield continues to increase,the demand structure has begun to escalate,that is,the demand for medium and high-end products has increased significantly.The supply structure has not changed accordingly,which led to a structural imbalance in supply and demand.Judging from the regional layout of China’s jujube industry,the production is highly centralized and regionalized.The focus of production has shifted from traditional jujube production areas to emerging jujube producing areas in Xinjiang.By comparing and analyzing the cost and benefits of production in different areas,Xinjiang has absolute advantage in production,but there are also some problems such as single breed structure,unbalanced regional development,high labor costs and degradation of soil quality.Although traditional jujube producing areas do not have the absolute advantage of developing production,planting jujube still has comparative advantages.It is imperative to aim at improving quality and efficiency,innovating production development ideas,and realizing the transformation and upgrading of traditional jujube industry production through characteristic development.By studying the circulation pattern of China’s jujube industry,it is concluded that the degree of industrial organization is low and the profit distribution is unreasonable.It is necessary to improve the circulation efficiency by improving the market circulation system.Under the current industrial circulation model,the paper uses seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to deeply analyze the law of the market price changes,finding out that the price appears the characteristics of an overall decline trend and regular fluctuations,i.e.the seasonal fluctuations are obvious,and the periodic fluctuation frequency gradually increases,while the amplitude of the decrease gradually decreased.The supply-side structural reform of jujube industry is based on market demand.The paper analyzes the individual characteristics,consumer behaviors and consumption attitudes on the basis of field investigation and analyzes the impact factor of consumption by ordered multi-category Logistic model.The influential factors of demand include the consumer’s age structure,education level,occupation and income,while well-known brand products,intensive processing products and green organic products are more favored by consumers.The study compares the demand and supply of the jujube industry.The paper uses scenario analysis to predict the market demand in the future under different demand structures,compares it with the supply,and concludes that the consumption of jujube products in China still has great development potential.By theoretical analysis of supply and demand in jujube industry,it concluded that the fundamental solution to the problem of structural imbalances in supply and demand of jujube industry is supply-side structural reforms.Specifically,China’s jujube industry must go through three steps of “control total quantity,adjust structure and increase supply” and then gradually realize a long-term balance between supply and demand.Based on the above research,the paper mainly proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions: Optimize the regional layout of the jujube industry,each jujube production area should seek the characteristics in development based on its own advantages;develop the production with the goal of improving the quality and efficiency and increase the support for scientific research and innovation;improve market circulation system reform,increase the degree of industrial organization,improve the profit distribution mechanism,vigorously support the brand building of enterprises;open up international market,promote the traditional jujube culture;strengthen the policy supports for the development of the jujube industry and improve the efficiency of policy support.