Agricultural Land Abandonment And Farmers' Perceptions About Land Use Change In Indus Plains Of Pakistan

Pakistan is an agrarian economy with an 18.5%share of agriculture in total GDP of the country.There is an excellent potential for the growth of the agricultural sector in Pakistan,but the performance of this sector is far below its potential level due to various factors.It has been observed that the farmers are abandoning the agricultural lands in Pakistan.Although at the initial stage the magnitude of land abandonment is not so large,the prospects of ALA do not look promising.Moreover,there is an increasing trend of land-use change in Pakistan.This study aims to explore the farmers'perceptions of agricultural land abandonment?ALA?and land-use change?LUC?,identify the factors that farmers'perceive to be responsible for ALA,the possible implications of the prevalent land transition,and farmers'perceptions of future land use in Khairpur district of Sindh province.To this end,we collected field survey data from 400 farmers in district Khairpur.These data included farmers'perceptions of LUC and ALA that were recorded on a five-point Likert scale,factors responsible for ALA and LUC according to farmer's viewpoint,and farmers'perceptions of future land use.In addition,the secondary data such as historical land-use change in the district and changes in agricultural labor were obtained from different government sources.The results show that agricultural land in the region has decreased by about 9%in the past two decades.Field survey data analysis confirms this because more than 80%of farmers believe that agricultural land in the area has declined over time.The results of secondary data show that farmers are abandoning the agricultural profession.Over the past three decades,a sharp decline of more than 10%in the agricultural-related labor force has been observed.We used Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average?ARIMA?model,popularly known as Box-Jenkins?BJ?methodology,to forecast the total agricultural labor force.The results show that by the end of 2030,approximately 8%and 5.13%of the present agrarian labor force would leave the farming sector of Sindh and Pakistan,respectively.Furthermore,the results indicate that farmers believe that the socioeconomic and environmental changes are the main reasons for LUC and ALA.We used a logistic regression model to determine the factors that influence farmers'decisions to sell agricultural land for other uses.The results show that the age,income,land ownership,farm inheritance by successors,social networks and lack of basic facilities in the study area are the main determinants of farmers'decisions to sell agricultural lands.In particular,farmers'integration into the social network and their belief that heirs will inherit the farm reduces the possibility of selling land.As for the implications of LUC and ALA,the results indicate that farmland prices,weeds infestation,urban diffusion,and pressure on existing infrastructure have increased in the study area.The results related to the implications of LUC and ALA indicate both positive and negative consequences.The positive socio-economic implications include the industrial growth,infrastructural development and labor transition from subsistence to capital sector.Furthermore,the positive ecological impacts of LUC and ALA include the restoration of historical vegetation,reforestation,restoration of natural habitat for wildlife,soil moisture conservation,atmospheric CO₂ reduction,protecting cultural heritage,groundwater restoration,carbon sequestration,recovery of soil nutrients and reduction in the pollution caused by agrochemicals.The negative socioeconomic effects include the declining agricultural land area,reduced food production,increase land prices,increasing urban sprawls,displacement/dislocation of tenants and rural decay.The loss of agricultural land is mainly observed in the peri-urban areas where population growth has led to an increase in land prices and the conversion of land into residential areas.In addition,the negative ecological implications of LUC and ALA include pest attacks,loss of landscape diversity,loss of biodiversity,soil erosion and land degradation.Finally,the results show that the prospects of farming in the area remain grim as most farmers indicated that they were willing to abandon agricultural lands in favour of other revenue generation activities.The results of farmers'preferences for future land use show that the small farmers intended to exit the agricultural profession and switch to the non-farm jobs or business.In addition,the medium farmers possessing 5-20 acres of land also showed great concern about retaining the farm land due to farmland marginalisation,low productivity,market constraints,shortage of water and deficiency of basic facilities in the area.However,the large farmers are less affected by economic and social constraints,so they are less likely to sell their lands.Based on the findings,we suggest that the realistic and operative control measures are the need of time to prevent the rapid land-use change and farmland abandonment which could save the communities suffering from social and environmental hazards.These issues should be discussed on national forums in letter and spirit,and the true picture of land use transition should be drawn using remote sensing and household surveys to develop a comprehensive land-use database for the researchers.Timely availability of farm inputs at reasonable rates must be ensured.Farmers should be properly trained and guided about the prevailing issues in the agriculture sector.The R&D systems should be strengthened in order to bridge-up the gap between potential and actual crops yields per unit area.The agriculture sector should be highly incentivized,and awareness should be created among the farmers through arranging mega-seminars.