| The 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis started with the collapse of subprime loans and derivatives in the real estate market,which triggered a global financial crisis.Since then,Western developed countries have successively fallen into the quagmire of debt crises and the economy has continued to decline.Recovery has been slow and far far away.In the third and fourth quarters of 2008,the US GDP growth rate fell by 0.5%and 6.3%month-on-month,and the unemployment rate also rose to its highest level since 1990,indicating the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression.At the same time,GDP continued to decline by 2.5%in the first quarter of the Eurozone in 2009,the largest quarterly decline since the establishment of the Eurozone in 1999.The Bank of England Bank of England estimates the losses caused by the crisis,including the loans provided to the banks for relief,the immediate losses caused by the economic recession after the crisis to economic growth,and the permanent losses caused by unemployment and corporate bankruptcy.The global losses suffered by this crisis ranged from US$60 trillion to US$200 trillion.Before the crisis,the U,S.real estate market prospered.The mutual promotion of housing prices and loan demand created large-scale subprime loans,and a large number of subprime loans through the securitization process,derived huge amounts of derivatives,and finally the scale of' financial innovation was geometric.Number expansion.The outbreak of the global financial crisis was caused by the excessive growth of the financial innovation chain.The asset bubble caused by excessive innovation of financial products is considered to be the culprit of the crisis.The overthrow of "Grass-Steagall Act" since 1999,allowing the financial industry to develop all-round services and the realization of the full imarketization of the financial system leads to excessive prosperity of the US financial derivatives market.Financial innovation is a variant in the process of financial liberalization(Reinhart and Rogoff,2009).Since the 1970s,frequent and sustained financial crises around the world have exposed the instability of the financial system.In-depth study of the factors that affect financial stability can find the impact and changes of financial liberalization on the financial system and a comprehensive and systematic study of the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability has important practical significance and policy guidance.Based on the important research value of the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability,this thesis explores the problems of financial liberalization affecting financial stability in terms of logical relationships.This thesis first discusses the impact of financial liberalization on the frequency of financial crises and the strength of stock market volatility in terms of the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability,and then analyzes the channels through which financial liberalization affects financial risks.Among them,the thesis focuses on the relationship between banking competition and financial risk.And finally,to solve the fundamental separation between financial institutions and official supervision in the context of financial liberalization reform,this thesis redesigns the effective mechanism of financial innovation and supervision in the context of financial liberalization.This thesis is divided into seven chapters,following a logical line of observationphenomena-proposing problems-solving problems,and conducted a comprehensive and systematic study on the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability.The chapters of this article are organized as follows:Chapter One is an introduction,based on existing financial history events and data,which sorts out the rise,reform,practice,turning point,climax,and reflection of financial liberalization theory,and comprehensively and systematically summarizes the financial market fluctuations and crises,pointing out the importance and necessity of the study of the negative impact of liberalization on financial stability.Combining the event research and macro data in financial history,the thesis explores the regular characteristics between financial liberalization and financial stability,and the four core issues of this study are proposed in this chapterChapter Two is a conceptual definition and literature review,which sorts out and summarizes the existing literature from four aspects.First,the chapter defines financial stability and analyses the factors that affect financial stability.Second,the chapter analyses the rise and development of financial liberalization theory,as well as the role of financial liberalization theory in economic growth.Third,the chapter analyses the correlation between financial liberalization and financial stability.Among them,it is divided into the relationship between financial liberalization and financial crisis and the relationship between financial liberalization and stock market fluctuations.Forth,this chapter analyses the channel through financial liberalization influence financial stability and focuses on the two perspectives of "competition-stability theory" and"competition-fragility theory.Finally,it concludes that the existing research still has the following shortcomings:a single perspective,limited to only one financial sector or part of the financial market,failed to get a multi-faceted perspective;the use of system quality description indicators lacks a system,and a unified standard has not been formed;When using indicators to describe financial liberalization,either a comprehensive indicator or an indicator under a single classification is selected,which affects the accuracy and effectiveness of the conclusion.On the basis of the above,this article also proposes innovative points of response.Chapter Three discusses the impact of financial liberalization on the frequency of financial crises,to study the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability from the "frequency" perspective.First,this chapter selects systemic banking crises as indicators of financial crises,and uses both comprehensive and sub-dimension indicators of financial reform indicators as proxy variables for financial liberalization,And it uses Logit model for regression to test the relationship between frequency of financial liberalization and financial crises and quantify the impact of the financial crisis on the probability of a crisis.Then this chapter introduces economic development level and institutional quality variables to explore the role of economic development level and institutional quality in the impact of liberalization on the financial crisis.Finally,the robustness check is performed on the above model estimation.Chapter Four discusses the impact of financial liberalization on stock market volatility,and studies the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability from a"intensity" perspective.First,by comparing the simulated data with the actual data,the original hypothesis that the stock price is subject to random walk is rejected.Secondly,on the basis of identifying and quantifying the "prosperity-depression" fluctuations in the stock market,the stock market volatility events are studied to obtain an intuitive conclusion that financial liberalization affects the stock market volatility.Then this chapter builds a regression model to test the impact on the stock market boom-bust volatility in the short and long term after the opening of financial liberalization.Finally,the impact of the number and order of financial sector opening on the stock market volatility and institutional variables are also considered.Chapter Five analyses the channels through which financial liberalization affects financial stability,and cuts into the path of studying financial liberalization to increase financial system risk and instability from the perspective of the banking industry.First,this chapter reviewed the two theories of competition and financial stability:"competition-stability theory" and "competition-fragility theory".Second,it constructs a simultaneous equation of banking competition and bank risk,and uses a two-stage system-GMM method to explore different channels through which financial liberalization may affect financial risk.Then,it discusses whether differences in factors such as economic development level and system quality will lead to different channels for financial liberalization to affect financial risks.Finally,the robustness test is performed on the above regression model.Chapter Six deliberates financial Supervision under the background of Financial Liberalization to theoretically solves the typical separation characteristics of financial institution innovation and financial supervision under the background of financial liberalization.Firstly,it proposes the structural reform design ideas of financial innovation and supervision from the perspective of cooperation and win-win—a synergistic integration mechanism of the financial system,and outlines its principle of resolving contradictions from the perspective of methodology;secondly,it constructs a differential game model of Nash non-cooperative and cooperative cooperation,from a mathematical perspective Demonstrate the superiority of the mechanism;then it uses evolutionary game theory to deduce the dynamic evolution of the financial system's collaborative integration,and theoretically clarify the current guiding significance of incentives and supervision in the evolutionary cycle.Chapter Seven includes research conclusions,policy recommendations and research prospects.It summarizes the main research content and conclusions of the full text,proposes targeted policy recommendations,and makes preliminary plans for future research directions and content.Combining the experiences and lessons of financial liberalization reforms and financial crises in countries around the world,the research in this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:First,by studying the impact of financial liberalization on the frequency of financial crises,and the thesis finds that there is indeed a difference in the impact of financial system overall and partial liberalization on the frequency of financial crises.Among them,the comprehensive index of financial liberalization and the index of capital account opening have significantly increased the frequency of financial crises,but the negati've impact of financial market liberalization reforms on financial stability is not significant in terms of financial crises.To further quantify the above impact,the probability of occurrence of 99 financial crises after financial liberalization was measured.If it is assumed that financial liberalization has not occurred,only 34 of the 67 crises that the model had successfully predicted could be predicted.In addition,the introduction of economic development level and institutional quality variables(GDP per capita,bureaucratic system quality,degree of corruption,and laws and regulations)and financial liberalization constitute a cross-term,and their coefficients are significantly negative,indicating the improvement of the national economic development level and institutional quality will weaken the negative impact of financial liberalization on financial stability and buffer the risks posed by financial liberalization.Second,when studying the effect of financial liberalization on the strength of the stock market's "prosperity-depression" volatility,this chapter finds that in the short term after the financial liberalization reform,liberalization did trigger more violent stock market volatility,but the impact of liberalization of developed countries and developing countries is different.The stock markets of developing countries have experienced more rapid prosperity and depression fluctuations in the short term after financial liberalization.The stock markets of developed countries have only experienced stronger fluctuations in prosperity.In the long run,the magnitude of the boom-recession volatility in the stock market has not increased or even declined.A further analysis of the number of financial sector openings revealed that the volatility of the stock market depression in the short-term period after the first financial sector liberalization was weakened compared to the period of financial repression.In emerging markets,the volatility of the depression cycle has increased after the liberalization of the second financial sector.The difference in the order of opening of different financial sectors has no significant effect on stock market volatility.When developing countries first liberalized their capital accounts,their stock market volatility increased significantly during the depression period,and the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability becomes bigger.Investigating the role of institutional quality,it is found that whether it is a developed country or a developing country,the start of financial liberalization has promoted the improvement of national institutional quality to a certain extent,and the improvement of institutional quality has promoted the stability of the stock market.Third,when studying the channels through which financial liberalization affects financial stability,it is found that the increase in financial liberalization indicators will cause a decline in bank market power,which in turn increases the risk of the financial system,in line with the "competition-fragility theory." An analysis of the role of economic development level and system quality found that the degree of decline in banking market power caused by financial liberalization will be weakened as the country's economic development level rises.In developing countries,financial liberalization has not significantly changed the market power of the banking industry.Financial liberalization only caused a decline in the market power of the banking industry in developed countries.The decline in banking market power due to financial liberalization will weaken the financial stability of developed countries.In developed countries,the channel effect of other financial liberalization on the stability of the banking industry is not significant,and the channel impact of financial liberalization on changing the market power of banks is the most significant.Analysis of the role of capital regulation reveals that,whether in developed or developing countries,stricter capital controls will effectively weaken the financial risks of financial liberalization through different channels.In terms of official supervision,stricter government supervision will effectively weaken the negative impact of financial liberalization on the stability of the financial system through different channels in developed and developing countries.Regarding the transparency of financial statements,in developed countries,it is not possible to weaken financial liberalization by increasing the transparency of financial reports.By changing the channel of market power in the banking industry,the negative impact on the stability of the banking system,but in developing countries,this method is feasible.Fourth,this chapter builds a financial system collaborative fusion mechanism under the background of financial liberalization.First,it establishes a differential game model to analyze the equilibrium state of financial regulators and financial institutions in the Nash non-cooperative game and collaborative cooperative game scenario.The results show that:To improve the financial system For the maturity of collaborative development,the two should study effective measures to reduce the collaborative overhead,reduce the attenuation value of the collaborative level,improve the collaborative capabilities and the contribution of the marginal collaborative efforts,and effectively deepen the impact of collaborative cooperation.On the basis of effective"collusion,co-construction,and co-management",building a coordinated and integrated financial system is the best development plan for both financial regulatory agencies and financial institutions.In order to ensure that the financial regulators and financial institutions achieve the Pareto optimal solution of both parties under the optimal system returns,this thesis puts forward a reasonable range of reference for the distribution of income coefficients.Then,based on the evolutionary game theory,the dynamic evolution of the financial system's collaborative integration is analyzed.It can be seen that if the financial regulatory agencies and financial institutions cannot build a cooperatively developed financial system,they will inevitably move to a state of disintegration and independence.In the collaborative integration mechanism,the lower the collaborative expenditures invested by financial regulators and financial institutions,the greater the estimated collaborative cooperation effort(scale),the higher the collaborative return rate,and the lower the opportunistic return.The greater the probability that the financial system will eventually tend to coordinately develop a stable strategy during the dynamic evolutionary game.In order to achieve a fair-oriented collaborative system,both parties need to make clear in the form of a contract in advance the rights they should enjoy and the obligations they need to undertake;in addition,the transfer of income will also consolidate the partners to continue to adopt cooperation strategies.There are three main innovations in this article:theoretical innovation,research content innovation and research method innovation.First,this thesis tries to theoretically construct a new and effective Nash equilibrium model that integrates financial innovation and financial supervision in the context of financial optimizationSecond,this thesis does an advanced and in-depth research on financial liberalization and its impact on financial stability.First,it describes the "financial liberalization" variable from the overall and partial dimensions.The overall indicator is the financial reform index,which includes seven sub-categories of financial liberalization reform.The partial indicator is capital account opening and stock market opening.By this mean,when empirically analyzing the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability,it not only avoids the traditional problem of overly generalizing financial liberalization,but also corrects the deviation caused by using only partial liberalization data,thereby effectively enriching and perfecting the empirical results;Second,after analysis,it was found that financial liberalization led to an increase in the frequency of financial crises and an increase in the intensity of stock market volatility,thereby the empirical analysis was conducted from two dimensions of "frequency" and "amplitude"(or "intensity");Third,when analysing the channel through which financial liberalization affects financial stability,it introduces institution quality,focusing on the role played by institution quality in financial liberalization affecting financial stability.At the same time,the full sample countries are divided into two groups,developed countries and developing countries,and a comparative analysis of the different effects of institutional quality in countries with different levels of economic development is performed.Existing literature studies on the role of institutional quality in financial markets are mostly concentrated in some financial sectors of financial liberalization reforms,and less researches focuses on the role of institutional quality in the comprehensive indicators of financial liberalization reformsThird,when studying the impact of financial liberalization on financial stability,this thesis adopts the method of combining event research and model estimation.Event research results are more intuitive,while model estimation results are more accurate So the two complement each other,and the empirical results obtained are more three-dimensional and more comprehensive. |
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