| With the deepening of economic globalization and financial liberalization,the supervision and management policies ease step by step,the interest marketization pushes forward ulteriorly,and the Internet finance also has flourished.The financial disintermediation's impact on economic system is increasingly emerging.Financial disintermediation has appeared early in America in 1960 s.Therewith it arose one after another in developed countries such as Japan and German.The most important manifestation of financial disintermediation is the deceleration of the increase of bank saving and lending,which lead to the increasing recession of traditional bank credit business.Since the accession to the WTO,the economy of our country has acquired high-speed development,the degree of opening-up has enhanced ulteriorly,the foreign bank is increasingly growing,private capital has been allowed into the banking industry.With the background that macroeconomic growth is slowing in recent years and the impact of Internet financial,these factors' strike to the banking industry in our country are unprecedented.Saving and lending business has shrunk continually.Financial disintermediation became more and more obvious.Under this trend,the diversified business of respective bank has experienced great development.The diversification strategy,first proposed by H.I.Ansoff in 1957,is one of the most common means for enterprises to improve their competitiveness,and has been widely focused and studied in the theoretical and practical fields.The debate is about whether diversification raises corporate performance,but there is no consensus so far.This paper,on the basis of the review of previous studies,formed the theoretical framework of the research to the influence on risk earnings and the suitability of bank's diversification level,further analyzed the motivation and the development of diversified operation of listed bank,then with the financial data from 2014 to 2016 of 17 listed commercial banks in China as sample,using the Eviews6.0 as analysis tool,used the panel model to analyze the financial disintermediation influence on listed banks' diversified operation,and further using the quantile regression method sought for the degree and direction of influence of diversification level of listed banks on risk earnings.After this,the paper extend further the past research result of the financial development to try to bring the financial possibility boundary theory in the research of micro-bank diversification,discussed the suitability issues of listed banks diversification level and came to the following conclusions:(1)Financial disintermediation has prompted the development of China's listed banks diversification level in a certain degree.The financial disintermediation is positively correlated with the diversification level of banks,which means that the more the financial disintermediate,the higher the diversification level of listed banks.(2)The bank income added by diversified operation expanding the income source is not sufficient to cover the extra cost,so that the diversification of listed banks has little impact on bank earnings.When the income is low,the diversified operation has significant influence on it,and the effect on the high level of earnings is not significant,but there is a positive trend.Diversification can diversify the risk of a listed bank's income portfolio,especially the risk is higher.(3)The diversification level of state-owned banks is negatively correlated with earnings,but the negative correlation decreases with the improvement of the diversification level.In the diversified operation,the early earnings rise quickly and the fluctuation will be larger with the increase of diversification level,but the overall trend is good.The relationship between diversification level and earnings of joint-stock banks turns into positive correlation from negative correlation.In the low level of diversification,the effect on the income is small,and the positive impact on earnings is very large when the diversification level is high.The influence of City Commercial Bank in different quantiles of diversification presents a horizontal “S” type,showing the transformation from high level diversification is the largest in the three kinds of banks.Among the three types of banks,the diversification of state-owned banks has the greatest effect on risk spreading,and the effect of diversification of the joint-stock banks and the cities is relatively stable.(4)The financial possibilities frontier theory is introduced to consider material capital and human capital to build diversified level possibility boundary find out the gap of diversification level,so as to analyze the moderation of listed banks diversification level.Empirical result show that the development of China's listed banks diversification level status greatly influenced by the stock market,with the change of the fluctuation of the stock market,the overall performance of diversification level moderation presents an excessive-insufficient-excessive-insufficient tendency.However,the current trend shows that bank's diversified operation have invested too much material capital and human capital,and the overall development of diversification has been overdone.(5)State-owned banks into the long-term effect of material capital and human capital is higher than the joint-stock banks and city commercial banks,suits to choose diversification development.joint-stock banks and city commercial banks should make full use of their own advantages to go characterization,differentiation of diversification development.Finally,combing with the conclusion of this paper's empirical study,based on the experience of the advanced foreign bank diversification,the optimization of China's listed banks diversification path has explored,points out that the listed banks in the future should be careful to choose diversification and develop diversification in a connotative way.It mainly starts from the following three aspects: First,listed banks should carefully develop diversified operations.They should take a rational view of diversified development,root in their core business and develop in the way of specialization and differentiation.Second,implement comprehensive risk management.Under the condition that the financial disintermediation is deepening and the economic environment changes complexly,in the course of diversified development,listed banks should implement comprehensive risk management strategy,recognize,measure and monitor all kinds of possible complex risk correctly.Third,establish and improve the financial supervision system.In the process of developing diversification,listed banks should perfect the relevant financial regulatory policy and law;build the macro-prudential management framework;establish functionally integrated financial supervision mechanism and improve the efficiency of the financial system. |
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