| With the introduction of China's supply-side structural reform tasks and the implementation of “de-leverage”,the debt problems of listed companies in China have gradually surfaced.The existence of high leverage makes it easy for enterprises to fall into the trap of debt crisis in the long-term development process,and will become an important factor hindering the steady and rapid development of the economy.Behind the accumulation of corporate debt risks will lead to asymmetry in the scale of social financing and the growth of money flows M1 and M2 and the growth of the real economy and macroeconomics.Under the new economic normal,the global economy will be committed to repaying debt,repairing balance sheets and reducing corporate debt risks.In China,the task of reducing the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies and improving corporate governance is particularly urgent.In order to make our listed companies develop healthier and more steadily,reduce the accumulation of corporate debt risks,and effectively fulfill the heavy responsibility of corporate de-leveraging,it is necessary to answer the factors that lead to the continuous increase of corporate debt risk accumulation.In the micro,meso,and macro levels,we can find the influencing factors and the path of action for the accumulation of corporate debt risks,so that we can find the best way to de-leverage and reduce the accumulation of corporate debt risks.Improve the governance level of enterprises by reducing the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies and promote the healthy development of enterprises.By studying the corporate debt risk spillover effect,it can be found that reducing the accumulation of corporate debt risk will help the overall listed company's debt risk level to decrease,which will help listed companies to formulate a more effective governance system.Based on the research literatures at home and abroad,this paper analyzes and summarizes the influencing factors that cause the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies and the spillover effects of debt risks.On this basis,this paper first analyzes the overall situation of debt risk accumulation of listed companies in China,as well as the accumulation of sub-industries and sub-regions and problems,and further attempts to further study listed companies through mathematical derivation.Debt risk does have spillover effects on other listed companies,providing a theoretical basis for listed companies' debt risk spillovers.Secondly,this paper uses the relevant data of listed companies to empirically analyze the micro,meso and macro factors that affect the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies,and further analyzes the path of influence of different influencing factors on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.Since the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies is closely related to corporate governance,the nature of corporate property rights and ownership structure directly affect the governance of listed companies.Therefore,this paper further studies the nature of corporate property rights based on the analysis of the factors affecting the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies and their roles.And the adjustment effect of the shareholding structure on the influencing factors,in order to provide more targeted suggestions for reducing the debt risk accumulation level of listed companies according to the different characteristics of corporate governance.Thirdly,in order to study the spillover effects of listed companies' debt risk,this paper establishes economic spatial linkages through spatial measurement models to study the spillover effects of each listed company's debt risk on other listed companies.In order to study the different characteristics of the spillover effects of each industry,the debt risk spillover effects of listed companies are further studied by industry.Finally,this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations based on the research findings.In addition to the introduction,the research content of this paper is divided into six chapters,divided into three parts.The first part is the theoretical analysis part,including the first and second chapters.The details are as follows:The first chapter is the theoretical basis of the debt risk accumulation and spillover effects of listed companies.This chapter mainly introduces the related concepts and theories of debt risk accumulation and spillover effects of listed companies,the main factors affecting the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies and the mechanism of action,and the mechanism of debt risk spillover of listed companies.Provide theoretical support for subsequent research.The second chapter is about the current situation and problems of debt risk accumulation of listed companies in China.This chapter mainly analyzes the status quo and problems of debt risk accumulation of listed companies through descriptive statistics and sub-industries and sub-regions.Through data description statistics,the overall debt development,debt financing scale and debt risk accumulation of Chinese listed companies are understood.Further,the listed companies will conduct sub-industry research on the debt development,debt financing scale and debt risk accumulation of each industry,and analyze the causes of different debt risk accumulation status according to different industry characteristics;study the debt development and debt of each region by region.The scale of financing and the accumulation of debt risks,and analyze the development of different regions to analyze the differences in debt risk accumulation between different regions.The second part is the analysis of the factors affecting the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies,including the third,fourth and fifth chapters of this paper.The details are as follows:The third chapter is the micro-analysis part,which studies the relationship between the listed company's own financial characteristics,the company's life cycle,management risk appetite and corporate debt risk accumulation.This paper mainly studies the relationship between the company's own characteristics and the debt risk accumulation of listed companies from the aspects of corporate profitability,operational capability,comprehensive debt ratio,whether the company is in a recession,and whether the management has risk appetite.The path of the impact of the enterprise life cycle on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies is through the implementation of different competitive strategies.Whether the management holds shares will directly affect the management's risk appetite and thus affect the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.Furthermore,according to the property rights of listed companies and the ownership structure,the paper regulates the adjustment effect of different corporate governance structures on micro-influence factors.The fourth chapter is the middle part analysis part,which studies the relationship between the development of the industry,the competition of product market and the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.This paper mainly studies the relationship between industry development and debt risk accumulation of listed companies from several aspects such as product market competition and industry prosperity.Furthermore,according to the property rights of listed companies and the ownership structure,the paper regulates the adjustment effect of different corporate governance structures on the factors affecting the middle.The fifth chapter is the macro analysis part,which studies the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations,economic policy uncertainty and the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.This paper mainly studies the relationship between macroeconomic development and debt risk accumulation of listed companies from several aspects such as macroeconomic output gap and economic policy uncertainty index.Analysis of economic policy uncertainty affects the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies by affecting the financing constraints and internal business uncertainty faced by listed companies.Furthermore,according to the property rights of listed companies and the ownership structure,the paper regulates the adjustment effect of different corporate governance structures on macroscopic factors.The third part is the research on the debt risk spillover effect of listed companies.Contains chapter 6.The details are as follows:The sixth chapter mainly studies the debt risk spillover effect of listed companies.By establishing a spatial measurement model,the economic spatial spillover effect of the listed company's debt risk is specifically the competition effect or the spillover effect.Further sub-industries study different characteristics of corporate debt risk spillover effects in each industry according to different characteristics of the industry.Through the above research,the paper draws the following main conclusions:First,the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies is on the rise.Sub-industry research found that the debt risks of the manufacturing,construction,real estate,transportation,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery industries continued to accumulate;sub-regional research found that the debt risk in the Northeast region continued to accumulate.Second,the financial characteristics of listed companies,the life cycle of enterprises and management risk preferences have a significant impact on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.The profitability and operating capacity of listed companies are significantly negatively correlated with their debt risk accumulation.The comprehensive debt ratio is significantly positively correlated with their debt risk accumulation.The debt risk accumulation of enterprises in the recession period is the highest,and the competition strategies of different life cycle enterprises are different.During the recession period,the degree of corporate debt risk accumulation is on the rise;management's preference for risk is positively related to the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.Third,the degree of competition in the product market and the degree of industry sentiment have a significant impact on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.The more intense the competition in the product market,the lower the debt risk accumulation of listed companies;the industry sentiment is negatively related to the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.The concentration of equity is high,the enterprise is private,and the negative correlation of product market competition is stronger.Enterprises are private,and the greater the impact of industry sentiment on debt risk accumulation.Fourth,economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations have a significant impact on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies.The more uncertain the economic policy is,the greater the debt risk of listed companies will accumulate.Uncertainty in economic policy affects the degree of debt risk accumulation of listed companies by affecting the external financing constraints faced by enterprises and the uncertainty of internal business operations.The accumulation of debt risk of listed companies has an adverse economic cycle.In private enterprises,the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the accumulation of debt risk of listed companies is more obvious.Fifth,the listed company's debt risk has obvious positive externalities,that is,the listed company's debt risk spillover effect is manifested as obvious contagion effect.In the five risk accumulation industries,only negative externalities,that is,competitive effect,exist in the manufacturing industry.In the other four industries,it is positive externality,that is,the contagion effect.Compared with the existing literature,the research in this paper mainly has the following innovations:In the research content,this paper has the following innovations: First,there are few studies on corporate debt risk accumulation and spillover effects at home and abroad.The main research is focused on the study of the optimal capital structure of enterprises and the dynamic adjustment process of capital structure.A small number of studies have focused on the factors affecting the debt financing of listed companies,but they have not studied the influencing factors of the continuous accumulation of corporate debt risks and have not expressed the dynamic process of each factor's specific accumulation of corporate debt risks..Before most scholars expressed corporate debt risk,they chose to use the asset-liability ratio.Although this indicator has a significant correlation with corporate debt risk,it is not a completely linear relationship.This paper selects a more comprehensive corporate debt risk comprehensive indicator to represent corporate debt risk,and expresses the dynamic impact of asset-liability ratio on debt risk accumulation.Secondly,when studying the influencing factors of the enterprise's own characteristics on the accumulation of corporate debt risk,it overcomes the shortcomings of the previous research on the characteristics of the enterprise.Through factor analysis,the various characteristics of the enterprise are taken into account to calculate a comprehensive index.In the past scholars' research,only a few scholars have paid attention to the micro-influence factors of corporate debt risk.Third,in the past,scholars did not study the development of the industry and the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on corporate debt risk and corporate debt risk accumulation.For the first time,this paper focuses on the factors affecting the debt risk of listed companies at the meso level and the macro level.Fourth,for the first time,this paper examines the spillover effects of listed companies' debt risk on other listed companies,and studies whether there are debt risk spillover effects and spillover effects in each industry.In terms of research methods,this paper uses the GMM model to investigate the influencing factors of the listed company's debt risk accumulation,and overcomes the endogeneity problem by introducing the lag term to some extent.After examining the causal relationship,and further through the PSM method and the instrumental variable method,the endogenous problem is overcome to a certain extent,which makes the research result more credible.When studying the debt risk spillover effect of listed companies,each listed company is regarded as an economic unit,and a spatial measurement model is established to study the debt risk spillover of the listed company's economic space. |
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