The Impact Of Exogenous Shocks On The Consumer Behavior Of Credit Card Holders

Credit card is the product of social economy and financial development to a certain extent.It is an important financial innovation in the last century.It has the functions of payment and settlement,consumer credit,cash withdrawal and so on.In the 1980 s,credit cards entered China.In 1985,the Bank of China issued its first domestic credit card.Although credit cards started late in China,they developed at an alarming rate.At the end of 2016,465 million credit cards were issued,the total credit amount was 9.14 trillion yuan,the total credit amount at the end of the credit period was 4.06 trillion yuan,and the average amount of all credit cards were 19.6 million yuan.The development of credit cards has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad.Scholars have done a lot of research on credit cards from the aspects of economy,finance,credit card business and the characteristics of cardholders and accumulated fruitful research results.In order to carry out more dimensions of credit card research,this paper chooses non-economic factors to study The impact of exogenous shocks on the consumer behavior of credit card holders.According to the classification of payment media,credit card consumption belongs to consumption relying on credit card carrier,which is different from cash consumption,debit card,cheque and other consumption modes.Credit card consumption is a kind of consumption.Mainstream economics has done a lot of research on the impact of economic factors on consumption.The influence of economic factors on consumption is bidirectional and interactive.This paper attempts to study how natural environment,government policies and technological progress affect credit card consumption and how they affect the change of credit card consumption behavior of cardholders from another perspective,that is,from the perspective of non-economic factors.In 1960,Rosenberg and Hovland proposed the ABC model,which regards emotion,cognitive factors and behavior as three dimensions and regards behavior as a measure of autonomous consciousness.Since then,many scholars have begun to pay attention to the relationship between emotion,cognition and behavior,and analyze its impact on human behavior from the perspective of emotion and cognition.In 1974,Mehrabian and Russell studied the relationship between environment and consumer behavior based on the analytical framework of Stimulus-Organism-Response(S-O-R).The external environment stimulates consumers and causes changes in consumers’ senses,thus affecting consumers’ behavior.When subjected to exogenous shocks,cardholders can only passively accept and adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks.The credit card consumption behavior of the cardholder studied in this paper,that is,the cardholder uses the credit card for consumption,does not include the cardholder’s use of credit card by electronic payment.The credit card consumption behavior of the cardholder includes the cardholder’s preference for using the credit card,whether it will change the credit card consumption quota under the changing environment,whether there are differences in consumption intention at different time and space.It is a kind of consumption behavior of the cardholder.In the process of using credit cards,credit cards may play the function of payment and settlement or consumer credit.What function they play mainly depends on whether the cardholder repays the money during the interest-free period.After using the card,if the cardholder repays the money during the interest-free period,he mainly uses the settlement function of the credit card.If the payment exceeds the interest-free period,he needs to pay the overdraft interest to the issuing institution,then he uses the consumer credit function.The focus of this study is whether the cardholder will change the consumption behavior such as credit card consumption quota,time and content after external shocks.Whether the cardholder uses payment and settlement function or consumer credit function without distinction.Based on the "S-O-R" model,this paper takes the cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior as the main research object,expands the environmental stimulus in the model into exogenous shocks,including natural environmental shocks(air quality),government policy shocks(anti-corruption policies)and technology shocks(mobile payment).Secondly,the impact of different types of exogenous shocks on cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior is studied.The impact of the three dimensions is relatively independent.They represent randomness,policy and long-term impact respectively and are closely around the cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior.This paper describes the credit card consumption behavior of cardholders after encountering exogenous shocks with micro-data,and explores the transmission mechanism.This paper consists of three parts and seven chapters.The first part is an overview,that is,the first chapter to the second chapter.This part includes introduction,basic concepts and theories,and literature review.This part explains the background,significance,content,framework,methods and innovation of this paper.This paper expounds the basic concepts and theories of this study and summarizes and comments on the relevant research literature of credit card consumption behavior of cardholders at home and abroad.The second part is the chapters 3 to 6.The third chapter introduces the development status of credit cards in China and the main factors affecting the cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior.Chapter 4,Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 respectively elaborate the impact of air quality,anti-corruption policy and mobile payment on the cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior.Each part is based on the thought of "asking questions-the transmission mechanism of exogenous shocks affecting consumer behavior-Empirical test".The details are as follows:The third chapter introduces the current situation of credit card consumption development in China.Then it analyses the main factors affecting the cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior from three aspects: the cardholder’s individual characteristics,economic factors and exogenous shocks,and draws out the key contents that need to be analyzed later.The main impacts of cardholder’s personal characteristics on credit card consumption are as follows: the more credit the bank gives to customers,the more overdraft the customers can make;the more repayable balance the staging customers have than the non-staging customers;the more educated the cardholder is,the more rational the consumption is,the less the amount of repayable;the higher professional title are,the more reasonable the amount of repayable is.Women are more likely to consume impulsively than men;married people have fewer repayment balances than unmarried people;customers with children consume more than those without children;customers with mortgages consume more than those without mortgages.The influence of economic factors on credit card consumption is mainly as follows: the retail sales of social consumer goods are positively correlated with the total amount of credit cards at the end of the period;the total amount of credit cards increases 0.24% for every 1% increase in the retail sales of social consumer goods;the retail price index of commodities is negatively correlated with the total amount of credit cards,and the retail price index increase 1%,the total amount of credit card decreases by 0.30%.The benchmark interest rate of one-year loan is negatively correlated with the total amount of credit card at the end of the period.For every 1% increase in the benchmark interest rate of one-year loan,the total amount of credit card decreases by 50.5%.The per capita expected disposable income of urban residents has no significant impact on it.The fourth chapter analyses the influence of air quality on cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior.Research shows that weather affects people’s emotions,and people’s emotions have an impact on consumer behavior.Based on the air quality grade of Beijing from September 17,2016 to September 15,2017,and the transaction level data of credit card receipt business of a branch of a bank in Beijing during the same period,this paper firstly analyses the impact of air quality on cardholder’s credit card consumption.The influence of holidays and air quality on credit card consumption is introduced.Then,the difference of different consumption categories affected by air quality is analyzed.Finally,the robustness of the model is tested.Through the analysis,the main conclusions and enlightenments are as follows: First,air quality has a negative impact on credit card consumption,but only the current air quality has an impact on current credit card consumption,there is no short-term sustained impact.Secondly,weekends,New Year’s Day,Qingming Festival,Labor Day,Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival have significant positive effects on consumption,while National Day and Spring Festival have no significant impact on credit card consumption.During the week,from Monday to Sunday,the more credit cards you spend in the future.In recent years,with the escalation of consumption,people pay more and more attention to entertainment,education,culture,tourism and other consumption.Consumers may choose to travel more during the seven-day long vacation,so there is no impact on credit card consumption in physical stores.Therefore,whether the government or business,in promoting consumption,we should pay attention to the characteristics of holidays,choose more reasonable content and timing of promotional commodities,and realize the transformation and upgrading of holiday consumption.Third,different consumption categories are affected by air quality differently.People’s consumption of catering,hairdressing,supermarkets and so on is more affected by the air quality.The worse the air quality,the less the consumption is.But people’s consumption of medicine,real estate,culture and education,and automobiles is basically not affected by air quality.Fourthly,the model is tested by three ways: eliminating data during large international conferences by replacing full data,replacing air quality grade by air quality index,and adding fixed effect of individual merchants.The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between air quality and credit card consumption,which proves that the model is robust.The fifth chapter analyses the impact of anti-corruption policy on cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior.Firstly,it makes a descriptive analysis of the impact of anti-corruption on credit card consumption;secondly,it elaborates the theoretical basis of the impact of anti-corruption policy on cardholders’ consumption behavior.lastly,it takes the transaction of credit card consumer merchants of a commercial bank in Beijing as the research object,and analyses the transaction of credit card consumer merchants before and after anti-corruption(2011-2016).This paper examines the impact of anti-corruption campaign on cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior since the 18 th National Congress,and whether there are industry differences in the impact of anti-corruption policy on cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior.Through the analysis,the main conclusions and enlightenment are as follows: as a whole,anti-corruption has a negative impact on credit card transactions of experimental group merchants.From the point of view of the merchants with subdivided business scope,anti-corruption has no obvious impact on the turnover of automobile service,technology,culture and education,hospital medicine,government agencies.Anti-corruption has a positive impact on the merchants with commercial and trade and has a negative impact on the merchants with real estate.From this,we can see that anti-corruption has a negative impact on some businesses.But it has not restrained the consumption of the whole society.Through further in-depth analysis,the impact of anti-corruption policy on catering merchants can be divided into negative impact on large-scale catering merchants and positive impact on small-scale catering merchants.From the above results,we can see that the anti-corruption has played a role in restraining part of public funds consumption and luxury consumption,reducing people’s demand for catering with higher average consumption level.With the increase of non-public consumption,people’s demand for catering with more reasonable average consumption has increased,stimulating the demand for smaller-scale catering.Therefore,to some extent,the anti-corruption policy has not restrained consumption,but has adjusted the consumption structure to make the consumption structure healthier.The sixth chapter analyses the influence of mobile payment on credit card consumption behavior of cardholders.Firstly,this paper introduces the definition of mobile payment,the background of its emergence in China and its development stage in China;secondly,it expounds the theoretical basis of the influence of mobile payment on credit card consumption;finally,it uses the data of mobile payment since 2013 to produce the shadow of the cardholder’s credit card consumption behavior.Through the analysis,the main conclusions and enlightenments are as follows: for every additional unit of mobile payment,merchant credit card receipt transaction decreases by 0.09 units.For every additional unit of registered capital,merchant credit card receipt transaction increases by 0.262 units.For non-public-owned merchants,credit card receipt transaction is larger than that of public-owned merchants.The longer the interval,the fewer credit card receipt transactions of merchants is.For every unit of commodity retail price index increases,10.749 units of credit card receipt transactions of merchants decrease.For every unit of time trend increases,1.079 units of credit card receipt transactions of merchants decrease.From the regression results,we can see that the rapid development of mobile payment has a more significant negative impact on credit card receipts of merchants.The faster the development of mobile payment,the greater the impact on credit card consumption is.Price rise has a significant negative impact on credit card consumption through the impact of nominal price and real income.As time goes by,credit card consumption shows a downward trend,which includes the influence of technological progress on credit card consumption.The above results are consistent with the basic theory of economics.Credit card,as a financial innovation tool,is currently subject to tremendous impact of mobile payment,but it is not necessarily heading for decline.First,the bank credit card has the bank credit as the security guarantee of the card,which is still the first in security.Secondly,bank credit card is an important tool to accumulate personal credit,which is of great significance to the development of personal credit system in China.Third,the consumer credit function of mobile payment is far from being able to replace the status of bank credit card.Fourthly,bank credit card can be combined with mobile payment,which has great development prospects.Therefore,in the face of the huge impact of mobile payment,bank credit card business must be transformed.The third part is the end of the article,namely the seventh chapter.This paper summarizes the relevant conclusions and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.There are four main innovations in this paper:First,the study is a useful supplement to the existing research in both theoretical and empirical aspects.Human behavior is affected by many aspects,on the one hand,based on personal characteristics,on the other hand,by external influences,which include both natural environment and social and economic factors.What mechanism does internal and external influence act on credit card holders and how does credit card holders affect their behavior after perception belong to economic issues,which also involve psychology,behavioral finance and other related knowledge,but at present,there is very little research on this aspect.Basing on the analysis of the impact of economic factors and financial factors on credit card consumption,traditional western economic theories are mostly used in the analysis.This paper is based on stimulus-perception-response theory,and expands the stimulus factors,which is innovative in theory.In addition,there are few domestic scholars to analyze the impact of air quality,anti-corruption and mobile payment on cardholders’ credit card consumption behavior,but these effects are objective,difficult to detect and quantitative analysis.This paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of air quality,anti-corruption policy and mobile payment technology on credit card consumption behavior,which has practical significance.The second is to innovatively study the relationship between air quality and credit card consumption.This paper studies the relationship between daily air quality and credit card consumption for 365 consecutive days in a year,and proves that good air quality can promote credit card consumption.It is found that the nearer the weekend in a week,the more active credit card consumption is.Under the combined effect of air quality,the credit card consumption activity of three-day long vacation and seven-day long vacation is increased.Credit card consumption is more active in the three-day vacation,and the seven-day vacation has little impact on credit card consumption;the higher the degree of consumer discretion,the more obvious the impact of air quality.Based on the empirical research,this paper draws some conclusions about the relationship between air quality and credit card consumption,which are innovative research results and a useful supplement to the existing research.Thirdly,it is innovative to study the impact of anti-corruption policies on consumption from a micro perspective.When scholars study the impact of anti-corruption on the economy,they mostly start from the macro-economic factors.Relevant studies mainly focus on the impact of anti-corruption on GDP,total consumption and other macroeconomic indicators.This paper chooses a more microcosmic perspective to study the impact of anti-corruption on credit card consumption with detailed microcosmic data,and to face up to the impact of government policies on bank operation.Through empirical analysis,it draws relevant conclusions on the impact of anti-corruption on credit card consumption,which is different from the perspective of most scholars.Fourthly,few scholars use similar data to carry out research.This paper analyses the impact of exogenous shocks on credit card consumption by using microcosmic data of credit card customers and receipts merchants of a large state-owned commercial bank.The majority of scholars in this area are mainly based on questionnaires.The sample size of the questionnaire is relatively limited,the coverage of the population is narrow,and it is difficult to have universal significance.The results obtained from the analysis of the bank database micro-data are more reliable than the results of the questionnaire.The main shortcomings of this paper are as follows:People in social and economic life are different individuals with thoughts and emotions,which will be affected and impacted by various external influences.This paper analyses the cardholder’s consumption behavior from three aspects: air quality,anti-corruption policy and mobile payment.Although it tries to analyze the cardholder’s consumption behavior from the perspective of less research by scholars at present,it chooses three levels: natural environment,government policy and technological innovation.The specific factors can not cover many impact factors.In addition,when studying the impact of exogenous shocks on consumer behavior through people’s perception,empirical analysis is used to conduct a micro-empirical test on exogenous shocks and cardholder behavior.However,due to the emotional and psychological factors involved in the intermediate transmission mechanism,questionnaires are generally needed to obtain quantifiable data,but consider survey data is less scientific and reasonable than bank database data,so this research method is abandoned,but the data obtained from bank database can’t quantitatively describe the cardholder’s psychology and mood.In short,there are still some limitations in the breadth and depth of this study.