Customer Lifetime Value Modeling Based On Commitment In Semi-Contractual Setting

Customer Lifetime Value(CLV)is a continuing hot research topic and research difficulty in marketing research field across the world.At present,most of the research on CLV has focused on non-contractual and contractual transaction context.The semi-contractual transaction context is an emerging transaction context,which gradually evolved with the development of economy and the penetration of Internet.However,there is little research on semi-contractual transaction context.To fill this gap,this dissatation models CLV in semi-contractual transaction context,and a few findings are obtained:(1)Modeling CLV in the new Internet semi-contractual transaction context.In the new Internet semi-contractual transaction context,customer engagement is the external manifestation of customer commitment.We choose customer review data to measure customer commitment.First,we used logit regression to verify the positive impact of customer commitment on customer consumption times,and then introduced customer commitment as a co-variable into the prediction model of customer consumption times.Then,we used the classic consumption amount model,Gamma-Gamma model,to predict customer consumption amount.Finally,we combined the customer consumption times model and amount model to obtain CLV model based on customer commitment in the new Internet semi-contractual transaction context.(2)Modeling CLV in typical semi-contractual transaction context with the minimum limitation.The most prominent feature of typical semi-contractual transaction context is that it has a minimum limitation.When a customer chose a minimum amount,they actually made a commitment to the enterprise.First,we employed the difference-in-difference model to verify the positive impact of customer commitment on customer consumption amount,then introduced the customer commitment as a co-variable into the consumption amount model,and modified the classic Gamma-Gamma model.Secondly,as the typical semi-contractual transaction context have the limitation of customer lifetime and have memory effect in terms of consumption times,we used the hidden markov model to predict customer consumption times.Finally,we combined the customer consumption times model and amount model to obtain CLV model based on customer commitment in the typical semi-contractual transaction context.(3)Modeling the objective decision loss function of semi-contractual customer retention campaign based on profit.Customer churn is a widespread phenomenon across a variety of industries.In order to manage customer churn,industries adopt various marketing strategies to target customers and increase retention rate.One of the most commonly used target decision methods is to target customers based on the ranking of customer loss rate.However,customers with high loss rate may not bring higher customer value to the enterprise.With the semi-contractual customer retention campaign,the customer commit a certain extended lifetime,which can bring profit to the enterprise.In this dissatation,we introduced the profit of semi-contractual customer retention campaign into the loss function of target decision,and considered the heterogeneity of positive response of different customers to the retention campaign.The loss function is optimized by S.G.B.gorithm.The innovations of this dissatation are as follows:(1)The research between customer commitment and CLV was carried out in the way of quantitative research.In this dissatation,customer commitment was innovatively introduced as a co-variable into the prediction model of customer consumption times.(2)In this dissatation,the impact of customer commitment on customer consumption amount is studied by using difference-in-difference model in an innovative way,and the customer commitment is used as a co-variable to improve the classical customer consumption amount model,Gamma-Gamma model.(3)In this dissatation,we used hidden markov model to construct CLV model in typical semi-contractual transaction context.(4)Among retention campaigns,we innovatively considered the heterogeneity of positive response of different customers to the retention campaign,and then model the objective decision loss function based on profit.Overall,the current research enriches the research scenarios of CLV model,and provides a theoretical basis for the future research of scholars in semi-contractual transaction context.We also provide management suggestions for the marketing activities of enterprises in semi-contractual transaction context.