| Since her opening up and reform,China has made great achievements in economy.As a result,our social productivity has been boosted rapidly and greatly,with an average yearly increase speed at about 9.63%,the total economic amount having topped number two in the global economy.In terms of social life,the standard and quality of people's life have been greatly improved and uplifted.In the 19th NCCPC report by President Xi in 2017,it has been pointed out that "the Chinese characterized socialism has entered a new period",the major contradiction in our society has shifted from the one between "the increasing material cultural needs and the backward social productivity" to the one between "the increasing needs for better life and the imbalanced and adequate development".The shift of major contradictions has two underlying meanings:on the one hand,our opening up and reform has made great achievements;social productivity has been immensely boosted;people's life standards have been greatly improved;on the other hand,regional imbalance of development is apparently a fact,in which the imbalanced and inadequate development between urban and rural areas has greatly impaired the satisfaction of people's needs in economy,culture and society.If put in simple words,it is the contradiction between people's active needs and the inadequacy and imbalance of supply;If put in detail,it is that the residential consumption power is increasing,and the structure of consumption changes consequently,yet the matching supply is inadequate and imbalanced,especially the inadequacy and imperfection supply of public goods and services,which make people's needs far from being met.The approach to the contradiction between needs and supply has become a critical part of our future success in our reform.Finance,with its basic function,determines its grounding and critical role in our government and society.Oriented by the policy of "boosting growth and ensuring livelihood",fiscal expenditure has a fundamental role in economic development,residential income and consumption.By reallocating the social resources,the scale and structural arrangement of fiscal expenditure can not only boost industrial development,prompt the technical innovation,upgrade the quality of goods and increase supply to meet people's current consumption needs,but also reduce the regional and urban-rural imbalance of development and boost the consumption needs in rural and underdeveloped regions by preferential policies to increase and coordinate public goods and services;and it still can reduce the residential expected uncertain expenses by increasing investment in education,medical treatment and social security;and it can finally satisfy different consumption needs between urban and rural areas,and meet people's increasing needs of living a better life by effective government supervision and administration.For many years,the growth of Chinese economy is heavily relied on investment.Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997,our government has begun to implement active financial policies,especially in 2008,to prevent our economy from being affected by global financial crisis,Chinese government launched a 4 trillion yuan investment program,including improving livelihood projects,enhancing social infrastructure and building a better ecological environment,etc.,which has successfully boosted Chinese economy and residential consumption.After 2015,China changed it economic thinking to further reform by approaching the aspects of supply,including labor,land,capital and innovation in terms of needs management.By adjusting economic structure,it has aimed to boost the quality and quantity of economic growth,and finally boost residential consumption in an overall way.By far,the positive financial policy has been carried out for nearly twenty years;concerns have been focused on the policy of expanding fiscal expenditure:will the increase of fiscal expenditure boost residential consumption?Has the expected result been achieved?How far have the different kinds of fiscal expenditure boosted residential consumption?There exist two controversial schools of theories on the influence mechanism of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption,i.e.,(Neo-)Keynesianism and Neo-classism,and the crowding-out and crowding-in effect of residential consumption;whereas,in terms of financial practice,there also exist controversies as to the practical effect of the expansion of financial expenditure on the increase of residential consumption.Under the background of "neo-normalcy" in China,based on the fact that the major contradiction has shifted,and the current situation of residential consumption,viewed from a perspective of fiscal expenditure scale and structure,the dissertation examines and analyzes the influence and effect of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption,aiming to propose reasonable suggestion and practical policy to boost residential consumption.The design of the study is as follows.Firstly,the dissertation builds a theoretical frame by adopting the basic economic theories to analyze the influence of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption,and draws a sketch of the influence and impact of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption by probing into the influencing mechanism of governmental fiscal expenditure on residential consumption.Secondly,an introduction of current situation of Chinese fiscal expenditure scale,structure and residential consumption has been conducted.Thirdly,an empirical study has been conducted on the practical effect of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption to verify the extent of impact and dynamic influence of financial expenditure scale and structure on residential consumption;and based on the experience borrowed from developed countries and the conclusion drawn from the empirical study,suggestions have been proposed to optimize fiscal expenditure to boost residential consumption.The study contents of the dissertation are as follows:A theoretical frame has been built by clarifying the conceptions of fiscal expenditure and residential consumption.Then,the basic theories and theoretical models of the impact from fiscal expenditure on residential consumption have been introduced,and the influencing mechanism of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption has been analyzed.A two-fold analysis has been conducted on the current situation:the current situation of residential consumption and fiscal expenditure.With regard to former,analysis is conducted on the level and structure of residential consumption.A comparison between urban-rural,and regional consumption has made.Finally,the major reasons for constraints on residential consumption have been clarified.With regard to the latter,the policies connected with boosting consumption by fiscal expenditure in the last twenty years have been combed,and a detailed study has been made on the development and change of the scale and structure of fiscal expenditure in recent years.In the part of empirical study,with a view to the overall standard of residential consumption and the urban-rural,regional differences,a two-fold analysis on the impact of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption has been carried out,that is,fiscal expenditure scale and fiscal expenditure structure.In analyzing the impact of fiscal expenditure scale on residential consumption,firstly,a time sequential VAR method has been adopted to examine the extent of impact effect of fiscal expenditure scale on residential consumption from 1978 to 2015.Secondly,an empirical study of the spatial and dynamic effect of fiscal expenditure on urban-rural,eastern,mid and west residential consumption has been conducted by collecting 20 provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015.In analyzing the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on residential consumption,firstly,a VAR method has been applied to examine the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on residential consumption by collecting data from 1978 to 2006;Secondly,by building a dynamic and spatial panel data model,an empirical study has been conducted on the effect of fiscal expenditure structure on the urban-rural,east,mid and west residential consumption from 2007 to 2015.Conclusions drawn from the study on the impact of fiscal expenditure scale on residential consumption are manifested as follows:firstly,viewed from the effect result and Granger Test,the relation between fiscal expenditure and residential consumption is a cause-and-effect one,and they influence each other.Fiscal expenditure affects GDP,employment and interest rate,which confirm the validity of multiplier effect and interest effect in our country.A two-way Granger causality exists between GDP and residential consumption.Secondly,viewed from impulse analysis and variance analysis,residential consumption has the largest positive impact on itself,and consuming habits and previous income will also greatly affect consumption.Thirdly,viewed from the dynamic effect of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption,the national fiscal expenditure has caused a dynamic crowd-in effect on residential consumption,in which,an urban-rural difference lies,with an apparent crowd-in effect on the urban residents,but a slight one on the rural residents.Fourthly,the impact of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption demonstrates regional differences.The eastern residential consumption is affected positively,but the mid-west residential consumption is affected negatively.Fifthly,from the analysis of spatial econometrics,it can be seen that the spillover effect of fiscal expenditure on residential consumption is apparent and local.And it will affect the neighboring residential consumption.Compared with indirect effect,direct effect is more apparent and productive.Sixthly,no matter viewed from dynamic panel model or spatial model,it can be seen that residential consumption is determined by the present income and previous income,both of which have apparent effect.Conclusions drawn from study on the effect of fiscal expenditure structure on residential consumption are as follows.First,the effect of fiscal expenditure scale on residential consumption lies in that Granger causality exists between both maintenance expenditure and economic expenditure,and residential consumption.Among the kinds of fiscal expenditures,social expenditure and residential consumption are negatively related,while maintenance expenditure,economic expenditure and residential consumption are positively related.Second,viewed both from impulse function analysis and variance decomposition,only residential consumption and maintenance expenditure will cause positive effect on residential consumption,economic expenditure will cause a slight effect on residential consumption,and social expenditure will cause negative effect on residential consumption.All the kinds of fiscal expenditures cause postponed effect on residential consumption,while consuming habits have the largest impact on consumption,maintenance expenditure follows,and the smallest comes from economic expenditure.Third,analysis from dynamic panel model shows that maintenance expenditure has crowd-out effect on residential consumption and constrains consumption,but both economic expenditure and social expenditure cause crowd-in effect and boost consumption.It can be seen from other control variables that income,tax,dependency ratio and expected uncertainty will have apparent effect on consxumption,with the largest from income.Fourth,in terms of the urban-rural difference of residential consumption,economic expenditure and maintenance expenditure will both cause effect,with crowd-out effect from the former,and crowd-in effect from the latter.The effect from economic expenditure has urban and rural difference,which has negative but slight effect on urban residential consumption,and apparently positive effect on rural residential consumption.Fifth,viewed from regional differences,the effect of maintenance expenditure on eastern,mid and western residential consumption is crowd-out;social expenditure has positive effect on regional consumption,but economic expenditure has negative effect on the east and mid region,but positive effect on the west region.Sixth,viewed from the analysis of spatial econometrics,maintenance expenditure and social expenditure have apparent spillover effect,but economic expenditure is more likely to increase the local consumption.Based on the comparison of fiscal expenditure and residential consumption in our country and other developed countries such as America,Germany and Japan,insights can be obtained as follows:expand the investment of social expenditure to enhance confidence in consumption;control the scale of economic expenditure,as its effect is not lasting and unsustainable;attach importance to the direction of industrial structural transition and upgrade to match the industrial structure with consumption structure;balance the regional,urban-rural development to increase residential consumption.The last section of the dissertation is suggestions on fiscal.expenditure to boost residential consumption based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical study.The dissertation has proposed from two aspects:one is suggestion for policy,and the other is approach to optimization.In terms of fiscal expenditure policy,solutions to increase residential consumption should be sought on the ground that the current major contradiction in our society is between people's need for a better life and the imbalanced and inadequate regional development.The optimization of fiscal expenditure policy should be conducted from both needs and supply.Through boosting needs and adjusting supply,residential consumption can be uplifted.In terms of optimizing paths,the dissertation has put forward detailed measures in the four aspects:a reasonable arrangement of fiscal expenditure scale,a structural optimization of maintenance expenditure,a structural adjustment of economic expenditure and an increase investment of social expenditure,with an ultimate goal of boosting residential consumption. |
PDF Full Text Request