| As one of the hot issues in tourism study,tourist flows and tourism destination have gained wide attention of worldwide scholars,with many important researches emerging continuously.However,most of the researches are focused on single element of tourist flow system,few of the researches have been done on the relationship between subsystems in the tourist flow system,and the relationship between tourist flow system and tourism destination system.In the practice,many tourist destination decision makers are not clear about the tourism supply whether meet the tourism demand,or only rely on experience to judge the balance problem of tourism supply and demand,and few researches estimate the supply and demand through the way to build scientific number models.This research constructed the coupling evaluation model of tourism flows and tourism destination bases on the perspective of man-land relationship,conduct multiple groups verify basis on that,and by using the method of system dynamics method to dynamic simulate the destination response system by the inbound tourism flow drive.On one hand,this topic can help to expand the research path of the relationship between inbound tourist flow and the tourism destination supply and demand in the tourism spatial structure,deepen the research depth of tourism flow,and enrich the research contents of tourism geography and tourism management.On the other hand,this topic provide the important reference basis,such as to helps the tourism destination decision makers control the balance of tourism supply and demand,construct the tourism products system of meet the market demand and carry out targeted market promotion and campaign,etc.This research relies on the National Natural Science Foundation Project of China[The Tourist Flow and Destination Coupling:A Study on Factors,Models and Mechanism—A Case Study of Six Major Cities Inbound Tourism(NO.41271158)].This thesis,combining system science,tourism geography,urban geography,regional economics and management,adopting the methods of questionnaire survey,mathematical modeling,the structural equation model,system dynamics by using such computer software as SPSS,AMOS and VENSIM,based on statistics published by state authorities since 1994 and 2945 questionnaires from market sampling surveys in which the writer participated in 2012.This research makes in-depth and systematic analysis on the coupling relationship tourist flows and destination,which is regarded as the research object,by selecting Beijing and Xi’an as the most typical example,conducts a systematic research on the features,evolutionary trend of coupling coordination degree of inbound tourist flows and destination,exploring the coupling development model of the destination response system by the inbound tourism flow drive.The core of this thesis includes:analyze the significance of coupling research of tourist flow and destination,review the main theoretical basis and research status of tourist flow and destination,present the coupling conceptual model and coupling correlation model between two systems of inbound tourist flow and destination,mainly discuss the correlation main factors based on level of supply and demand,construct coupling evaluation model and index system,comprehensive analysis the evolutionary trend of coupling degree and coupling coordination degree in Beijing and Xi’an.The coupling condition evaluation of three groups of inbound tourists,community residents and tourism practitioners,which verify the calculation results of coupling coordination degree,in-depth discuss the direct cause and effect correlation strength between tourism destination supply factors,and covariant relations between indirect correlation factors,build system dynamics model of the destination response system by the inbound tourism flow drive,conducts dynamic simulate analysis,and refine system coupling development pattern.This research gains conclusions and revelations as follows:Firstly,there are obvious coupling development characteristic between the two systems of inbound tourism flow and destination city.The system factors are of interaction and influence,and through organization and evolution of the system’s internal elements,makes may coordinate development between tourist flows and destination.Based on summary existing coupling evaluation model and selecting coupling correlation factors on level of supply and demand,this thesis build coupling evaluation model and index system.Inbound tourism flow system main factors include:inbound tourists arrivals,inbound tourism receipts,average consumption of inbound tourists,the main body of tourists’ countries average per capita travel rate,the main body of tourists’ countries average per capita GNI,the main body of tourists’ countries average human development index,the main body of tourists’ countries average per capita final consumption spending and inbound tourists per capita stay length,etc.Tourist destination city system made up of economy subsystem,ecological environment subsystem and social culture subsystem,the main factors including 42 items.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree of tourist flows and destination city assume fluctuated with upward trend in Beijing and Xi’an.Between the inbound tourism flow and destination cities’ subsystem or whole system,the coupling coordination degree of tourist flows and destination city both assume fluctuated upward trend in Beijing and Xi’an from 1993 to 2011.Result shows Beijing level both were higher than xi’an.Between with the subsystems,it makes the change from disorder stage to coordination stage in Beijing,however,except with the social culture subsystem,the rest of the two systems are always stay in disorder stage in Xi’an.Between with the whole system,it makes the change from disorder stage to coordination stage in Beijing,it is always stay in disorder stage in Xi’an.By comparison,it reflects that the coordinated development level of the eastern cities are better than that of western cities in China.Thirdly,practical investigation shows that the tourist destination cities coupling evaluation model and measurement variables are feasible.At present stage,the coupling condition evaluation of three groups of inbound tourists,community residents and tourism practitioners,the results of Beijing both higher Xi’an,they are consistent with the coupling coordination degree,the results of theoretical model analyze are verified by practice.The analysis of different groups coupling condition evaluation by SEM,the tourist destination cities coupling evaluation model and measurement variables are feasible,there is a large difference between the relationship of different groups coupling condition evaluation first-order basis variables and second-order implicit variables.Fourthly,puts forward five kinds of coupling development models of the destination response system driven by the inbound tourism flow.They are "traditional type","economic efficiency type","ecological protection priority type","social culture balance type" and "economic-ecological-social cultural coordination coupling type".The last type is helpful to realize the sustainable development of tourism destination,it is the most ideal pattern in the future.This research aims to make innovations in the following three aspects:Firstly,the innovation of research path:based on one platform—tourism destination to research tourism supply and tourism demand.Choosing destination as research platform,the coupling relationship of tourist flows and destination,which is regarded as the research object,considering tourism destination’s inbound tourism flows represent dominant inbound tourism demand,tourism destination supply represent tourism supply,two together,discuss the coupling relationship between tourist flow system and tourism destination,research supply and demand balance conditions.By this way,it can break the current weaknesses of studies separated,it has made new progress in the study of coupling relationship between tourism flow and destination.Secondly,the innovation of introducing the concept of system coupling:puts forward coupling conceptual model and coupling correlation model between two systems of inbound tourist flow and destination.Coupling is the closely interdependent and interaction phenomenon between two or more than two systems.This topic introduce physics coupling concept of the relationship between tourist flow and destination,from the perspective of supply and demand,puts forward coupling conceptual model and coupling correlation model,and based on the summary of the existing coupling evaluation model and select coupling correlation factors on level of supply and demand,build coupling evaluation model and index system,analyze the evolutionary trend of coupling coordination degree of Beijing and Xi’an from 1993 to 2011.Thirdly,found that five coupling development models of the destination response system by the inbound tourism flow drive.Innovative introduce system dynamics,found that there are five coupling development models of the destination response system by the inbound tourism flow drive.They are "Traditional type","economic efficiency type","ecological protection priority type’’,"social culture balance type" and"economic-ecological-social cultural coordination coupling type".The last type is the most ideal pattern in the future.Due to the limitation of research time and research ability,this paper only chose two tourist destination cities,its’ limited in universality and representativeness.The author will introduce the research conclusion to other cities for a more in-depth study in the later research,and deepen research results. |
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