| With the rapid development of science and technology,the internet has evolved from the traditional means of science and technology to the protagonist of the financial industry.The popular internet banking,block chain,big data and cloud-computing-based financial technology,all these reflect the profound impacts of the internet on the financial industry.As the backbone of the financial technology,internet finance broke through the current financial operation system and management mechanism with its richness,universality,transparency and other characteristics in the current situation where financing efficiency is low,and funding mismatch is serious in the financial markets,perfectly fusing financial services into real life and changing people’s daily behavior patterns.By the third quarter of 2017,the amount of the third party payment was close to 30 trillion yuan,the number of existing P2P network financing platforms is more than 5000,and the sales volume of the internet fund represented by Alibaba platform has exceeded 1 trillion and 550 billion yuan.The development of internet banking is the inevitable result of financial disintermediation,but the internet finance expansion also means that the resources and market shares of commercial banks are constantly eroded.According to the statistics of the central bank,RMB loan has been innovated repeatedly in recent years,but RMB deposit has declined.Among them,the most obvious decline was in July 2014,when RMB deposits were reduced by 1 trillion and 980 billion yuan,1 trillion and 730 billion yuan more than the same period of last year.Similarly,household deposits reduced by 1 trillion and 80 billion yuan,and non-financial enterprise deposits reduced by 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan.Such a large-scale deposit loss is closely related to the popularity of many internet financial products.As an innovative financial mode,internet finance has opened up a unique financial market,and formed a non-traditional investment platform,payment and settlement system.On one hand,the complex competition and cooperation between the traditional financial institutions and internet finance have a strong impact on the traditional financial institutions,and meanwhile it opens the channels of risk contagion,with the superposition of shocks and contagion easily leading to risks on the other hand,and the internetized banking systemic risk comes first.The internetized banking systemic risk refers to the possibility that when most banks suffer from the direct and indirect impacts of the development of the internet finance,or are influenced by the direct or indirect contagion of the internet financial risks,they lose their basic function.Unfortunately,the current systemic risk theories cannot fully explain the banking systemic risk caused by the rapid development of internet finance,and the risk transmission mechanisms summed up by current researches cannot fully cover risk transmission channels through capital and information due to the irrational growth of the internet finance.In addition,the existing researches lack the correlation-based risk measurement systems and the macro-Prudential-mechanism based supervision modes.Therefore,with the complex network theory as the theoretical framework,this paper studies the systemic risk of internet banking,based on the interaction between internet finance and the banking industry.In the complex network of internet finance and traditional banking industry,both internet finance and banking industry are central nodes,which obey the rules of self-organization and self-adaption.Under a circumstance of unrestricted development of each other,they gradually formed a relationship of competition and cooperation,which is demonstrated in the following activities.For instance,some businesses of the banking industry are taken up by internet finance;the internet finance exerts impacts on the macro economy,reducing the profit level of commercial banks indirectly;the internet finance platforms construct a fund trusteeship with commercial banks to spread the risk to the banking industry;internet finance communicates its own crisis to the banking industry through the effect of crisis news.Due to the inherent vulnerability of complex networks,the interaction between internet finance and banking industry has triggered the internetized banking systemic risk.This paper analyzes specific generating mechanism and transmission mechanism of the internetized banking systemic risk,which includes a direct generating mechanism through assets,liabilities,intermediary business channels,the indirect generating mechanism through the impacts of macroeconomic variables on the profitability of commercial banks,contagious contagion mechanism composed of various channels of fund storage and management,and contactless contagious mechanism composed of media,herd and strategic channels.With internet finance at a development advantage,and the banking industry at a disadvantage,internet finance shocks the banking industry,or communicates its own risks to the banking sector through these four mechanisms.Coupled with the strong competition of homogenization,intensified macroeconomic shocks,excessive correlation and psychological expectations of investors,the operation and survival of banking industry were affected,and ultimately the banking industry lost its basic functions.In addition to describing the triggering mechanisms of the internetized banking systemic risk,the article also uses the DID model,GMM model,VAR model,DCC-BEKK-MVGARCH model and OLS model to make an empirical test of generation and transmission mechanism,with all the results significantly proving the existence and effectiveness of the mechanisms.After that,we extend the SCCA model to measure the systemic risk of the current internet banking,find out the factors that affect the risk change,and predict the risk level in the future within a certain period after validating the fitting effect.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical evidence,this paper innovates macro Prudential risk management theory to regulate the systemic risk in the Internet banking industry.From the perspectives of internet finance,banking industry and financial supervision departments respectively,this paper proposed 16 specific policy recommendations,such as establishing the " Council for financial stability and development of the State Council" as the regulatory body,defining supervision"sandbox"mode,financial science and technology as the means of supervision,creating financial internet red man,transforming cloud pattern,establishing standard and early warning platform,creating a transparent legal environment,a long-term supervision mechanism and etc..Establishing and improving the financial supervision system and keeping the bottom line of non-systemic financial risk is the basic requirements of President Xi Jinping’s thoughts of the new era socialism with Chinese characteristics,the scientific deployment of the practice and exploration of the financial reform in China,and an action guide to maintaining financial reform and development.Therefore,from the perspective of complex network,studying the generation,contagion,measurement and supervision of internetized banking systemic risk is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of banking industry and even for the whole financial industry in China. |
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