Study On The Economic Effect Evaluation Of Agricultural Subsidy Policy

Because of the public attribute,weakness and basic status of agriculture in the national economy,the main countries in the world have all implemented policies of supporting and protecting agriculture.Agricultural subsidy policy is the most important policy tool for the state's policy system of agricultural support and protection.Since 2004,the party and the state have abolished agricultural tax,and have formulated and implemented successively the agricultural subsidy policy represented by direct grain subsidies,comprehensive agricultural subsidies and superior seed subsidies.All the policies have its unique subdivision goals.The overall goal is to ensure food security,stabilize agricultural production,raise farmers' income and promote the overall revitalization of the rural area.However,whether the agricultural subsidy policy can achieve the expected goal is highly dependent on the actual implementation of the policy.How is the agricultural subsidy policy implemented in practice?Is it consistent with its formulation?Can it achieve the desired goal?The above questions are widely concerned by politicians,academia and all sectors of society.To answer the above questions,it is of great realistic meaning and practical value to the government to formulate and improve the agricultural subsidy policy,to better solve the san-nong issues and to promote the comprehensive implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy.The aim of this paper is to analyze and discuss the economic effects of different agricultural subsidy policies in theory,to summarize and comb the actual implementation of the three agricultural subsidy policies(direct grain subsidies,comprehensive agricultural subsidies and superior seed subsidies),to discuss the actual effects of the three agricultural subsidy policies,and to provide scientific basis for the party and the government to formulate and improve the agricultural subsidy policy.In order to achieve the above goals,the main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)use for reference the theory of producer behavior and consumer behavior to construct a theoretical analysis framework to explore the economic effects of the three agricultural subsidy policies and to put forward theoretical propositions;(2)summarize and comb the actual implementation of the three agricultural subsidy policies(direct grain subsidies,comprehensive agricultural subsidies and superior seed subsidies),and put forward an empirical hypothesis combined with theoretical propositions.;(3)using the county-level panel data between 2006 and 2015 of Hubei Province,analyze the actual effect of the three agricultural subsidy policies to verify the empirical hypothesis.The results show that:(1)the three agricultural subsidy policies have played a positive role. First,the policy of superior seed subsidy has a significant positive impact on improving grain yield(production)per unit area.Second,the direct grain subsidy policy and the comprehensive agricultural subsidy policy have positive effects on the grain sown area(production).Third,comprehensive agricultural subsidy has a significant positive impact on agricultural modernization(agricultural mechanization).The results of theoretical and empirical analysis all indicate that the comprehensive agricultural subsidy has a significant positive impact on agricultural modernization(agricultural mechanization).Fourth,all the three agricultural subsidy policies have a significant positive impact on improving farmers' income.(2)the effect of the three agricultural subsidy policies is declining and the efficiency is decreasing.First,the three agricultural subsidy policies have evolved into Farmers'income subsidies,and the policies lack directivity,accuracy and effectiveness.Second,the three agricultural subsidy policies are not linked to the production of agriculture(grain),the policy effect is declining,and the efficiency is decreasing.According to the conclusion of the study,the following policy suggestions are put forward:(1)adjusting and modifying the three subsidy policies:improving the directivity,accuracy and effectiveness of the policy,improving the policy effectiveness,maintaining the continuity of the subsidy policy,ensuring the basic interests of the farmers,and increasing the support for agricultural and rural areas through the "green box policy".(2)improve the efficiency of the use of subsidized funds:promoting the integration of appropriate merging of agricultural funds,implementing the differential subsidy policy,widening the source of subsidy funds,expanding the object of agricultural subsidies,promoting the subsidy to the new management subject,and strengthening the support for the moderate scale management of grain.(3)improve and innovate the agricultural subsidy policy:issuing agricultural protection support subsidy according to the fixed standard,strengthening and adding the strong agricultural subsidy policy,giving priority to the "green box" subsidy in the subsidy mode,and innovating the way of agricultural subsidies to prevent the leakage of agricultural subsidy funds.(4)strengthen the propaganda and supervision of agricultural subsidy policy:adopting various channels to propagate the policy of agricultural subsidies,strengthening the supervision mechanism of agricultural subsidies,and promoting the legalization of agricultural subsidies.The main innovations of this research are:(1)building a new theoretical analysis framework.This paper constructs a theoretical framework for the economic effect of the three agricultural subsidy policies,and analyzes the economic effects of the three agricultural subsidy policies in detail and carefully as well as putting forward 9 theoretical propositions.(2)adopting county-level macro data and new research perspective.The existed literature mostly uses micro data to assess the effect of the agricultural subsidy policy,exhibiting disadvantages of "see only the trees without the forest".This paper,using the county-level macro panel data between 2006 and 2015 of Hubei Province,enriches the existing literature and provides a new research perspective.