| Since 21st century,the problem of global ecological environment has become increasingly serious.Especially the problems,such as global warming,water resources deterioration,soil degradation,biodiversity reduction and so on,are threatening the survival of mankind.These eco-environment problems and the impact of human activities on them become a serious problem for regional development which cannot be ignored.Therefore,the spatial-temporal changes analysis of regional ecological land providing ecosystem services,the probe of human-natural interaction,and the security layout of ecological land are very important for solving the issues of ecological environment,alleviating the pressure of the ecological environment,and promoting regional sustainable utilization and ecological environment protection.This study selected Yingkou city as the study area and systematically analyzed change feature of its ecological land spatial patterns,ecosystem quality and ecosystem service values at various spatial-temporal scales from the pattern-quality-service perspective.Then,the driving factors of ecological land change processes and landscape fragmentation patterns were identified by survival model and spatial regression models.Finally,the spatial layout of ecological land was optimized based on the multi-agent model.The multi-agent model considered both ecological protection of the multi-agents’ intentions of(i.e.,governments,departments,residents etc.)and the impact of natural and social-economic aspects.This method can contribute to the rational allocation of regional ecological land,the optimization of ecological landscape spatial patterns,the improvement of ecosystem quality and ecosystem service values and supporting decision-making of reasonable and effective protection of the existing ecological environment.(1)In view of no uniformity and the limitations of the existing ecological land evaluation methods,we proposed the research technique framework of spatial-temporal changes of ecological land to analyze the spatial features of ecological land at different spatial scales.The regional ecological land spatial patterns,ecosystem quality and ecosystem service values were assessed selectively at multiple scales,such as administrative region scales on a basis of administrative regions(i.e.,city and town domain),block scales,patch scale and different impact factors(i.e.,the conditions of terrain,traffic and water environment),to understand the conditions of regional ecological land and provide suggestions for the dynamic monitoring of ecological land use and protection of ecological environment.First,the number and structure features of ecological land in Yingkou city and impact factors of different zones were analyzed by land dynamic model and land transfer matrix in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015.Ecological landscape fragmentation patterns at landscape level were measured by the landscape indexes and ecological landscape fragmentation processes were measured at patch level by the neighborhood rules.1)The area of cropland,forest,and water in Yingkou reduced year by year.The change speed of cropland was higher than that of other ecological land types,while the decrease rate of cropland reduced year by year.2)At landscape level,cropland had higher level of landscape fragmentation in 2010.Forest landscape and water landscape had highest degree of landscape fragmentation in 2015.The shrinkage and subdivision processes were the main forest landscape fragmentation processes.Secondly,ecosystem quality parameters were evaluated by means of the remote sensing model and improved CASA model,including vegetation index(NDVI)and net primary productivity(NPP)of ecosystem.The changes of ecological system has strong characteristics of being seasonal and spatial heterogeneity.1)Vegetation index had a maximum value between July and September,while a minimum value in January or February.The value of vegetation index gradually decreased from southeast to northwest.Higher values of vegetation index were distributed in the areas which are flat,with low altitude area,and far away from the railways,highways,national ways,provincial ways and county ways.2)The overall changes of net primary productivity of ecosystem were decreased at the beginning and then increased gradually from 2000 to 2015.The higher values of all years were in July or August,and the values were diminishing gradually in two sides of one year.From the spatial perspective,the high values of net primary productivity were in the southeast and the low values were in the west.As time goes on,the accumulation of net primary productivity was increased from southeast to northwest.From the perspective of vegetation type,the values of net primary productivity of deciduous broad-leaved forest were relatively higher.Finally,the spatial and temporal variation values of total ecosystem service and different ecosystem services values of region(e.g.district and town domain)and different land cover types were evaluated based on the improved equivalent factor method,taking regional biomass into consideration.The variation of ecosystem services of patches were evaluated based on the improved equivalent factor method,involving proximity effect.1)The total value of ecosystem services of Yingkou city was highest in 2010,and lowest in 2005.The highest values were generally in July or June,and the values of other months were gradually decreasing in four years.2)With a view from land cover types,the ecosystem service value of forest was highest,the value of water and cropland were high.3)In terms of the value of ecosystem service types,regulating function value was highest.4)The high total values of ecosystem service were in the southeast and the west,and the low values were in the northeast and southwest.5)Taken as an example the variation of biodiversity conservation service,the changed patches with strong negative effects on the variation of biodiversity conservation services were mainly distributed in the west of the study area,and these areas were with obvious urban sprawl.On the other hand,the patches with strong positive effect on the variation of biodiversity conservation services were mainly distributed in the southeast of the study area where there was abundant forest land resources.(2)Due to the temporal limitations of traditional statistical analysis model,the driving factors of spatial and temporal variations of different ecological land types were analyzed by the survival model.And the driving factors of landscape fragmentation patterns at landscape level were identified by spatial regression models and the driving factors of landscape fragmentation processes were identified by the spatial statistical analysis model.First,spatio-temporal driving factors of ecological land were analyzed by the survival model,to identify the varied impact of topography,social economy and spatial neighborhood factors of ecological land tempo-spatial change.1)The higher the gross domestic product was,the higher the altitude was,or the farther away from county ways the location was,the higher risk of the cropland decrease was.And the elevation impact on cropland changed in accordance with time changing.2)At the early stages of study periods(2000-2015),the forest land with higher economic development,lower population density,farther away from national and provincial ways,or closer to city would have a higher risk to decrease.As time passing by,the probability of the population increasing and the forest land decreasing would become increased.3)At the early stages of study periods,population,distance to national ways and country ways were the main factors affecting water change.But as time going on,population and distance to county ways would become the main impact factors of water change.Second,take the forest landscape as an example.The impact factors of ecological land landscape fragmentation pattern at landscape level at different block scales were identified through the spatial lag model and spatial error model.And the impact factors of landscape fragmentation process of the ecological land were identified at patch level by the spatial analysis method.1)The results in this study demonstrated elevation,slope,distance to city,distance to province roads,and gross domestic product significantly influenced forest landscape fragmentation from a spatial perspective.These results also indicated that the determinants and their effects on forest fragmentation varied with the changes of scales and time.2)From the perspective of landscape fragmentation process at patch level,different landscape fragmentation process gradually concentrated in flat area at low altitude.With the distance to the county ways increasing,the areas of different forest landscape fragmentation processes were gradually reduced,and slowly approached zero.(3)In order to meet the needs of diversified application of decision-makers in land use planning and spatial geographic information,multi-agent model was used to allocate regional ecological land.The model considered various stakeholders’ intentions of ecological protection,including governments,departments(e.g.agriculture department,forestry department,land and resources management department,hydraulic department and environmental protection departments),and residents,and also considered the impact of natural and social-economic factors.The purpose of the research is to strengthen management of quality of cultivated land,stable regional vegetation index and ecosystem net primary productivity,protect drinking water source reserves,nature reserves,scenic spots,forest park,wetland park,and other important ecological plaque,and strengthen the regional reconstruction and recovery management of ecological sensitive area,ecological fragile area and ecological service function important.On a basis of considering the objective impact factors(e.g.terrain,economic and population and spatial neighborhood factors)by the survival model,the subjective factors(e.g.multi-agent decision-making behaviors of governments,departments and the residents from the pattern,quality and the service of ecological land)on ecological land were considered by agent model,the ecological land spatial layout was simulated.Meanwhile the lost area of ecological land was identified.The loss of croplands mainly surrounded the urban zone of Yingkou.The loss of forest land were mainly roughly edges of hills in southeastern area.The loss of water were mainly concentrated in the west coastal areas.According to the trend of ecological land reduction,the relevant planning advices were put forward to guide the reasonable ecological land changes.In view of the western coastal waters,a west coast green barrier and coastal shelter belt should be built.In view of forest land resources in the southeast of study area.The projects combining afforestation and returning cropland to forest should be took to strengthen the ecological protection and restoration of vegetation.In view of cropland resources in northern area,permanent basic farmland should be designated.Moreover,requisition-compensation balance of arable land should be strengthened.High standard of basic farmland should be constructed,and the quantity-quality-ecology incorporated cropland protection also should be performed. |
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