The Study On The Dynamic Causal Relationship Between Notability Of Financial TV Programs And Cross-Strait Stocks

With the development of capital market,Financial TV programs have become one of the mainstream of today's media classification,part of them even have become one of the main reference to investors for investment decisions making,because their professional analysis of the market information as well as timely and accurately grasp of market trends.However,if the analysis of the Financial TV programs on listed companies and economy botspots will affect the behavior of investors and lead to volatility of stock price?What kind investment strategy should the investor set-up after watching the program,and which aspects should the programming staff strictly control?All these issues are important for capital market to consider with,but due to the lack of research materials,academics have little related studies.This study takes the 104 weeks ratings data during 2013 and 2014 of Taiwan professional financial TV program "hundred money line" of USTV as example to discuss how the ratings of financial TV program influent the indices of large,medium and small Taiwan and the mainland shares.The large,medium and small Taiwan and the mainland shares will be represented with Taiwan 50,Mid-Cap 100,Fugui 50 and HuShen 300 because the constituents of target indexes covers almost 80%to 90%stocks which are mentioned in the program,so they have a certain reference value.The study first finds that there exist long term equilibrium relationships between "hundred money line" fincial TV program and each of Taiwan 50,Mid-Cap 100,Fugui 50 and HuShen 300,reapectively,which implies that it is possible to set up a long term winner investment strategy in the stock market by tracing the financial TV program rating.Furthermore,based on the M-TECM for the short term and long term Granger causality,this study finds four long term uni-directional lead-lag Granger causal relationships."Hundred money line" financial TV program leads Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 and Taiwan Fugui 50 and,on the other hand,Taiwan 50 and HuShen 300 lead "Hundred money line"financial TV program.All the four long term uni-directional lead-lag Granger causal relationships are significant only when the deviation between variables tested are larger than the threshold value found from M-TAR modeling,but with an exception that Taiwan 50 is the only one which leads "Hundred money line" fincial TV program at all kind situation,higher or lower than the threshold value.From the above findings,we suggest that the investers want to gain in the stock markets should follow the fincial TV program rating and then invest in the Taiwan middle or small size stock markets.On the other hand,we also provide suggestion to the producers of financial TV program that they should trace the trend of China stock market or Taiwan large size stock market in order to increase their fincial TV program rating.Moreover,this study further investigates the relationships between each of the stock prices of large,medium and small Taiwan individual stocks and the ratings of financial TV program.First,TSMC,CDIBH and TCC which are categorized as three major industries of electronics,finance,and tradition,respectively,are selected to represent the large Taiwan individual stocks.ARD is selected to represent medium Taiwan individual stock.For the small Taiwan individual stocks,RT and GIGA are selected in this research.Our major findings are concluded as follows.First,we don't find any short term causal lead-lag relationship between any pairwise variables of each of the stock prices of large,medium and small Taiwan individual stocks and the ratings of financial TV program.For the long term,the pairwise lead-lag relationships also mostly not come into existence,but with the exception that the trend of TSMC stock significantly uni-directionally leads "Hundred money line" financial TV program and,on the other hand,the Solar power small Taiwan individual stock of GIGA is significantly Granger caused by the financial TV program.