Modeling And Simulation Of Netizens' Negative Emotion Moderation In The Evolution Of Microblog Public Opinion

With the popularity of Weibo(called Chinese Twitter)and the frequent occurrence of social hot events,microblog public opinion has been the most important form of internet public opinion,which has the characters of large amounts of audiences,wide and fast spreading,and short time evolution cycle.The negative emotions,generated by netizens on Weibo not only make a negative public opinion atmosphere,but also make the social problems intensified,and make the social stability disrupted,which will increase the social management costs.The Party Central Committee has promoted the need of correct guidance of internet public opinion and has established a healthy and uplifting public opinion atmosphere to the important position science the 18th CPC National Congress.Governments and administrative departments at all levels have opened government microblogs.Therefore,the research of netizens' negative emotion moderation in the evolution of microblog public opinion has important practical significance.Although the researchers have done many studies on microblog public opinion,there remains three main problems:(1)Studies have rarely further investigated the key internal cognitive factors in netizens' negative emotion evolution,such as netizens' silence,netizens' attention in public events and netizens' preference in negative emotions.(2)Not yet developed a cognition classification of emotions in microblogs,because classification just based on emotion words cannot faithfully decide the true emotion of the microblog content.(3)No theoretical models have been developed to coordinate both internal and external factors that influence netizens'negative emotions.To solve the above problems,this paper starts from the cognitive mechanism of emotions,and creates a new netizens' negative emotion performance moderator functions(NNE-PMF),which contains the existing external factors such as the government,opinion leaders,and netizen-crowds,as well as some newly identified internal cognitive factors,such as attention,silence and preference.Three real public events are used to verify the model.For a further study,simulations explore the effects of different attributes on the evolution of the final public opinion and the results verify some existing researches and show some different findings.For example,appropriately reducing the intensity of government intervention and positive emotion tendency can reduce the proportion of netizens' negative emotions in the whole lyrics,and the government's guidance actions may fail in the case of a large negative emotional preference of netizens.This study has deepened the research on netizens' negative emotions regulation in public opinion,and has provided strategic guidance for the government to regulate netizens' negative emotions in application.It has important theoretical and practical values.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)After sorting out the cognition theory related to emotions,this paper constructs the thinking framework of analysis,classification,measurement,adjustment and expression of netizens' emotions in the evolution of microblog public opinion.Three internal cognitive factors:netizens'silence,netizens'attention in public events and netizens'preference in negative emotions are proposed to solve some problems in previous research.Such as the number of netizens are changing and the posts with negative emotions is more than positive and neutral emotions in the process of public opinion evolution(2)This paper introduces the OCC theory(Ortony,Clore&Collins Theory)and proposes a cognitive classification to classify emotions of microblogs instead of the traditional method based on emotional words,which improves the accuracy of emotion classification of microblogs.(3)This paper constructs the Netizens' Negative Emotion Performance Moderator Functions(NNE-PMF)to unify the external and internal factors of negative emotion moderation.Therefore,the emotion expression of a netizen is mapped into a cognitive decision-making process.A simulation system is built based on the Netlogo platform and three real public opinion events are used to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model.After that,an effective negative emotion moderator framework is get.(4)This paper analyzes the effect of internal and external factors on the netizens'emotions through simulation experiments.The factors include the internal confidence threshold,attention,preference,pressure threshold of the netizens,intervention opportunities,behavioral strength,credibility of the government,and the influence and emotion state of the opinion leaders.Combining with the Situational Crisis Communication Theory(SCCT)and the public opinion evolution cycle,this paper provides a theoretical guidance for the government with adopt corresponding strategies at different situations.