Research On Evacuation Modeling And Simulation Before Landslide Disaster

In recent years,there were many geological disasters in our country,which brought a great threat to people’s life and property.Geological disasters have many characteristics,such as burstiness,destructiveness,urgency,and uncertainty.So,how to prevent and reduce disasters has become an important and difficult topic of current research.Landslide disaster is one kind of important geological disasters,which is occurred frequently in the rainy season.Groups of dead and wounded are not uncommon.Except for the objective conditions,lacks of scientific cognition,awareness of disaster prevention,pertinence solutions are also important factors.Therefore,scientific methods should be analyzed to monitor and predict the landslide disaster.Once the landslide hazard is in a slippery state,timely warnings are issued to people,and relevant practical and efficient pre-disaster evacuation plans are the important guarantee to improve disaster avoidance efficiency and reduce casualties.Based on the goal of improving the evacuation efficiency of landslide disasters,this research starts from the displacement prediction of landslide disaster points,assists in determining whether the landslide point is in a slippery state,and then studies the location-allocation of the shelter,indoor and outdoor evacuation modeling and simulation.And then we take the landslide point in the Three Gorges reservoir area as an example.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the evacuation efficiency and strategy of the landslide disaster.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,the risk classification of landslide mass and prediction of displacement.K-means and improved clustering algorithm are used to do the risk classifications of landslide mass in the target area.The higher the risk level,the more important attention should be put on,and the pre-disaster evacuation plan should be more comprehensive.At the same time,the time series method is used to predict the displacement of the landslide and helps the scientific monitoring equipment to better understand the development process of landslide and then facilitate the early warning of landslide hazards.Secondly,the decision on the number of shelters and location layout.According to the principles of the establishment of shelters,the suitability of shelters is evaluated.Then,the multi-objective evolution algorithm is proposed to determine the location and distribution of the shelter and provide the basic guarantee for the evacuation of the disaster.Thirdly,modeling and simulation of indoor evacuation before landslide disasters.Based on certain assumptions,modeling and simulation are made based on the characteristics of the indoor evacuation.The intelligent body is used to simulate the indoor evacuation,and the social force model is improved by introducing the “degree of consciousness” parameter to explore the influences of the familiarity of the environment on the evacuation efficiency and guiding the efficiency of indoor evacuation.Finally,modeling and simulation of outdoor evacuation before landslide disasters.Four scenarios were set according to the familiarity with the environment and all the capacity-free restrictions.The ant colony algorithm was used to explore the efficiency of evacuation in different scenarios and to find the solutions to improve the efficiency of outdoor evacuation.The main contributions are(1)This research put forward the “classification – shelter arrangement – evacuation route planning” evacuation system of landslide disasters,which makes the evacuation process more scientific and the target clearer,thus improving evacuation efficiency to better guarantee the safety of people’s lives and property.(2)An improved social force model is created to study the indoor evacuation.The degree of consciousness(R)is introduced to evacuate personnel familiar degree to the environment,and to study the influences of familiarity on the evacuation process.(3)An outdoor evacuation model based on "mixed ant colony algorithm" is proposed.By the improved ant colony algorithm,different scenarios are set to simulate different outdoor evacuation,and then we compare the factors affecting evacuation efficiency in different scenarios to seek the efficiency of the outdoor evacuation plan and way.The research contributions provide an effective solution for pre-disaster evacuation plan of the landslide,which makes great significance and application value on improving the efficiency of avoiding disasters and the emergency response capability of landslide disaster.