Modeling,Architecture Analysis And Development Assessment Approaches For Defense Technology System Of Systems

Nowadays,the competitions of superpowers in military area are becoming more and more drastic.The develop level of defense technologies not only decide the performance of weapons and integrated joint operational capability,but relate to the national security situation.With the emergence of massive novel technologies,it increases rapidly that the complexity of the defense technology system of systems(DTSoS)including different kinds of technology relationships.It is difficult to depict the system of systems(SoS)architecture for traditional modeling approaches.Consequently,the drawback leads to those problems such as the weak links of technology belongs to different areas in application and low reusability of management data.There are also some deficiencies in current assessment research of DTSoS.On the one hand,it places emphasis on the performance improvements of weapons while ignores the impacts on the capability of combat SoS and national security situation.On the other hand,it lacks of researches on knowledge-transfer among technologies,which is an obstacle to forecast disruptive innovations and their application in military area through combining the research basis of defense and civilian technologies.In addition,the current situation goes against the research and development(R&D)scheduling in military and civilian integration.Based on the background mentioned above,this thesis investigates the driven force of DTSoS developments in the aspects of requirement-pull and innovation-push and researches the modeling,architecture analysis,and development assessment approaches for DTSoS.In the research of modeling approaches,the author focuses on the topics including "what is the defense technology/DTSoS","How to obtain the required data in the management of defense technology development projects","What are the highlighted data analysis requirements in the management of DTSoS" and "How to describe the driven force of DTSoS in the system of systems model".In the research of architecture analysis,the author studies mainly the structure evolution of dynamical knowledge-flow network.Using the theories and methods of complex network analysis,the assessment on development opportunities of technology areas is discussed from the viewpoints of application and network topological structure.In the research of development assessment,the author focus on the importance rate in knowledge-transfer and contribution rate in requirement satisfaction of defense technologies.Moreover,the calibration method of dynamical game model is researched based on the framework of graph model for conflict resolution(GMCR),and the author investigates the influences on states evolution of game strategies and decision makers‘ capabilities in the aspects of arms-building and arms-using.The main contents and contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows.First,aimming at improving the weakness of current related approaches,the author proposes a novel modeling methodology of DTSoS in three levels consist of R&D project management,requirements of data analysis and development scheduling of SoS.In the level of project management,it is designed that "weapon system-technological service-defense technology" mapping structure,the description attributions of technologies and analysis methods of technology relationships are investigated in three dimensions of benefit,cost and risk,and the framework is constructed which includes seven description models belong to service viewpoint and technology viewpoint.In the level of data analysis,the author investigates the co-evolution relation between data preparation with SoS model and data analysis for R&D management based on the integration structure "data-information-knowledge".Then,three focused problems in R&D are abstracted which include technology development forecast,capability assessment and investment portfolio.Accordingly,a novel methodology of data description for DTSoS is proposed which relates three viewpoints,twelve models and their data interfaces.In the level of development scheduling,the author investigates a novel modeling and assessment approach for DTSoS based on science & technology roadmap.The mapping relations among elements in different levels are researched from the prospective of requirement-pull using strategical game model,combat network and technology impact matrix.With the open-access data of patent documents and academic publications,a multi-layer network is constructed to depict the knowledge-transfer among basic researches and technology applications in the aspect of innovation driven force.Second,the structure analysis of dynamic knowledge-transfer network is investigated from the prospective of technology development trend forecast.Focusing on the technology application,the author generates a dual-level network model including patents and patent subclasses using the hierarchical structure data originating from expertise of examiners.The development potential of technology areas are assessed in a given time-window combining network analysis approaches and time-series models.Moreover,the correlation is analyzed for the assessment results of qualitative and quantative methods.Focusing on the topological structure,the author designs a novel technology cluster framework including assessment,screening and optimization based on community detection algorithms.With the results of structure analysis of inter-cluster network and statistical analysis of cluster features,the author propose a novel approach to monitor the architecture evolution and forecast the development trend of technology network.Third,the importance rate in knowledge-transfer and contribution rate in requirement satisfaction of defense technologies are researched based on the models of DTSoS.Using the mapping structure "strategy goal-combat capability-weapon system-defense technology",the contribution rate is assessed through multi-criteria decision making methods.With the knowledge-flow network models,it is discussed that importance in knowledge diffusion and impacts on innovation routes of technologies.Additionally,the importance assessment approach is ameliorated and utilized in multi-layer network analysis.Finally,the analysis approach of national security situation is researched based on GMCR.Focusing on the nuclear security strategy,the author investigates the evolution path of strategic forces and nuclear strategies of main military superpowers.In the aspect of arms-using,the dynamical game model is calibrated using GMCR framework based on the results of qualitative analysis.The parameters related to attitude are introduced in game models with decision makers and factors associated with game policy are considered in models with multiple decision makers.Moreover,the different types of equilibriums,which indicate potential compromises,are identified and it is discussed that the evolution path from status quo to equilibriums and the potential coalitions with common interests.In the aspect of arms-building,a novel game analysis method is proposed to handle with the epistemic uncertainty in decision support intelligence based on belief preference structure.In addition,novel definitions and algorithms in capability-based GMCR are utilized to investigate the arms race among superpower.With this achievement,the influence of capability differences of decision makes on game evolution can be analyzed and a new study route is present to measure the contribution to national security of military capabilities quantitatively in the viewpoint of superpower-game.