| Since reform and opening up,China’s economic growth miracle has drawn greater attention from the world,and from 1979 to 2015 average annual growth rate of per capita has reached to 8.6%.Accompanied by economic rapid growth during this period,the various social undertakings have also made great progress.But at the same time,the income distribution gap is widening in China presented clearly,which already broke the internationally recognized warning line around 2000,although it decreased slightly in recent years,which is still in a higher level in the main countries and regions of the world.The social security system which is designed and operated effectively has a positive income redistribution effect.Considering the quasi-public product attributes of social security,the establishment of a social security system and maintaining its effective operation has become one of the basic functions of modern government,and the government public finance expenditure on social security also should has a positive function of income distribution correspondingly.First of all,this dissertation analyzes descriptively the change of total amount and the structure evolution in public expenditures on social security in China,the change and trend of residents’ income distribution gap in recent years.In addition,from the perspective of the total amount and structure of public finance expenditure on social security,I discuss the inner mechanism that the public expenditures on social security affect the income distribution,thus raise the research hypothesis.I test the hypothesis using the system dynamics of Generalized Moment Method estimation(system GMM),cointegration test,Granger causality test method.Moreover,based on the perspective of international comparison,this dissertation further analyzes of the typical model of social security in the world and their impact on income distribution gap.The main conclusions are draw as followed:First,fiscal social security expenditure adjusts to the income distribution through social security policy and fiscal policy tools.The coverage of social security,financing mechanism,compensation mechanism,management system and the transfer payment of financial policy tools effect the the total amount and structure of fiscal expenditure on social security.These factors effects the distribution of income as well.Second,the overall level of China’s fiscal social security expenditure is low,and there are significant structural characteristics.After the discussion of the various definitions and statistical calibers of public expenditures on social security in recent years,it is found that since 1998 China’s overall public social security expenditure keep rising,and average annual growth rate reached 17.04%after deflation,which is obviously more than the actual growth rate of GDP over the same period.Social security accounts for the proportion of public finance is around 10%and remain stable in recent years,but compared with other major countries and regions in the world it is still in a low level and is also lower than the anticipated target of relevant policies documents in our country.In the project structure of fiscal expenditure on social security,the benefits to social security is always the focus of the public expenditures recently,subsidies for social insurance fund is one of the most important.The regional gap among public social security expenditure in China showed the flutuant trend,but the overall gap narrowed in the process of fluctuations.In addition,China’s public social security expenditures exist obvious preferences between rual and urban area,but as the country in recent years attach more and more attention to the rural social security,the public social security expenditures gap between urban and rural showed the downward trend.Third,theoretical analysis of this dissertation demostrates that the impact of total amount of expenditures on social security on urban-rural gap is uncertain,the specific influence depends mainly on the initial urban and rural income,the distribution proportion of public expenditures between urban and rural area,and urbanization level.As there is obvious urban bias the public social security expenditures in China for a long time,so I put forward the research hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between the public social security expenditures with the urban-rural income gap.The dynamic system GMM estimation results based on provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014 show that there is a significant positive correlation between the per capita public social security expenditures,the social security proportion of fiscal expenditure with the urban-rural gap,respectively.It means that public social security expenditures increase the China’s urban-rural gap objectively.The econometric results over periods further show that the above positive correlation in 1998～2006 is not only significant,but even slightly higher in magnitude;and from 2007 to 2014,as the government pay more attention to the rural social security at all levels and strengthen the financial support to it,which lead to fiscal social security expenditure do not significantly relate to urban-rural gap.Fourth,there is significant positive correlations between transfer income per capita of urban residents,the transfer income proportion accounted for disposable income with the urban Gini coefficient That is to say,with the rise of public social security expenditures,the income gap among urban residents presents a significant upward trend.This finding may be caused by different urban people in various social insurance systems and financial support to different groups of social insurance in different system is serious inequality.In addition,social relief expenditure with well redistribution function account for the lower proportion in total expenditures on social security.The situation of the rural differs from that of urban area,and it is found that there are significant differences between the social security expenditure with the Gini coefficient of rural residents from 1998 to 2014,and it means that the fiscal social security expenditure significantly reduces the rural income gap significantly.The above conclusions also exsit in 1998～2008 and 2008～1998 years,and as time goes on,the policy effect is gradually enhanced.From the perspective of the whole population in China,ithe study finds that there is significant positive correlation between the per capita public social security expenditures,the social security proportion accounts for fiscal expenditure with the income gap in period of 1998～2006,1998～2006 and 1998～2014.So from the perspective of the whole population,public social security expenditures have not narrowed,but increase income gap in China.Fifth,this dissertation discusses the impact of urban and rural structure of social security expenditures,the project structure of public social security expenditures t on resident income distribution gap.The result shows that the higher the proportion of public social security expenditures on urban residents,the urban-rural income gap will also rise.In addition,from 1998 to 2014,the ratio of transfer income per capita between urban and rural residents significantly positive correlated with the urban and rural gap,but the effect varies over the periods and it is most significant from 1998 to 2003.But 2003 years later,as public expenditures fairness between urban and rural areas has dramatically improved,thus the above relationship is no longer significant.As the ratio of administrative unit retire pension increases,the income gap between urban and rural residents will also be expanded significantly.Due to different target groups,the public expenditures projects generally have different income distributional effects.In this paper,the result shows that within the urban residents,if the statistical classification before in 2007 is used,relieve and social welfare,administrative unit retire pension are negatively and positively correlated with the urban income gap.There is no significant relationship between subsidy expenditure on social security and urban income gap.If statistical classification after 2007is used,I find that the increase(decrease)of administrative unit retire pension is the granger cause to urban income gap increase(decrease),and the increase(decrease)of public expenditures in social insurance fund subsidy and the urban minimum living guarantee is the granger cause to urban income gap decrease(increase),while there is no long-term stable relationship between employment subsidies and urban income gap.In respect of rural residents,this study finds if statistical classification before 2007 is used,there is significant negative relationship between the proportion of relieve and social welfare account for fiscal social security expenditure and rural residents income gap,but the proportion of benefit expenditures on social security do not significantly relate to rural income gap.if statistical classification after 2007,the increase(decrease)in financial ratio of social insurance fund subsidy,the natural disaster relief proportional are the granger causes to rural income gap decrease(increase).Sixth,China’s fiscal expenditure on social security fails to apply its full strength on income distribution.Based on the reality,from the perspective of international comparison,the study shows that the coverage of social security exist obvious international differences,and especially positively related to the country or region’s economic development level.Europe is the most developed area in the world,and its’ social security coverage is also highest;and Africa is the most underdeveloped economy,and social security system is also most imperfect in the world with the lowest social security coverage.In addition,there is close relationship between each country’s fiscal social security expenditure level with its basic social security mode and operation conditions.In general,countries which implement welfare social security pattern,such as Britain and Sweden,and their fiscal social security expenditure levels are highest.In countries which implement the safeguard social security modes,such as Germany and the United States,the fiscal social security expenditure level medium;In countries which implement the saving social security modes that emphasize personal responsibility in social security(Singapore,for example),the government’s public expenditures had the lowest levels.Finally,according to the international comparison based on the United States,Germany,Britain,Sweden and China,it is showed that different social security mode is obviously different from the income redistribution effect.In general,the higher the percentage of the fiscal social security expenditures,the income distribution gap is relatively small,the opposite is bigger.The findings show that the public social security expenditures directly have positive income redistribution effect,but the effect of magnitude is directly depended on the specific design of social security system.This paper proposes to construct the social security system with the value orientation of social justice.Therefore,this papaer explores the realistic reasons about China’s fiscal social security expenditure retroregulating the income distribution,and puts forward some policy suggestions. |
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