| Along with the rapid development of our country’s national economy,there is an urgent requirement to reinforce the construction of electric power.In order to build our country into a "resource-saving and environment-friendly" society,we should put forward a higher demand for the management of power engineering,especially the power transmission construction.In recent years,the total amount of the cost for power transmission project in China increased.But the fund put into national electric power construction is limited.Accordingly,we need to strengthen the management of power transmission engineering cost,especially to strengthen the evaluation and prediction for power transmission engineering cost,thus to avoid the “three exceeding”,i.e.,“budget estimate exceeding estimate”,“budget exceeding budget estimate”,“final accounts exceeding budget”.Only by this can we reduce investment waste,control the cost of power transmission projects,and improve the effective utilization of investment.we should establish scientific index and index prediction model to the cost of a power transmission project cost whole process of static control,dynamic management goal.This is the need to solve the key problems.So this paper has the very high theory value and strong practical significance.This paper mainly studied the power transmission project cost factors,the static cost new indexes and dynamic cost indicators.At the same time we could set up a static cost prediction model GRA-PSO-SVR and dynamic cost prediction model GM(1,1)-BP.On the basis of this study.we should set up the transmission project cost control system which aim at the lean cost management goal and carry out a number of empirical studies.This paper main research results and innovation are as follows:Firstly,we could structure the electricity transmission project static cost of the new index——the unit length-capacity static cost index and the unit comprehensive comparable static cost index for resovling cost effective solution of the static cost traditional index which could not accurately reflect the level of static electricity transmission project problems.Under the condition that the current static transmission technology is complicated and the construction environment is diversified,the traditional static cost index of transmission engineering can not accurately reflect the actual level of static cost of transmission engineering,which leads to the phenomena that companies cannot effectively determine the static cost of the project.Combining non-time series characteristics of static cost data of transmission engineering with general theory of statistics and the method to screen and identify key influencing factors of static cost,this dissertation bases itself on key influencing factors of building a new static cost index for transmission engineering and makes it possible for grid companies to achieve reasonable determination and effective control of static cost of transmission engineering.Based on the key factors affecting the cost,and through the adoption of a series of quantitative methods to build the new static cost index,to make up for past research literature more qualitative analysis methods to cause its constructed static cost index has limitations is not easy to popularize,and the results obtained in practical application of precision is not high.Secondly,we could structure the transmission engineering dynamic cost index ——the dynamicnew unit length length of index djustment.To provid power grid companies to carry out the power transmission project overall average dynamic cost effective and its changing trend analysis and control tool.Due to the traditional transmission project dynamic cost index is not suitable for the grid company to control the overall average dynamic cost of the transmission project during the continuous year.The dynamic cost(dynamic investment)of the transmission project includes the price-difference reserve fee and construction loan interest,in addition to the static investment.However,due to differences in the construction and management standard of the constructors,there is no consistent standard for the preparation of the price difference The grid company has to adopt the dynamic cost index(10,000 yuan/km)for the transmission engineering only to control project individuals dynamic cost roughly.Moreover,the traditional dynamic cost indicator is not suitable for the grid company to analyze and control the overall average cost and trend of the transmission project during the continuous years.It is also not easy for the relevant departments to compare and analyze the trend of the dynamic cost of the transmission project.The existing fixed pricing method is mainly used in the preparation of the budget of the project budget,and the pricing of the engineering quantity list is only suitable for the formation stage of the bidding contract price.The two cost pricing models can neither quickly and reasonably determine the cost estimation before the budget nor control the budget effectively.Combining with the characteristics of power generation time series data of transmission engineering,this paper uses the Petri index model to generate the transmission engineering cost index.Through the construction of the corresponding index and the calculation of the new dynamic cost index of the transmission project,the grid company can realize the reasonable determination of the dynamic cost of the transmission project and effective control.Thirdly,we could set up the GRA-PSO-SVR combination of prediction model for the static cost index and the GM(1,1)-BP combination of forecasting model for the dynamic cost.Through the study found that the combination forecast model can be from a different perspective,different model systems of different information,through the optimization method or complement each other,each other between prediction model can improve the accuracy and stability of the single models.However,for the inappropriate rediction method of optimum combination or combination forecasting model,there are some problems in the actual application process.For example,the combination of GA-SVR model to some extent,it is possible to optimize the parameters of SVR model,but there are genetic algorithm’s own complex parameter Settings,such as crossover rate and mutation rate.Also found that the time sequence of construction cost prediction,intelligent algorithm based on mathematical statistics don’t fit,and medium and short-term prediction using the grey system model,the forecast simulation results more ideal,but long-term forecast simulation analysis conducted by the model,and its forecast effect is not stable.According to the characteristics of the new static cost index and the new dynamic cost index of the transmission project,the combination forecasting theory is used to carry out the application prediction research of the cost index respectively.Based on the application forecasting research of static cost index and dynamic cost index of transmission project,a forecasting model suitable for the reasonable determination of static cost index,namely GRA-PSO-SVR method combination forecasting model,is established,and the static cost index of transmission project is directly forecasted and analyzed.At the same time,a combination forecasting model of GM(1,1)-BP model,which is suitable for the reasonable determination of the cost index,is established.Through the forecasting of the transmission cost index,the purpose of indirect forecasting and analysis of the dynamic cost index of the transmission project is achieved,thus enabling the State Grid Corporation to realize the reasonable determination,effective management,and the control of the transmission cost as well as effective goals. |
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