The Game And Benefit Optimization Simulation In Replacement Process Of New And Old Energy Logistics Vehicles

Under the dual pressure of energy and environment,the government has vigorously promoted the new energy automobile,but in the early stage,under the condition that the technology,the hardware facilities and the market acceptance are not perfect,the new energy multiplying automobile encounters the "failure of market mechanism" and the "The extension mechanism is out of order",and the promotion has faced great pressure.The commercial logistics automobile is more frequently used than the household car,and the exhaust emission is larger,so the new energy of the power system of the logistics automobile is more prominent.At present,China’s new energy logistics automobile extension also faces a similar situation,but the back of the similar appearance is the different forming mechanism.The replacement process of new and old energy logistics vehicles not only involves the promotion of the government,the enthusiasm of automobile production enterprises,the willingness of logistics enterprises to use,but also involves the opening of government road rights,urban logistics security,the performance of electric logistics vehicles,air environment control costs,government subsidy costs,production conversion costs of automobile production enterprises,carbon emissions and double integral constraints on automobile production enterprises.Logistics enterprise use cost comparison and many other influencing factors and variables,is a very complex system.Based on the reality of urban logistics in China and theoretical derivation,this paper makes a series of research on the important problems in the process of replacing new and old energy logistics vehicles.The work of this paper mainly includes three parts: first,through the analysis of the present situation of the new energy logistics vehicle market and the key factors of the replacement process of the new and old energy logistics vehicles,the simulation model of the replacement process of the new and old energy logistics vehicles is established to predict the demand of the new energy logistics vehicles and the elimination of the old energy logistics vehicles in the future;Secondly,the game models and tripartite game models are established for both participants(government and logistics enterprises)and tripartite participants(government,logistics enterprises and automobile manufacturers)in the new and old energy logistics automobile market,and the system dynamics model is established to simulate the game and tripartite game process,and the influence of the game on the game equilibrium is studied by variable adjustment.Thirdly,the multiobjective system dynamics model of new and old energy logistics vehicle substitution process is established,which includes economic benefit and environmental benefit,and the economic and environmental benefits produced in the replacement process of new and old energy logistics vehicle are simulated and simulated.Through optimization,when the economic and environmental benefits of the objective function are maximized,the parameters of the relevant policy variables are calculated,which can be used as a reference for policy decision-making.Through the study of the replacement process of new and old energy logistics vehicles,the paper draws the following conclusions:1.Although the promotion of urban electric logistics vehicles is still difficult at present,the performance of electric logistics vehicles has basically been able to meet the needs of the main logistics business of the city.In the future,electric logistics vehicles will be used as the main means of transportation,and a certain proportion of fuel logistics vehicles will also be needed as auxiliary vehicles.2.At present,the road traffic policy is an important factor affecting the promotion of electric logistics vehicles under the condition that fuel logistics vehicles are restricted to some periods and some sections enter the city.The more restrictions on fuel logistics vehicles,the stronger the willingness of logistics enterprises to buy electric logistics vehicles.3.The optimization model with economic and environmental benefits as the two objectives can calculate the optimized results and calculate the values of the variables that achieve the optimization.When the weight of economic benefit and environmental benefit is 0.5: 0.5,if the technology of new energy vehicle is mature,the government subsidy will decline completely,the carbon emission constraint will reach the maximum,and the double integral ratio is 0.8982,and the double goal of economic benefit and environmental benefit will reach the best.The innovation of this paper is three:1,and the replacement model of new and old energy logistics vehicles is established.Based on the analysis of the present situation and key factors of the new energy logistics vehicle market,the replacement model of the new and old energy logistics vehicles is established with the "purchase intention" of the logistics enterprises as the core.Under the constraints of policy system,technology,environment and cost,and taking the purchase intention of logistics enterprises as the core variable and the market stock of new / old energy logistics vehicles as the objective function,the simulation model of the replacement process of new and old energy logistics vehicles is established by analyzing the purchase cost and use cost,general policy,battery technology and other factors of the logistics vehicle,and taking the purchase intention of logistics enterprises as the core variable and the market stock of new and old energy logistics vehicles as the objective function.Describe the changing trend of fuel logistics vehicles and electric logistics vehicles.2.The system dynamics simulation model of tripartite game is established.On the basis of the two-party game simulation model,according to the game relationship of the tripartite participants in the process of replacing the new and old energy logistics vehicles,the tripartite game model is established,and the system dynamics simulation model is established according to the tripartite game model to simulate the evolutionary game process.It is impossible for the traditional game theory method to adjust the parameters and initial values of game variables and observe the corresponding game process and game equilibrium state through the system dynamics simulation model of tripartite game process.Evolutionary game simulation is a new research direction of game theory,and tripartite evolutionary game simulation is a relatively cutting-edge research content.3.The multi-objective optimization simulation model of new and old energy logistics vehicles is established.Taking economic benefit and environmental benefit as objective function,through sensitivity analysis,six key variables,government technical subsidy,government market subsidy,fuel logistics vehicle road policy,electric logistics vehicle road policy,carbon emission constraint of logistics vehicle production enterprise and double integral policy constraint of logistics vehicle production enterprise,are selected as constraints,and the multi-objective optimization simulation model of system dynamics is established.In this paper,the economic benefit and environmental benefit are combined quantitatively,and the economic benefit and environmental benefit are weighted.By solving the relevant policy variable parameters when the maximum economic benefit and environmental benefit are solved,the basis for policy decisionmaking is provided.In this dissertation,there are 67 diagrams,31 tables and 202 references.