Research On Low Carbon Port Formation Mechanism And Investment Optimization

Port is a large energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions,low-carbon port construction is increasingly valued.Low-carbon port development is the most basic requirement for the development of world-class green ports in China.It is also the main force for China to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and the carbon neutral commitment by 2060.Analyzing and grasping the low-carbon forming mechanism of ports is of great significance for grasping the law of low-carbon development of China's ports,assisting the decision of low-carbon construction of ports,and managing the risk of carbon emission reduction.Centering on the above purposes,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the formation mechanism of low-carbon ports in China and applies it to the optimization decision of port low-carbon construction investment.By means of LMDI method,the contribution law of energy structure and energy efficiency driving factors of low-carbon ports is explored in detail.With the help of Gamma distribution function,the evolution mechanism law of low-carbon port based on deep multi-dimensional influencing factors is deeply analyzed,and the optimization decision-making model of low-carbon port construction investment under uncertain environment is constructed by virtue of stochastic decision-making theory.Meanwhile,the typical case of Shanghai Port Group is analyzed,and finally the countermeasures of low-carbon port construction in China are proposed.The main work and conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)With the help of LMDI decomposition method,a model of carbon footprint measurement and driver decomposition analysis of China's ports based on the perspective of energy consumption was built to calculate the driving effect of port energy structure and energy efficiency on carbon footprint per unit cargo throughput.At the same time,taking SIPG from 2008 to 2019 as a case for empirical analysis,the results show that the total carbon footprint of SIPG is showing a slow growth trend,and the consumption of electricity and energy is the main source of its carbon footprint.Subject to the high proportion of China's thermal power generation in the power energy structure,the reduction of SIPG's carbon footprint per unit cargo throughput is mainly driven by the improvement of energy efficiency,while the adjustment of its energy structure has no obvious impact on the carbon footprint per unit cargo throughput.(2)With the help of Gamma distribution function,the evolution model of low carbon formation mechanism with and without influencing factors was established to reveal the formation mechanism of low carbon ports in China.Unit of cargo throughput carbon footprint as low carbon dependent variable index of port evolution,at the same time with the aid of corresponding deep influence factors of China's energy consumption per unit GDP,unit capacity on the carbon footprint,cargo throughput of port group,energy conservation and emissions reduction money into four quantitative variable indicators,using Gamma distribution function fitting for low carbon port formation mechanism.Based on the case study of SIPG from 2006 to 2019,the empirical analysis and predictive analysis show that the carbon emission intensity of SIPG has been declining in recent years.Its carbon footprint per unit of cargo throughput will continue to decline from 2020 to 2030,but SIPG needs to pay more attention to improving its carbon emission reduction technologies and management capabilities.(3)A decision model of port carbon emission reduction investment under uncertain environment is constructed.Several key factors such as budget constraint of carbon emission investment,carbon emission quota,government subsidy for carbon emission reduction,carbon emission and trading price of carbon emission permit are incorporated into the decision-making scope of port carbon emission reduction investment,to make the scenario as close to the port reality as possible.At the same time,the minimum investment cost to reduce emissions into the optimization goal,based on the port enterprise carbon emissions quota,carbon abatement investment budget constraints,such as the carbon emission rights market trading price and the port carbon footprint into the investment decision-making process to reduce emissions at the same time,exam.ined both under the uncertain situations of carbon abatement investment decision and the joint effect of optimization strategy.An optimization model of port carbon emission reduction investment decision under uncertain environment is derived by using stochastic process theory method,and the optimal investment level is obtained by using numerical method.The model is scientific and reasonable by analyzing the carbon emission reduction investment of SIPG.