Research On Energy Structure Optimization And System Factor Influence Effect Analysis Under Complex Conditions

Energy is the material basis for human survival,is the guarantee for social progress and the driving force of economic development,is the main factor to keep human living standards.Energy supports the rapid development of human civilization,and has the extremely important strategic position.With the progress and revolution of technologies,the energy consumption rose sharply,the awareness and dependency of energy by the human society is also rising fast.For a long time,the consumption of fossil energy,represented by coal,oil and natural gas,occupy the most important position of the energy supply.However,the large amount usage of fossil fuel has brought serious environmental problems.Along with the energy technology development,the world's energy structure is undergoing profound changes.With renewable energy,clean energy,new energy resources to replace fossil fuels,has become the inevitable development trend.In addition,with the improvement of people's living standard,people pay more and more attention to environmental problems.The healthy development of the energy sector,achieving energy development mode shifting from extensiveness to refinement,requires scientific planning.Scientific energy system planning is beneficial to relieve the contradiction between energy supply and demand at the moment.However,the energy system is very complicated,it includes energy storage,transfer,supply and utilization.To carry out the relevant planning,external uncontrollable factors influence is inevitable.Data reliability and stability problems also exist for technical level limit.Reducing uncertainty information in the planning,improving planning accuracy.reaching the objective reality as close as possible,obtain the feasible and reliable result is of great significance,has important influence for the accuracy of planning results.There exists lots of parameters as well as complexities in the energy system.In addition,the parameters in the energy system is not independent.There exists a mutual restriction between parameters.The influence of each parameter on the system is different,and the interaction parameters will also impact on the system to produce different results.Revealing the parameter sensitivity in energy system,is very important in energy management system directly affect the scientificity of the energy planning and management.Therefore,providing quantitative assessment of the energy' system,analyzing emission production policy and environmental policy,treating system uncertainty,revealing parameter influence and interactions,have great importance in energy management.In this study,based on uncertain optimization methods,analyzing the new trends of energy development,an energy structure modification and system factor influence effec analysis is addressed.It includes:(1)Based on inexact-stochastic-fuzzy method,an energy management model of multi communities,multi periods was addressed.The optimal energy supply results was obtained.(2)Based on two stage programming and factorial analysis,an energy management is addressed for a system with main energy supply type.(3)Based on inexact two stage combined chance constrained programming methods,aim at an energy system with multiple supply pattern,an emission optimizing control results was addressed.Sensitive analysis was also addressed.(4)Provided an energy structure modification planning for Pingliang City,put forward the corresponding suggestion for local development.This study can effectively reflect the new trend of energy supply and the new situation of the optimal management strategy,identifying the various problems in energy systems.It could provide decision support for reducing the pressure on resources and environment,promoting the sustainable development of the economy,and obtaining optimal energy planning.Finally realize the win-win between economic development and environmental protection.