Study On Ecological Footprint Saving In End-life-of-car Metal Recycle Course

Shortage of ecological resource restricts energy's using,and then limits development of automobiles industry.Chinese car inventory is 71.26 millions in 2012,so it has become china's most basic passenger vehicle and their consumed energy is main aspect of automobile industry.Car industry has been one of which consume ecological resource now,and its recycling has attracted Chinese attentions.If the abandoned cars could be reasonably disassembled,consumption of ecological resource such as building area would be directly reduced.And if those cars could be recycled on suitable way,consumption of ecological resource such as forest and water area would be indirectly reduce.The reduced ecological resource will provide help to enhance using efficiency of ecological resource,and to produce renewable energy resource,and to absorb pollution.This paper builds up a predicted model based on characteristics of Chinese car industry's historical development data and some events intervened with this industry.And then the regeneration metal and ecological footprint on different programs are calculated,and reduction among these programs by using a domestic car as sample is also computed.At last,the abandoned car's metal regeneration potential and reduction's potential about ecological footprint are estimated.The main work is studied as follows:(1)It is difficulty to predict amount of abandoned cars since they were manufactured by variety of factories.In order to solve question,we introduce material analytical method to study on the abandoned car's metal regeneration potential.Factors influenced Chinese car inventory has been analyzed systematically in the second chapter of this paper,and then we find the data types which could predict amount of abandoned car.After analyzing Chinese car development's data,the reasonable time sample is determined.At last,the censored data is supplied based on gray theory through analyzing the reason that data is censored.The selling and abandoning of the car can be interfered by happenstances.It would result into the difficulty of constructing the predicted model.In order to solve question,we intrude intervention theory into building up the time series model.After that,the end of life cars is forecasted in this paper.The constructed model is revised through evaluating error between simulation and true values.The modified model is verified throughhistorical data and could be used to predict cars' production,sales and import or export in the near future.(2)In order to highlight importance of the rule of energy saving and environment protecting in car recycle programs' selection,an analytic network process(ANP)model about metal part of abandoned vehicles' recycle program in the fourth chapter is introduced.Through analysis of trend about end of life vehicles' recycle standard,it is pointed out that the energy saves and environment protecting would be more important rule in the further.Based on the characteristics of vehicles recycle,the rule should include energy consumption,environment protecting,cost and risk.After evaluating variety of vehicles recycle programs through ANP model,it shows that when abandoned vehicles' metal parts could be recycled with many kinds of programs at the same time,the re-manufacture program is the best one.(3)The ecological resource restricts development of car industry to a maximum extent.In order to solve question,we introduce the ecological footprint theory into field of abandoned vehicles recycle,to evaluate the effects of different programs on cars' metal recycle.Using a domestic car as a sample,we have computed car's metal re-growth and ecological resource saving with different programs.The results show that the part metal unit re-manufacture program is better choice to regenerate metal and save environment resource.(4)The car' saling might be hysteretic in the market.In order to solve question,we constructed a model with metabolism process to calculate cars inventory,and predict the amount of abandoned cars by combining with weibull function.The cars' producing –using-abandoning process is analyzed,and a model to forecast end of life cars' distribution and amount is constructed.And the amount of abandoned cars,potential of cars' metal re-growth and ecological resource are predicted.