Research About Elasticity Of Factor Substitution Of China's Manufacturing Industry Based On The Micro Data

In the process of enterprise production and operation,the purchase of advanced machinery and equipment and the introduction or development of intangible assets and other capital investment have changed the employment structure of the labor market and affected the change in the proportion of labor remuneration.For example,the improvement of enterprise technology will result in relatively high wages for skilled workers,and improve the complementarity of capital and skill labor,while non-skilled workers are more likely to be replaced by the capital of advanced equipment.It is the cause of "skilled worker shortage" and "shortage of migrant workers" in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region.Whether the technological progress that is materialized in advanced equipment can be integrated into the production process through capital,improve production efficiency,and whether skilled labor can adapt to the new technological environment"like a duck to water".It is necessary to estimate the capital,non-skill labor and skill labor relations of the current manufacturing industry,explore its characteristics and analyze its effects to guide the production and operation of enterprises and supply-side reform.In 2011,the United States launched the advanced manufacturing partnership program.In 2013,Germany proposed the "industry 4.0" strategy.In 2015,China promoted "made in China 2025" strategy and so on.The common feature is that it advocates manufacturing automation,digitization and intellectualization,and advocates technological innovation and human capital input.In 2015,Central committee of the CPC put forward supply-side structure reforms,aimed at optimizing the elements resources distribution,improving the quality of economic and structural change,mainly from the supply elements such as capital,labor and technology innovation to reform.These policies attract experts and scholars to discuss the relations of technology,skill labor and capital.Germany "4.0" mainly based on skills as the core,to upgrade the way of promoting lean production,aim to increase the product knowledge and intelligence,workers will be out of the basic production and manufacturing,the main research and development design and update and maintenance,emphasis on machinery,equipment and technology is the complementary relationship between investment and labor skills.The manufacturing strategy advocated by the United States emphasizes the substitution of capital and labor.What is the relationship between the capital,un-skill labor and skill labor of current manufacturing industry of China?What kind of automation path and the direction of reform for manufacturing?This is the topic of this article.Industrial structure adjustment,the elements share high and low income distribution,flow direction and technology progress bias also are the hot issues in the theory and practice,that is closely related to the element size of the elasticity of substitution.Base on micro data of the listed company,it estimates all kinds of elements of the elasticity of substitution,explores its characteristics and analyzes its effect and the relationship between technological progress biases.The main innovations are as follows:First,from the financial report of enterprises,we can obtain the micro data that can be used for statistical analysis,explore the relevant laws of elasticity.Second,based on the micro related data,the labor is divided into non-skill labor and skill labor according to the nature and position of employees.It divides production personnel,sales personnel and crew into non-skill labor;divides R&D personnel,technical workers and managers into skill labor.Three,based on micro data,estimates the elasticity of substitution of capital,non-skill labor and skill labor,and systematic analyzes the characteristics of the elasticity of substitution,tests capital skills complement hypothesis and its characteristics of three guess.Four,considering elasticity of substitution and the way of technological progress,systemically analyses the technical progress towards relationship between the three elements.Choosing the appropriate empirical analysis method,analyses the effect of factor substitution elasticity on operation growth,factor income share and skill premium.The main contents of the study are summarized as follows:Chapter ?,based on the research background of practical problems,It expounds the theoretical significance and practice value of the research.It explains the main content,thought route and analysis method,the key points and difficulties of the analysis,and the innovation.Then reviews the relevant literature on the elasticity of substitution.Chapter ?,defines and analysis of the concept and meaning about direct elasticity of substitution(DES),partial elasticity of substitution(AES),Morishima elasticity of substitution(MES)and shadow elasticity of substitution(SES),and the original elasticity of substitution.The calculation formula of DES is derived based on the transcendental logarithm production function.The calculation formulas of AES,MES,SES and original substitution elastic families are derived based on the transcendental logarithm cost function.Chapter ?,based on the micro data,estimates various types of elasticity of substitution.It chooses 921 typical manufacturing listed companies as sample for analysis,from the perspective of accounting for 2009 to 2015,about seven years related to the factors such as input and output data of each samples.According to the different nature of work and jobs,divides labor into un-skill labor and skill labor.It estimates DES of capital and labor,and of capital,un-skill labor and skill labor.Estimates AES,MES and SES of the three elements based on trans-log cost function.It comes to a conclusion as follows:Capital and unskilled labor are substitutes in labor-intensive industries,are complementary.In capital-intensive industry;Capital and skill labor are complementary in manufacturing industry.Un-skill labor and skill labor are complementary in labor-intensive industries,are substitutes in capital-intensive industries.Chapter ? ,It analyzes the characteristics of various alternative elasticity using DES,AES and SES.Based on the independent sample mean method to test and obtain the remarkable heterogeneity of the variety of alternate elasticity of the different industry classification.Based on the matching sample mean t test,it's a direct test of the capital-skill complementary hypothesis,that is,the complementarily between capital and skill labor is stronger than the complementarily between capital and un-skill labor.It tests the ACMS hypothesis about the time-changing characteristics of an alternate elasticity;and tests the Solo hypothesis on the substitution of the elastic aggregate.The larger standard deviation of the industry,the smaller the substitution,that contraries to Hicks's conjecture.R&D and technological innovation promote alternative flexibility,which is consistent to Hicks's conjecture.Chapter ?,it analyzes the relationship between alternative elasticity and technological progress.It constructs an alternative elastic estimation and technology progressive bias model in three ways of considering technological progress.It analyzes the results based on the likelihood correlation regression(SUR)model.The relationship and order of the three elements are determined from the enterprise level,the overall level of manufacturing industry and the industry level.Come to the conclusion:The capital-intensive industry presents technological progress favoring labor,and there is a tendency of unskilled labor technology migration;the labor-intensive enterprises are moving towards capital bias.That is,there is a trend of"regression" in technology.Chapter ?,it explores the substitution elasticity effect of manufacturing industry.From the microcosmic perspective,whether the De La Grandville hypothesis is established,whether the growth effect and efficiency effect of the replacement elasticity of the inspection factor is significant.Conclusion:The increase of three kinds of substitution elasticity increases the business growth,and the growth effect is basically obvious.But all kinds of elasticity of substitution do not promote enterprise performance efficiency significantly increased.Based on error correction model(ECM),the elasticity of substitution effect is decomposed into direct substitution effect and the technological innovation induced effect,they are significant;and then we analyze the substitution of elastic distribution,and each of the substitution of elasticity has basically increased the share of capital gains.Analyzes the differences between the distributional effects of labor(skill premium),the greater the elasticity of substitution,the more obvious effect the skill premium.In the end,the conclusion is concluded,and based on the conclusion;the suggestion is made from a different point of view.