The Dynamic Chain Effect Of Submarine Pipeline Engineering Risks

In the crucial stage of China's economic transformation,the security of energy development and utilization is an important factor to ensure economic and social stability.China has begun to focus on the development of offshore oil and gas development projects due to the excessive exploitation of gas resources in land.As the most secure and convenient means of transportation,the submarine pipeline can provide a lot of oil and gas.The submarine pipeline project belongs to the large-scale infrastructure project,which is the open complex system itself with high degree of vulnerability and easy to be affected by the complex Marine environment.In the complex Marine environment,the experience of managing the project is not enough,and the cognitive level and control ability of complex environmental risks need to be improved.Engineering project risk research mainly focuses on the identification and evaluation of static risk,and the research on dynamic change of risk is still in the exploration stage.The objective conditions and environmental conditions of the submarine pipeline project are complex,and the project risk factors are numerous and in dynamic change.Therefore,the dynamic chain effect of the project risk should be paid attention to in the risk management of the submarine pipeline project.This study explores and clarifies the vulnerability of underwater pipeline engineering object system and the mechanism of engineering risk transmission.The vulnerability of submarine pipeline engineering system is evaluated.The formation and development of submarine pipeline engineering risks are studied.Thirdly,the diffusion and conduction process of submarine pipeline engineering risk is analyzed.It simulates the chain effect of pipeline engineering risk conduction.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First,it constructs 18 project system vulnerability index evaluation system of four dimensions.The offshore pipeline system in Bohai sea is selected as the evaluation object,the vulnerability of pipeline engineering system in Bohai sea is at the level of ? grade to IV grade by improved fuzzy evaluation.Secondly,the risk diffusion and risk transmission methods are summarized and discovered that,the risk diffusion of submarine pipeline project is:linear diffusion,circular diffusion,radiation diffusion,and cross diffusion.Third,understanding the cause-and-effect process of the critical risk from the perspective of the interaction of risk factors.It is found that the risk factors affecting the performance of pipeline engineering in Bohai sea are mainly natural environment,contractor and social environment.The key risk conduction path of 9 Bohai submarine pipeline project is proposed.Fourthly,dynamic Bayesian network method is used to analyze the domino effect of pipeline engineering risk events.The domino effect of complex random risk events is analyzed from two dimensions of time and space.Taking the Bohai pipeline project as an example,this paper examines the applicability of dynamic Bayesian network method to the domino effect of spatial and temporal random risk events.Enhancing the risk dynamic chain effect cognition can effectively block the risk conduction path.This study provides theoretical and practical support for submarine pipeline engineering planning,design,construction and management in Marine environment.