Rumor Propagation Dynamics Based On Individual Heterogeneity

The spreading of rumors,especially those concerning negative issues,has constantly been a source of adverse impacts on people's life,causing panics that even lead to political or social unsteadiness.Therefore,it is of both theoretical and realistic significance to study the basic spreading patterns of rumors and to analyze the factors and mechanisms of them,so as to provide theoretical support to help their restraining.With rumor propagation as the researching subject and fully considering the characteristics of rumor spreading,three models of rumor spreading models have been proposed in this thesis,based on different standpoints of observation,studying the dynamic of system,analyzing the propagation regulations.In Chapter 2,the individuals who hear rumor but do not transmit it are named the immunizers who transmit rumor.The influence of the proportion of immunizers on the transmission of rumor is considered.We also considered the way in which the speed of rumor propagation changes,and modeled a rumor transmission differential equation.The results show that the increase of the proportion of those who are reluctant to spread rumors can not only reduce the number of rumors spreaders,but also reduce the rate of rumors spread when other factors are not considered.In our study,the proportion of those reluctant to spread rumors is about thirty percent,which is a critical point affecting rumor spreading.The bigger the proportion of those disinclined to spread rumors exceeds the threshold,the better the effect of rumor spreading reduction and suppression is.In Chapter 3,a rumor transmission differential equation model is established which considered different attitudes of individuals towards rumor spreading:propagating,not propagating,neutral attitude(or hesitation).The results show that people who like to spread rumors can stimulate and promote the spread of rumors;people who hate rumors can reduce and weaken the spread of rumors and help to eventually eliminate the spread of rumors;people who hesitate to spread rumors or are neutral are actually in favor of the spread of rumors.In other words,individuals who maintain a neutral attitude have a negative impact on controlling and reducing the spread of rumors.In Chapter 4,the external factors such as the carrier and media of rumor spreading was named as the social environment factors of rumor transmission,and a novel rumor spreading differential equation model is proposed,which takes into consideration of the proportion of individuals who know rumor but do not transmit it and the social environment.One of the effective measures to control and reduce the spread of rumors is to increase the proportion of immunized individuals,to enhance individual immunity to rumor spreading,and to reduce the impact of social environment on the susceptible population.Moreover,the increasing proportion of immunized individuals can reduce the role of social environment in rumor spreading.The thesis is concluded in Chapter 5.