Research On Risk Analysis And Decision Models Of The Third-party Payment Rough Networks Specialty: Information Management And Information System

With the development of Internet economy,third-party payment platform economy has become one of the hot Internet finance research.Throughout the world's third-party payment companies,really have a good profit margin not many companies,most companies are facing the risk of survival.At present research on third-party payment risk issue,the risk is defined in the operational risk of platform economic,including legal risk,market risk,financial risk,credit risk and network technology risk;Successful companies of third-party payment generally adopt "strictly control" approach to manage risk,to do so may lead to the businessmen' network fraud,managers also increase operating costs;Unsuccessful companies still in a exploration state of risk management,soldiers to the breakwater to soil cover.As for the study of business risk,no one comes to this area.Using rough sets and complex networks theory,the paper abstracts the third-party payment networks as rough complex networks,integrates multi-disciplinary theoretical knowledge,to study the risk analysis of third-party payment rough complex networks.The paper research works and results are as follows:First,the paper defines concepts of rough complex networks,lower approximation networks and upper approximation networks of rough complex networks,points out the positive region,the negative region and boundaries region of rough complex networks.Gives ideas of rough weighted degree and weighted degree distribution of rough complex networks,proves the conclusion that the weighted degrees of lower approximation networks and upper approximation networks are subject to the same distribution.Gives the concepts of average distance range,rough clustering coefficient and rough betweenness of rough complex networks,indicating that the actual meaning of these concepts: the average distance range represents rough network boundary region's average distance,rough clustering coefficient represents the size of aggregation degree,rough betweenness reflect importance of the node.Second,the paper builds third-party payment rough complex networks,gives construction algorithm,and draws a rough third-party payment network.Study on the statistical characteristics of the rough complex networks,prove the conclusions that their roughness weighted degrees obey power law distribution,and obtain third-party payment rough networks having scale-free networks' characteristics;calculate its average distance range and rough clustering coefficient.And the paper obtain the networks' average distance range is too large,rough clustering coefficient is smaller,the networks do not have the characteristics of small-world networks,the networks' structure is relatively loose.Study on the third-party payment rough networks' topological properties;Point out its priority connectivity features and growth,robustness and fragility etc.Third,the paper complets third-party payment rough networks overview of risk analysis,the risk of third-party payment rough networks are divided into operational risks and business risks;Summarizes the deficiencies of the prior about risk assessment methods,selects based on game theory risk assessment evaluating methods for third-party payment rough networks' business risk.As the theoretical basis of risk assessment and risk management,the paper gives the concept of rough game theory,gives equilibrium's existence theorem and infinite strategy hybrid strategy algorithm;Gives steps of the algorithm and the basic idea of the rough game equilibrium,which rough game theory can change into classical game.And illustrate by examples rough game theory algorithm is effectiveness and feasibility.Fourth,the paper completes third party payment rough networks activists,buyers,sellers and managers' game analysis,gives the game about the buyer and the seller,the seller and the seller,the buyer and the seller and manager,explains some common economic phenomena and economic behavior in the third-party payment rough networks,obtains third-party payment rough networks benefit risk assessment system,establishes benefit-risk assessment model;Establishes third-party payment rough networks customer mining risk's two layers game models,to achieve customer mining risk assessment.Solving the models results show that the impact of networks trust in benefit-risk is larger than customer access;By maximum weight degree nodes,managers tap the potential customers can realize minimize risk,customer purchase amount and flow of customer login equivalent impact to mining risk,less than assessment of customer to commodities.Fifth,the paper builds the effectiveness risk management framework and method of customer mining risk management.Constructs knowledge dissemination model based on rough network's trust degree,businesses benefit maximization rough statistical model and customer choice goods attribute reduction method based on time series analysis,gives the quantitative incentive measures as managers' decision-making of benefits risk management.Establishes knowledge found model of customer mining risk base on time series analysis,points out that managers look the maximum weighting degree nodes as the core node,look customers buy amount as decision variables to dig out potential customers in core nodes.Sixth,the paper defines the concept and nature of the network base,gives two decision-making methods of the nodes importance of third-party payment rough networks and decision-making method of rough complex network based on network base.Decisions method based on network-based was used in the third-party payment rough networks operational risk decisions,which for operators risk decision provides quantitative operational recommendations.At present,third-party payment platform economic the risk problems,although there are some studies,but these studies are mostly strategic advice about operational risk management,but also ignore the complexity and uncertainty operation networks of the economic platform.The paper abstracts third-party payment platform operator networks as complex networks,defines the rough complex networks and its statistical characteristics;Constructs third-party payment rough networks,studys the networks' topological properties.According to networks structure of third-party payment rough networks,achieves risk identification,risk assessment and risk management for third-party payment platform economic.Risk analysis system of the paper adapted to the characteristics that platform economic attached to Internet‘s development and survival,not only from theoretically explain some regularity and economic phenomena of third-party payment platform,but also from the business and operational two aspects achieve risk assessment and risk management of the third party payment platform economic.Therefore,this paper improves the current research status existing deficiencies;Provide new ideas and methods for risk analysis and decision-making of third-party payment rough network.So the paper has important practical applications.