| Over 30 years has passed since Reform and Opening up in 1978,China's economic system has gradually changed from the planned economy to the socialist market economy,which the public ownership economy is the main body,and a variety of economic components are coexisted.Just because of the Reform and Opening,the total economy,comprehensive national strength,and people's living standards have achieved a dramatic change in China.However,due to that the total social funds aren't controlled properly with the deepening of economic reform,and the problems of the economic development which is unbalanced,uncoordinated and unsustainable have become increasingly prominent,and because of these problems,many governments and scholars around the world have to pay attention to the flow of funds in the whole society.Flow of Funds Accounts is an important part of the system of national accounts;through it we can observe the relationship of the real economy and financial economy with a good macroeconomic perspective.Flow of Funds Accounts is a powerful tool to reflect the all social funds which distribute and move in the society.In the foreign countries,there are not only such as the professor of Copeland and Stone had done the study on compiling the Flow of Funds Accounts,but also there are many international organizations and countries had done this job,such as the United Nations,World Bank,European Central Bank,Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research,International Labor Organization and the International Food Policy Research Institute,and such as the United States,Canada,Japan,Netherlands and the United Kingdom and so on.However,although the central government in our country had organized some functional departments to go on compiling the China's Flow of Funds Accounts in 1985,National Bureau of Statistics compiled a summary of China 's Flow of Funds Accounts in 1986,and proposed a preliminary plan for compiling the China 's Flow of Funds Accounts in 1987,Flow of Funds Accounts was formally incorporated in the China 's system of national accounts in 1992,but because of the study on compiling of Flow of Funds Accounts in China for which started relatively to be late,so there are still many defects in the compilation of the Flow of Funds Accounts in China,also there are still some deficiencies in the application of research for China's Flow of Funds Accounts.From the official data released in China,we can only find the annual data of China's Flow of Funds Accounts in 1992-2014,but the quarterly data so far have not been released,compared with the United States,Canada,Britain,Italy,Japan,South Korea,Indonesia and the other major countries in the world,the efficiency of data in China's Flow of Funds Accounts is still far behind.Compared with the annual data of the Flow of Funds Accounts,the quarterly data are more accurate to measure the economic activities of the season,and more sensitive to capture the short-term fluctuations in the economy.At the same time,it can not only provide a reliable platform for macroeconomic managers to find the turning point in the economy,but also can provide a barometer that can timely grasp the changes in economic development for social economy practitioners in each field.In conclusion,because the construction of statistical system is not perfect,many basic statistics data are difficult to collect,this paper attempts to construct a reasonable mathematical statistical model by grasping the indexes with both representative and timeliness,assisting in compiling the quarterly physical China's Flow of Funds matrix,and then through it we can observe the funds which distribute and move in the whole society in our country,this can offer a reference for making the polices of China's macro-control and income distribution.There are two purposes of this study,one is to compile the Matrix of China's quarterly physical Flow of Funds,the other is to analyze the distribution of China's national income by using the matrix's data,and compare it with the developed countries,such as the United States,Canada and Japan,and then find out the common law of distribution of national income.On the basis of the theoretical research and Empirical Analysis on the Flow of Funds which had done by the institutions and scholars in domestic and foreign,the main research methods in this paper are literature analysis,comparative analysis,econometric model and matrix analysis,the data adopted in this study mainly come from the China's Statistical Yearbook,China's Financial Yearbook,China's Insurance Yearbook,China's Financial Yearbook,China's Tax Quarterly Report,China's International Balance of Payment,Wind database,CEInet Statistics Database,National Data,Fred Database,and the People's Bank of Chinese website,China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange website,China Securities Regulatory Commission website,Chinese CBRC website,Fed's website,Canadian National Bureau of Statistics website,Japan Cabinet Office website and Bank of Japan website.At the same time,it also draws on some of the data and results which have engaged in related research.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:The main contents of the study are as follows:First,this paper mainly introduces the historical background of the analysis method of the Flow of Funds Accounts,expounds its basic principle,summarize its statistical framework,refer to the suggestion of compiling the Flow of Funds Accounts that the UN provide in the SNA,sums up the experience which United States and Japan compiled the Flow of Funds Accounts,and then raises some questions about China's Flow of Funds Accounts,such as that the classification of items is too rough,the items of transaction have not been completed and the timeliness of statistical data is still poor and so on.Therefore,solving these problems would be the directions of improving and perfecting the China's Flow of Funds Accounts in the future.Second,in view of the fact that the China's physical Flow of Funds Accounts has not yet released its quarterly data,the basic statistical data are difficult to collect,and the timeliness of statistical data is too poor,so this paper will focus on the practical needs of the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds,and introduce the basic idea and the classification of temporal disaggregation model,analyze on the advantages and disadvantages of the Non-Indicators and Based Method Indicators Algorithms,compare the models of the Chow-Lin(AR1),DRFD,DRSD,DAFD and DASD,and then pick out the best one for assisting in compiling the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014.Third,on the basis of the previous studies on the China's Matrix of the Flow of Funds,this paper will be to transfer the China's Physical Flow of Funds Accounts released by the official into the Matrix of China's Physical Flow of Funds,to simplify its structure,to determine the transaction items which required for compiling the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds,and to use the Chow-Lin(AR1)model to disaggregate the annual time series data into the quarterly time series data,and then base on these series data to compile the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014.Fourth,this paper analyzes the characteristics and trends of the distribution pattern of China's national income in quarter,which bases on the data in Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014,compare it with the United States,Canada and Japan,in order to show the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014 are reliable,also find out the common law of the distribution of national income.The main conclusions of the research are as follows:First,the paper reviews the literatures about the disaggregation models in domestic and foreign,and finds out the results obtained by the disaggregation model of Chow-Lin(AR1)are the best,which are based on comparing the empirical analysis of the Chow-Lin(AR1),DRFD,DRSD,DAFD and DASD,so this paper uses the model of the Chow-Lin(AR1)as assisting in compiling the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014.The second,after the empirical analysis,it find that the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014 can timely and accurately measure the basic characteristics of China's economic activities,such as the seasonal variation of the employee compensation expense,net taxes on production,property expenditures,transfer payments,and so on,these are all consistent with the seasonal changes of China's economic activities,and seasonally adjusted data showing the characteristics of fluctuations are also consistent with the time nodes when the macro-control measures and regulatory documents issued by the Chinese government,for example,the central economic work conference changed the prudent fiscal policy to the proactive fiscal policy,and changed the tight monetary policy to the easy monetary policy in the end of 2007,the government implemented four trillion fiscal stimulus plan in 2009,fiscal policies tended to improve the economic structure and the people's living standards in 2010,and the government emphasized on the sound and flexible monetary policies in 2011,and so forth.On these time nodes,these macro-control behaviors are all embodied in the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds in 2006-2014,these results showed that the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds played a good role in tracking on the macroeconomic policies.The third,the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds are reliable.Through analysis of the distribution pattern of national income in the China,United States,Japan and Canada in 2006-2014,we find that the characteristics of data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds are similar to those which in the United States,Japan and Canada,such as seizing the quarterly features of economic activity,tracking and capturing the short-term fluctuation signal which caused by the Macro-control and economic events,and logical relationship of pattern of national income.Therefore,in view of the international practice,the data in the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds are reliable.The fourth,after analyzing the distribution pattern of national income in China,United States,Japan and Canada in 2006-2014,it found that the proportion of the China's primary distribution of the national income seasonally fluctuated between the 9.5%-16.5% in the corporate sector,between the 16.0%-19.9% in the government sector,and between the 61.9%-71.0% in the household sector;The proportion of the United States primary distribution of the national income seasonally fluctuated between the 3.2%-10.4% in the corporate sector,between the 3.7%-5.9% in the government sector,and between the 85.1%-91.7% in the household sector;The proportion of the Japan's primary distribution of the national income seasonally fluctuated between the 8.1%-15.4% in the corporate sector,between 8.3%-10.2% in the government sector,and between the 75.1%-82.7% in household sector;The proportion of the Canada's primary distribution of the national income seasonally fluctuated between the 4.1%-12.8% in the corporate sector,between the11.2%-12.8% in the government sector,and between the 75.1%-80.3% in the household sector.These fluctuations of proportion are all relatively large.The fifth,it finds that the trend of China's distribution pattern of national income had been largely stable by analysis of the distribution pattern of national income in our country in 2006-2014.The proportion of average seasons in a year for the primary distribution of the national income fluctuated between the 12.5%-15.3% in corporate sector,between the 17.4%-18.5% the in government sector,between the 63.6%-66.9% in the household sector,and between the 2.2%-3.5% in the foreign sector.In aspect of the proportion of the average season in every year for the disposable income,it fluctuated between 19.8%-24.9% and showed a downward trend in the corporate sector in 2006-2014,and it fluctuated between 58.0%-60.7% and showed an upward trend in the household sector in 2006-2014.The fifth,it finds that the primary distribution of national income is more inclined to the household sector in the United States by comparing China with the United States,Japan and Canada.The proportion of the primary distribution of the national income in household sector which in the United States,Japan and Canada is higher respectively about 22 percentage,13 percentage and 13 percentage than that its in China.In the process of the redistribution,the proportion of the redistribution of the national income is higher about 2.7-10.9 percentage in the United States,about 2.7-10.9 percentage in Japan,and about 9.7-15.5 percentage in Canada than that in the process of the initial distribution,but only about-1.7-2.9 percentage in china.The innovation points of the study are as follows:First,Flow of Funds Accounts is an important part of the system of national accounts;through it we can observe the relationship of the real economy and financial economy with a good macroeconomic perspective.However,from the official data released in China,we can only find out the annual data in China's Flow of Funds Accounts in 1992-2014,the quarterly data so far have not been released yet.The paper is the first to compile the Matrix of China's quarterly physical Flow of Funds,and use its data to analyze the characteristics and trends of the distribution pattern of China's national income in quarter in our country.The second,in the view of the current situation,which is very difficult to collect the basic data for compiling the Matrix of China's quarterly physical Flow of Funds,so this paper chooses the temporal disaggregation model of the Chow-Lin(AR1)for assisting in compiling the matrix,which it undoubtedly pointed out a direction for further study on compiling China's Flow of Funds in the future.The third,after combing the domestic literatures on the application of the China's Flow of Funds Accounts,it find that the application of the China's Flow of Funds Accounts in our country are all descriptive analysis and description,which based on the anural data in the Flow of Funds Accounts.This paper is the first one to analyze the distribution pattern of national income in our country in 2006-2014,which based on the Matrix of China's Quarterly Physical Flow of Funds,also compare it with the United States,Japan and Canada,the contents of the study are more comprehensive and systematic,and the timeliness is much too. |
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