| From the history,China has been a large agricultural country and agriculture is the base of the society.The three key problems about rural development,which always refer to “three rural problems” are how to make famers having more disposable income,how to make agriculture becoming more productive,how to make rural areas tracking into a highly-speed way of developing and growth.Three rural problems are of great significance to the overall completion on well-off society construction.Because of the difference of regional factor endowment and the different emphasis of national development strategy,the economic development level of different regions varies in a much degree.Human capital and physical capital are two important factors to promote economic development,and the role of human capital is more critical based on theoretical and empirical studies.The low level of human capital in rural areas has seriously restricted the development of rural economy.As a consequence,the low level of rural economy will restrict the investment level of human capital.Human capital,which is calculated by Jorgrnson-Fraumeni lifetime income-based approach,contains four dimensions,i.e.,urban and rural,six level of education,male and female,age.It is clear to explore the factors that affect human capital accumulation by applying Divisia decomposition method.Furthure more,this paper will explore the difference of human capital on individual level.Since human capital is calculated in a recursive method,each value of human capital is an expected probability value.On macro level,with different enrollment rates,there will be different human capital values.On micro level,with different learning habits and environment,there will also be different human capital values.Each individual will enter labor market with different human capital stocks.Such differences will lead to different rewards in labor market,as well as different career decisions.Human capial has long been considered as the engine of innovation for whole society.Especially in now knowledge economy,entrpreneurship has been the focus of economists and policy makers.What characteristics those successful entreprenurs have is of great interest for economists.Non-cognitive skills have been regarded as the most important part of human capital and have been verified to have larger effect on labor market.This paper is trying to find out how self-cofidence,as a reprensentative character of non-cognitive skills,will affect individual’s decision on career path.The meanings of this paper are as follows.First,increasing investment in human capital in rural areas is an inevitable requirement of building a new socialist countryside.Only by increasing investment in human capital in rural areas and making the rich rural human resources into high-quality human capital,can better promote the development of agriculture,and then build a new socialist countryside.Second,raising the level of the human capital of farmers is an important way to narrow the differences between urban and rural areas.Only by improving their level of human capital and their quality,can help farmers to improve production efficiency and enhance their self-development ability in science and technology.At the same time,by improving technology innovation and cultivating productive ideas,we can achieve coordinated regional development and narrow the differences between urban and rural economic development.Third,increasing human capital reserve of farmers is a key factor to increase farmers’ income.By increasing the human capital reserves of farmers,can not only improve their cognitive ability,but also to enhance their non-cognitive ability,such as the use of new technology and the ability of agricultural management ideas and methods,which can broaden their sources of income and then to increase their income.Fourth,by exploring the regional differences of human capital,we can well understand the mechnism of human capital formation.From the Divisia decomposition on macro level and enrollment rates forecasting on the individual level,this paper is trying to explore the reason that leads to different stocks of human capital accumulation.On the micro level,the mechanism of human capital formation can be more deeply understood.On the macro level,we can clearly understand the differences in the formation of regional human capital,so as to provide some policy implications.This paper focuses on the dynamic evolution and regional development of rural human capital,makes comparison on the differences between human capital in urban and rural areas and the differences of regional human capital.It provides rural human capital estimates on national and provincial level for human capital,labor force human capial as well as per capita values,and describes the dynamics and trends from 1985 to 2014.This paper applies Divisia decomposition method to to find out the reasons that cause the difference of human capital.Then this paper moves forward further to study individual human capital forecasting.First,on the macro level,this paper takes into account the factors of urban and rural migrant population,to get the accurate numbers of enrollment rates on provincial level.Second,on the micro level,this paper predicts individual enrollment rates from individual factors,family factors and environmental factors,to explore what causes individual differences in human capital.In order to find the influence of the increase of enrollment rates on promoting the accumulation of human capital,this paper estimates the enrollment rates of the students from primary school to senior high school.Finally,from the perspective of an entrepreneur,this paper uses empirical method to explore the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship.This paper is composed of seven chapters.Chapter 1 is introduction part.Chapter 2 reviewes the literature on human capital theory and estimation methods.The rest of this paper is briefly introduced as follows:Chapter 3 applies modified Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime incomed-based approach to estimate human capital in rural China,describes the dynamics and distribution of human capital in China,makes comparison of human capital differences from the perspective of education and human capital itself.From the perspective of education,the difference of average years of education in urban and rural areas is very large.The proportion of high school above for labor force in rural areas has been increased from 7.06% to 14.23%,in urban areas it has been increased from 25.16% to 47.99%;the average years of education for labor force in rural areas is 5.44 in 1985 and 8.57 in 2014,while in urban areas is 7.96 in 1985 and 10.89 in 2014.From the perspective of human capital,the average growth rate of human capital in rural is 3.20%,far behind the average growth rate in urban which is 9.84%.The same trend is for labor force human capital,the average growth rate in urban and rural is 9.26% and 4.06% separately.For the dynamics of total human capital and per capita human capital,the total human capital is 33.06 trillion RMB in 1985,increased by 1.402 to 79.40 trillion RMB,and with the average growth rate is 3.20%.The total labor force human capital is 13.83 trillion RMB in 1985,increased by 2.05 to 42.13 trillion RMB,and with the average growth rate is 4.06%.The total human capital increased fastest in middle region with the average growth rate is 3.79%,while the lowest growth rate is 2.85% in west region.The per capita human capital is 43.1 thousand RMB in 1985,increased by 2.74 to 161 thousand RMB,and with the average growth rate is 4.80%.The per capita labor force human capital is 31.5 thousand RMB in 1985,increased by 2.80 to 119.9 thousand RMB in 2014,and with the average growth rate is 4.88%.The per capita human capital is largest in east region,but the highest average growth rate in middle region.Chapter 4 is the application of Divisia decomposition method to the analysis on the difference of regional human capital.From the Divisia quantity index and quality index,both the quantity index and quality index in east region is positive in urban while negative in rural areas;in rural areas,only the population growth rate is positive(0.237%).The trend is similar in middle region and west region.The Divisia quantity index and quality index for human capital is positive in urban areas and negative in rural areas,the population growth rate is positive from 1985 to 1996,while negative from 1997 to 2014(-0.005% and-2.325% in urban and rual of middle areas,-0.005% and-2.075% in urban and rual of west areas).Divisia quality index for labor force human capital is negative in urban areas from 1985 to 1996,but positive in rural for west region and negative for middle region(-0.660% and-0.383% in urban and rual of middle areas,-0.002% and 0.015% in urban and rual of west areas).From 1997-2014,the Divisia quantity index and quality index for human capital is positive in urban areas and negative in rural areas.For northeast region,Divisia quality index for urban human capital and labor force human capital are negative,Divisia quantity index for urban human capital and labor force human capital are positive,the population growth rate is also positive.Divisia quantity index and quality index along with population growth rate for human capital are negative,but for labor force human capital,Divisia quantity index and population growth is positive from 1985 to 1996(0.658% and 1.353% respectively),negative from 1997 to 2014(-1.792% and 0.590% respectively).From the first-order Divisia index decomposition,education contributes largest to rural per capita labor force human capital.Aging population hinders the accumulation of human capital,and this negative effect outweighs the positive effect by education.Northeast region suffers population aging seriously,with the average growth rate is-1.194%,but a little better for the average labor force human capital.The contribution of gender to human capital and labor force human capital is very small.The effect of urbanization is largest for average human capital,while education contributes most for average labor force human capital.Such case shows that urbanization push the young generation to urban areas,while education contributes their human capital accumulation.Urbanization makes positive effect for rural human capital before 1997,but negative effect after that.The joint effect of urbanization and education contributes the most to human capital and labor force human capital accumulation in east and west region.The effect which jointly determined by urbanization and aging is positive for urban areas for east and northeast region,and also positive for middle and west region before 1997,but negative after 1997.Chapter 5 explores the human estimation further to micro level to forecast individual human capital.Making use of modified Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetimeincome based approach to estimate the human capital for elementary and junior student,trying to find the determinants of enrolling onto higher education level,estimating the real enrollment rate.On macro level,this paper takes Hunan province as the representative of developed province and calculates the real enrollment rate and the human capital by location.If the enrollment rate is increased by 1%,the average human capital for primary six students will increase by 0.52% and 0.28% for junior three students.On micro level,using the tracked sample from 2010 to 2012 in CFPS dataset,using Probit model to get the prediction of enrollment rate for the representative province Gansu,the results show that if the is increased by 1%,the average human capital for primary six students in rural areas will increase by 0.84%,and 0.70% for junior three students.Chapter 6 explores how will human capital affect the choice between paid and being an entrepreneur.Since the previous chapters have the big picture of difference of human capital in macro and micro level,this chapter focus on how such difference will be showed on labor market.The results show that confidence,as the main characteristic of non-cognitive skills,have positive effect on being self-employee.Such effect is larger in less active areas with entrepreneur activities,meaning the strong confidence is of great significance to being an entrepreneur in such arear,and this effect is larger in rural areas.The years of schooling is negative for being self-employee,and the effect of mother’s education is larger,especially in urban areas.Male has larger possibility to being and entrepreneur than female,especially in active areas with more entrepreneur activities.The seventh chapter summarizes the whole paper and makes some relevant policy recommendations.This paper brings forth the following innovations:First,this paper uses the Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income-based approach,to get the human capital stock in rural China,and describes the trend and dynamics of regional human capital.By applying Divisia decomposition method,it explores what factors affect the growth of human capital,what factors lead to the change of human capital in urban and rural areas respectively.This paper also to find out,in different periods of economic development,how will the combined effects of urbanization,age,education level,gender affect human capital accumulation.Second,this paper predicts human capital on individual level based on JorgensonFraumeni lifetime income-based approach.This paper calculates and predicts enrollment rate on maro and individual level with migrant data and mirco database,first to predict enrollment rate,and then to predict human capital stock on individual level.Third,this paper explores the effect of human capital on being an entrepreneur.It is well known that non-cognitive skills have very important effect on labor market.This paper further explores how self-confidence will affect the decision to be paid or to be an entrepreneur.However,this paper faces the following shortcomings:First,for the individual human capital forecasting,the sample of individuals are now from primary school to the junior school.If can be access to senior school stundents enrolled to college or higher education level in the sample,it will make the prediction more systematical and comprehensive.Second,by data limitations,how self-confidence and other non-cognitive skills will jointly affect individual decision on self employment choice,needs to be further studied.Also,how to better distinguish the existence of entrepreneurship and active entrepreneurhip remains further explored in the future work. |
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