Potential Trade Relationship Of International Copper Resources Based On Link Prediction Method

The rising demand for copper resources which are uneven geographical distributed have promoted the development and growth of copper resources trade.The potential trade relationship of copper resources is of great significance to the development trend of future trade.Based on the analysis of the current situation of copper resources supply and demand,and the evolution process of the trade network,this paper introduces the local naive Bayesian algorithm into the link prediction model to predict the potential trade relationship of copper resources,and combines the related theories to analyze the forecast results from Aging characteristics and prospect.By integrating theories of resource geography,classical and new trade,a theoretical framework for global copper resource trade is established.Based on the complex network method,the model of the global copper resource trade network is constructed,whose evolution is analyzed from three aspects: the tightness of the trade network,the number of countries’ trade relations,and the influence of each country on the trade network.Based on the national and trade links in the global copper resource trading network,a link prediction model is constructed.By introducing the Bayes algorithm,the number of common trade partners and the influence of trade partners are used to predict the potential trade relations between two countries.Based on the trade network of copper resources during 2000-2014,and the prediction of potential trade relations year by year,300 pairs of copper ores and 450 of refined copper potential trade relations were obtained.Compared with the actual trade relationship of copper resources in the past 2001-2015 years,231 pairs of copper ore and 408 of refined copper potential trade relations were accurately predicted.In view of the potential trade relations,and the time limitation analysis,which is carried out from two angles of immediacy and sustainability,It is found that 42 pairs of copper ores and 104 of refined copper potential trade relations have strong aging characteristics,which is the standard of division.Based on the 2015 copper resource trade network,the potential trade relations in 2016 and beyond are able to be forecasted.Through the analysis of trade flow prospects,it is found that the potential trade relations of copper ores are mainly concentrated among Asian countries,and the potential trade relations of refined copper are mainly from Europe to Asia.Through the analysis of aging prospect,it is revealed that the potential trade relationship between the developed countries and the developing countries has strong timeliness characteristics.In terms of refined copper,the potential trade relations between Europe and Asian countries have stronger timeliness.In order to improve China’s initiative and discourse power in the future copper resource trade,and ensure the security of copper resources supply,three policy suggestions are put forward as follows:to establish a dynamic prediction mechanism for the global trade relations of copper resources;to Promote the establishment of trade relations with key potential trading partners;to pay close attention to potential competitors of copper resources and enhance the trade risk prevention capacity.