A Comparative Study On Government Debt In BRICS

Since the USA have had financial crisis from 2008,the global economic growth continued to fall into recession.In 2011,the European sovereign debt crisis broke out,many countries pushed to the edge of the debt crisis,the economic recovery more worried.Among the successive crises,many countries have generally adopted economic stimulus policies,but the increasing of fiscal deficits and the expansion of debt size have laid a greater risk of debt crisis for countries.This risk is not only occurred in the high social welfare countries,but also occurred in the relatively fast economic growth in emerging market countries.As a representative of emerging market countries,the "BRICS"government debt in 2015 totaled $7.94 trillion,accounting for 45%of GDP.Among them,the Brazilian government debt accounted for the highest proportion of GDP,which is up to 73.7%.Meanwhile the Indian government debt accounted 69.1%of GDP,and Chinese government debt accounted 43.6%of GDP,but this data in China was only 22.5%in 2011.How did the government debt of the BRICS develop to such a high level?What are the factors that affecting its size?What is the role of government debt for economic growth?What is the risk of government debt?Only by solving these problems,the "BRICS"countries can effectively implement fiscal policy and avoid debt risk.Therefore,this dissertation takes the "BRICS" countries as the sample,deeply studies the formation trajectory,the scale influencing factors,the economic growth effect and the debt risk formation mechanism of the government debt.In order to promote the public finance theoretical research,to improve government debt supervision and risk prevention for the emerging market countries,to provide scientific decision-making theory and recommendations for reference,This dissertation also makes a comparative analysis of the corresponding angle.The main contents of this dissertation include the following parts:First,the dissertation introduces the background,research significance,research framework,research methods,creation and shortcomings of this dissertation.At the same time,the dissertation also reviews the existing literature about government debt,which can provide the theoretical foundation for this study.Second,the dissertation studies the"BRIC" countries government debt development and comparative analysis.This dissertation analyzes the problems and problems of the development of government debt in the "BRIC" countries from the aspects of the evolution of government debt origin,the scale of debt and structure,and the management system.Thirdly,the dissertation analyzes the factors affecting the scale of government debt in the "BRICS" countries.This part studies the relationship between the debt level and the trend of economic environment through the comparative analysis of the scale and structure change of the financial expenditure of the "BRICS" countries government.Then this dissertation analyzes the changes of the fiscal revenue and expenditure and the deficit situation.Based on the analysis of the demand mechanism of the government debt of the "BRICS countries",the adjustment of the government function and the scope of the financial expenditure,this dissertation makes an empirical test using the "BRICS" data to analyze the dynamic changes of the government scale of the "BRICS" countries,which may influence "BRICS"countries Debt.Fourth,this dissertation comparatively analyzes the "BRICS" countries government debt economic growth effect.This part realizes the non-linear relationship between the government debt size and economic growth of the "BRICS' countries by constructing the panel data model,and validates the existence and dynamic of the government debt threshold of the "BRICS" countries.And it is found that inflation,interest rate change,exchange rate change and financial development situation will cause the fluctuation of government debt to the nonlinear effect of economic growth in the process of dynamic change of government debt threshold.Fifth,this dissertation comparatively analyzes"BRICS" countries government debt risk.This part evaluates the government debt risk of"BRICS" countries through the design of government debt risk assessment method.From the perspective of the general characteristics of debt risk,the relationship with financial risks and the impact on financial risk.Through this method,"BRICS,countries government debt risk differences were compared and analyzed.This dissertation analyzes the influencing factors of the government debt risk of the "BRICS" countries and compares the differences of the government debt risk factors.Sixth is conclusion and countermeasures.On the basis of summing up the conclusions of the whole dissertation,this dissertation puts forward the government for China from the aspects of reforming the financial system and improving the solvency,optimizing the government debt structure and issuing bonds,standardizing the use of debt and improving the efficiency of debt utilization,perfecting the debt risk supervision system.The creation of this dissertation with researching government debt of the "BRICS" is mainly reflected in the following aspects.The dissertation first time analyzes the influencing factors,the growth effect and the risk influence of the five countries in the government debt scale by using the comparative research method.The second creation is based on the generation overlap model,this dissertation studies the impact of the "BRICS"countries government debt size factors and the impact of the path,the mathematical reasoning analysis,which can enrich the government debt size decision mechanism of the theoretical system.Third,by verifying "BRICS" countries the existence of the threshold and dynamic government debt,this dissertation proves that the inflation,interest rate,exchange rate changes,such as financial development can cause "BRICS" countries on the impact of government debt on economic growth of nonlinear wave.Fourth,this article for the "BRICS" countries government debt risk assessment system was designed,and empirically the influence "BRICS" countries government debt risk of the key factors.These studies provides the data for the analysis and comparison for each country's government debt risk.Of course,this dissertation also has the following shortcomings:First,the "BRICS"countries part of the data is missing,the relevant empirical analysis process has been limited,and may have a certain impact on the relevant estimates.Second,there is also having space for improvement in the research methods,especially the non-linear effects of economic growth on government debt,Which could need more advanced measurement tools and research methods to further exploring its more complex internal impact mechanism.For these shortcomings,the author will continue to track,improve in future research.