Statistical Research Of Structured Asset Bubbles

Governments,Central Banks and economic scholars pay close attention to the economic growth,inflation,the relationship between the money supply quantity,this is one of the major macroeconomic problems,in the early economic theory,Friedman put forward modern quantity theory of money,this theory has not only revealed the relationship between the three,but also the new explanation to traditional monetary quantity equation and becomes a classic of economics.However,since the collapse of the bretton woods system,especially since the 1980 s,with the economic globalization and financial liberalization,asset securitization,the impact of the financial currency,bubble economy appears more frequent,more extensive,triggered a global financial crisis is more and more serious.Therefore,we must incorporate the bubble economy unification of the quantity theory of money,so,can not only improve macro economic related theory,but also can help us monetary policy,economic and stable operation.In this paper,through the systematic review of the literature of the bubble economy,combined with the historical events,found the most obvious characteristics of the bubble economy,this feature is the use of certain financial means,social funds concentrated to a certain type of asset market,which caused the Excessive expansion of asset prices,asset bubbles have a more prominent structural features.In order to introduce the bubble economy into the unified monetary quantity theory and show the structural characteristics,we can use the traditional money quantity equation to expand the money quantity equation,so that we can realize the structure of the bubble economy research,and with the help of physics The paper analyzes the driving factors,the generating mechanism and the statistical measure of the structural asset bubble from the aspects of theory and practice,and discusses the imbalance model of the financial flow.On the basis of the related statistical theory and method,this paper discusses the statistical monitoring system and the construction of the early warning system of the structural asset bubble from the angle of the modeling method.Based on the relevant actual data in China,this paper constructs the structural The statistical monitoring system and early warning model of asset bubble provide an effective reference tool for identifying the extent of China’s bubble economy and timely adopting corresponding countermeasures.The full text is divided into seven chapters,Chapter 1-introduction.From the overall layout of the main research background research ideas,research significance and the basic analytical framework,introduces the main research contents and innovation and deficiency.Chapter 2-Literature Review.This paper introduces the related theories of this chapter,including the concept of bubble economy,the historical events of the bubble economy,the theoretical demonstration of the existence of the bubble economy and the analysis of the practical process,the analysis of the practice of the bubble economy,the analysis of the causes and influencing factors of the bubble economy,the measurement of the bubble economy,the dangers of the bubble economy Research on Monitoring System and Early Warning System of Bubble Economy.Finally,the existing research is reviewed from both theoretical and practical aspects.Chapter 3-Bubble Economy and Structural Asset Bubble.Similar to inflation,the bubble economy is essentially a price issue,but one is the product price,the other is the price of assets,but the difference is that there are significant differences in the formation mechanism,driving motivation and manifestations.Based on the analysis of the concept of bubble economy,this chapter,combining the theory of behavioral finance and memory value,explores the root causes of the bubble economy.According to the statistical test theory,the bubble economy is divided into two parts:rational bubble and irrational bubble,which foreshadow the subsequent statistical measures.Then,combining with the background of the real credit system and the modern economic characteristics,the expansion of the money quantity equation by introducing the monetary demand of the independent assets transaction to improve the monetary quantity theory.And then based on the study of statistical comprehensive indicators,a pure macro model is transformed into a significant structural characteristics of the model.Chapter 4-Structural Asset Bubble and Capital Flow.structural asset bubbles,in addition to a monetary phenomenon,are closely related to the flow of money.Based on the gravitational model in mechanics,we can construct the corresponding asset market gravitational model by in-depth comparative analysis and variable conversion.Use gravity asset market equilibrium model,complete structural consistency measure asset bubble,analysis of the variables of economic connotation and relations,and the formation mechanism,according to the analysis of the economic connotation of variables and their relationship.Chapter 5-Statistical Monitoring and Early Warning of Structural Asset Bubbles.the relevant statistical methods and techniques are used to construct the statistical monitoring system and early warning system of structural asset bubble,which can provide accurate operational suggestions for the government to prevent the bursting of the bubble economy.Chapter 6-Empirical Evidence from China.This chapter is an empirical part,respectively on two cases,:one is about the structural existence and characteristics of the empirical analysis of asset bubble,product market.in China the real estate market and stock market as the sample data,product,by testing of agglomeration effect of the three market and combing the asset market gravitational model,confirms the existence and characteristics of structural asset bubble from an empirical point of view.The second is about the establishment of China’s structural asset bubble statistics monitoring and early warning system.Chapter 7-Conclusion and Prospect.To summarize all contents of the research conclusion,and put forward the prospect of research better.Through research,we got some basic conclusions:(1)under the "dual economic structure of modern(virtual economy with an empty entity),the traditional monetary quantity equation can’t reveal the money supply,the number of relationship between economic growth and inflation,will be independent assets transaction demand for money in the equation,extension of monetary quantity equation is obtained,in this way,extension model can better reveal the money supply and economic growth,inflation,the complex relationship between asset bubbles;(2)the bubble economy is essentially a structural problem,asset bubble in the specific period,social asset inflows or outflows asset markets,asset bubbles,even monetary aggregates is not excessive,the imbalance of the cash flow may also promote structural asset bubbles;(3)structural asset bubbles driven reason is the charm of asset markets for capital,and capital attraction is gathering effect,when the money attraction factor of disequilibrium state has significant characteristics,structural asset bubble will burst,and the degree of structural asset bubbles depends on the monetary policy,and capital flow channel;(4)The empirical analysis shows that the change of the structural asset bubble in China may be ranked according to the calculation results of the market attractiveness,If the attraction is large,then the flow of funds into the market is also large,their matching rate reached 82.22%.As long as the attractive balance is broken,then the market Structural bubbles will be produced.The monitoring and early warning of the structural asset bubble shows that the short-term bubble of the stock market is obvious,showing high incidence,persistence and speculative significance.Real estate market is almost no short-term bubble,but the long-term bubble is obvious and serious,the suppression of the real estate bubble has been urgent.