Research On The Impact Of Aggregate Financing To The Real Economy And Its Ways On Economic Growth

Economic growth is the foundation of a country's development,and the finance is the core of modern economy development.The relationship between the financial and economic refers to that the finance could accelerate the economic growth and maintain the stable price through its own assets and liabilities.With the development of the economic growth in C hina,the aggregate scale of the fina nce expands greatly,different social financing ways appears rapidly.So it is urgent for us to do research on both the aggregate and the regional financing to the real economy.The central economic work conference held at the end of 2010 put forward the concept of reasonable aggregate financing to the real economy for the first time according to the financial situation of C hina's macro monitoring.Then the government confirms the importance of the aggregate financing to the real economy for many times in the following years.The index of the aggregate financing to the real economy has become one of the focuses of the academic.The research on it could be helpful to the optimization of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.Besides,it can also help the government to strength macro prudent management,monitor the impact of the financial on economic growth and identify the structural difference of the economic.This paper mainly analyzed the impact of aggregate financing to the real economy and the social financing way on the development of economic.We found that the aggregate financing to the real economy in C hina keeps a relative faster growing rate recently and the social financing ways shows different trends.When talking about the investment of the money,we can found that it fluctuated quarterly.The development of the regional aggregate financing to the real economy is also different among different parts of C hina.And then this paper introduced the State Space Estimation and Vector Autoregressive Model to do the empirical analysis on the impact of aggregate financing to the real economy on the development of economy,the impact of the regional financing to the real economy on the regional development as well as the impact of the social financing way on the development of economic growth.We got some following conclusions:The first is about the impact of the aggregate financing to the real economy on the development of economy.The correlation coefficient between the aggregate financing to the real economy and GDP is 0.7381.And the correlation coefficient between the aggregate financing to the real economy and the total retail sales of social consumption goods and the fixed asset investment are respectively 0.7966 and 0.6498.But the correlation coefficient between the aggregate financing to the real economy and the balance of the import and export is relatively lower,only 0.2284.In the condition without the governmental investment,the aggregate financing to the real economy has a positive effect o n the development of economy.That is,one unit change of the aggregate financing to the real economy will make the GDP,the total retail sales of social consumption goods and the investment in fixed assets change respectively 1.0538,1.1177 and 1.0587 units.But taking the governmental investment into consideration,the aggregate financing to the real economy would have greater impact on GDP and the total retail sales of social consumption goods than on the public fiscal expenditure.But it has a different impact on the investment in fixed assets.This indicates that the governmental investment would affect the development of economy in China.If the aggregate financing to the real economy could be implemented together with the public fiscal expenditure,the impact would be much greater.The second conclusion lies in the impact of regional financing to the real economy on the regional development.The correlation coefficients between the regional financing to the real economy and the regional economic development are 0.9467,0.9265 and 0.7918 in Western,Middle and Eastern of C hina respectively.We also found that one unit change of the regional financing to the real economy will lead to more than or nearly one unit change of the GDP in all of the three regions in C hina.The third conclusion is about the impact of social financing way on the economic growth and three industries.The correlation coefficient between the GDP and direct financing is 0.848,but much lower with the indirect financing.And the corr elation coefficient between the direct financing and the second and third industry is relatively higher compared with the first industry.When thinking about the dynamic effect,the indirect financing would have greater impact on GDP than the direct invest ment.The social financing way has a limited effect on the first industry and cannot be a decisive factor of the development of this industry.But the direct financing has greater effect on the second and third industry than the indirect financing.This shows that the financial institutions play a more important role than the capital market in China.This paper may have the following three innovations.The first is that this paper did the research in a new perspective,which is the monetary policy,and focus on the operation mechanism of social financing scale,including the specific connotation and statistical caliber,operation characteristics and supply channels,etc.,and also analyzed the channel and the way of the influence based on the above research,which is an important supplement of the existing research.The second is talking about the importance of the regional financing to the real economy on the economic growth from the regional level.And we also measure the regional scale of social financing loans,corporate bonds and stocks involved in the development and changes of the dynamic correlations,thus to considering the possibility of reducing social cost of financing and the improving of the efficiency of regional economic growth.The third one is that this paper d id a analysis of the proportion relationship of the direct financing and indirect financing,and then measured the impact of the different financing ways on economic growth and the structure of the industries,thus leading to the analysis of the optimization of different social financing ways and put ting forward corresponding policy recommendations.In this paper,the field we should continue to study is to deepen the theoretical study of the financing to the real economy in both the aggregate and the regional perspective,and we should do empirical research us ing some different kinds of methods.