Research On The Evolution Of The Petroleum Industry Organization In The Post-oil Era Based On The SCP Paradigm

The thesis aims to research on the evolving features and trends of oil industry organizations based on the new macro-environment-Post Oil Era(POE),which means that with application of the low carbon emission policies in most of economies,and with the technological breakthrough of new energy sources,the unconventional petroleum and renewable energies will keep substituting conventional oil in the energy supply and consumption.By such wide-ranged and continuous progress,the human society will eventually abandon the use of petroleum.The research uses econometrics model to forecast the oil demand and supply under the condition of POE,and tries to formulate China demand curve,then figures out the market equilibrium condition and the trend of market price.This study has found that the Demand Peak is the key feature of POE,which drives quite differently from the previous Supply Peak opinions from Oil Peak theories.The research tries to combine the SCP paradigm from industrial organization theory and the evolutionary economics theory,and designs a new research model.From this model,the thesis starts at the analysis of environmental changes in POE,carries out empirical study on the organizational behavior,the industry structure,and the market performance given the influences from POE.The thesis analyses the price control behaviors,the resource acquiring behaviors and upstream-downstream integration behaviors in world petroleum industry,and empirically examines market concentration ratio since 2001,the result shows that the oil market structure has been changed by new entry behaviors from other industries.The study also proves that International oil companies,National oil companies and independent oil companies have jointly made a dynamic competitive situation,which has been evolving deeply from the beginning of 21 st.In POE,the future picture is going to favor those which are capable of multi-energy production and are good at market-oriented activities.Furthermore,this study measures the total assets and earning-to-equity ratio for about 30 oil companies,the result shows that POE environment changes has put direct impact on oil industry financial performance.The thesis finally evaluates the Chinese oil industrial features and problems,analyses the change of industrial organization and market behaviors,compares the competitiveness of Chinese oil companies to other international rivals.Built on accumulated information collected through the whole study,the thesis urges the government to foster three policies to uphold Chinese oil industry.