Comparative Analysis Of The Change Of Pace In Economic Growth Between China And Japan

There is an amazing phase of economic growth with high rate in China after reform and opening up.The Chinese economy is transforming from the high growth rate phase to the medium-high growth rate phase in the face of the fading of demographic dividend,and the weak global economic market as a result of global financial crisis.After World War Two,the Japanese economy stepped into the high growth rate phase following the economic reconstruction,then into the medium growth rate phase,finally into the faltering economy phase.The process of catching up with the American economy by Japan came up strongly but turned into asthenia in the end.There are two economic growth pace shifts in Japan in this process which are from the high growth rate phase to the medium growth rate phase,from the medium growth rate phase to the faltering economy phase.The former development experience of the Japanese economy reveals the laws of economic development to some extent,and provides abundant lessons for Chinese economic transformation.Many similar characteristics exist in the high growth rate phase of the two countries,such as the exploitation of late-developing advantage,demographic dividend and exports,the leading role of government in the process of economic development.Therefore,the study of the change of pace in economic growth of Japan provides significant revelations for the change of pace ineconomic growth of China.The data of basic Input-Output tables issued by government are compiled through comprehensive survey and sophisticated statistical work by statistical authorities.They are the most detailed materials which can be attained by now to reflect the realistic economic operating.They can reveal the direct and indirect connections of all kinds of industries in economic productions,and can be used to analyze the ultimate impact of economic elements on economic performance.Based on the Input-Output data of China and Japan,the process of economic development and its implied patterns and characteristics are studied for Japan between 1955 and 2011,and for China between 1987 and 2010.Firstly,the patterns and characteristics of the structure of industries and their contribution to the growth of total output,the ratio of capital to labor,value added per employee and total factor productivity of each industry of different economic development phases in China and Japan are analyzed based on the Input-Output data of the two countries.Secondly,the ultimate impact of consumption,investment and exports on total output of China and Japan is decomposed by the Leontief inverse matrix and the non-competitive Input-Output model.The patterns and characteristics of consumption,investment and exports' significance to total output,and their contribution to the growth of total output by themselves and through the means of industries are examined in terms of ultimate impact.Thirdly,based on the competitive Input-Output model,the ultimate income distribution of labor,capital and government services in China and Japan is extracted from total output by the Leontief inverse matrix and the direct value added coefficient vector.The patterns and characteristics of labor,capital and government services' significance to total output,and their contribution to the growth of total output by themselves and through the means of industries are examined in terms of ultimate income distribution.Moreover,from the above analysis,the implications for the transformation and development of the Chinese economy are provided,and the changing patterns of growth drivers in different economic development periods are concluded.Based on the above analysis,conclusions are as the following:(?)There is an increasing trend in the ratio of capital to labor,and a more and more volatile trend in the growth rate of total factor productivity and value added per employee as the economy is becoming more and more mature.(?)The late-developing advantage is firstly reflected in the increasing of the ratio of capital to labor,secondly in the improving of total factor productivity,and lastly in the creating of value added per employee.The primary industry sector benefited from the late-developing advantage is the export-oriented manufacturing sector.(?)The significance of demand items in the structure of total output usually exhibits a pattern of consumption,investment and exports sorted in descending order.Consumption-led impetus to the growth of total output presents a declining trend,and keeps staying at a low level at the end in terms of ultimate impact as the growth rate of economy is decreasing.The main industry induced by investment changes from infrastructure industry to machinery industry.The machinery industry induced by exports still has some growing space,but the traditional manufacturing industry induced by exports has a diminishing growing space.(?)In terms of the structure of the ultimate income distribution,the pattern is as below: the lower the economic growth rate of a phase is,the higher the proportion of the ultimate labor income is,the lowerthe proportion ofthe ultimate capital income is.A certain level of growth rate of economy is better for the growth of the ultimate labor income than for the growth of the ultimate capital income.(?)The drivers of economic growth should change according to the economic development phase,and can not follow the beaten track.In the medium growth rate phase which is after the high growth rate phase,the route of limited government and market-based economy should be followed,multi-level investment channels should be constructed for the increasing amount of capital to make it serve the development of the real economy and avoid giving rise to asset price bubbles,demographic quality dividend should be exploited,the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship in the society should be evoked,and the internal and external opening should be further promoted along with the deepening of global integration.The implications for the economic transformation and the medium-high growth rate phase of the Chinese economy are as following:(?)It should be emphasized to improve human capital and increase labor productivity.It needs not only to develop education,training and research & development,but also to provide economic incentives to invest in innovation and entrepreneurship.(?)It should take the road of developing consumption,investment and exports in a balanced way to make full use of resources and markets both at home and abroad.(?)It should keep its transformation to limited government and market-based economy,and reduce the share of government in output distribution.(?)It should primarily focus on upgrading the current industry distribution and developing the sector of services,and make it as a supplement to develop emerging industries.(?)The way of economic development should turn from learning and imitation to innovation and entrepreneurship,which particularly needs to foster the corresponding foundation of human capital and finance.