Research On The Market And Price Of Carbon Emission Quota In China

Asone of the three flexible mechanisms of reducing global emissions put forward by the Kyoto protocol,Carbon emission trading systemplays an important role in reduction carbon dioxide emissions,lowering the global average reduction cost,and transmitting the state policy about energy conservation and emission reduction.The international carbon market have developed more mature,and set up more carbon trading platform in the world.Compared with the vigorous development of the international carbon trading market,Chinese market grows more slower,and has not yet formed a unified regional market system.In early 2012,China announced pilot work of carbon emission trading in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Chongqing etc,to establish a domestic carbon emissions trading market gradually.As an emerging market,Chinese carbon cap-and-trade system,attract the global attention.This paper,which focuses on the market and price of Chinese carbon emission quota,adopts the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,starts from the status quo,puts forward the problems,constructs model and applies to data.This papersystematically combs the carbon emission market in China,builds the eight indexes about carbon emission trading market,establishes the pricing model of this market,analyzes the carbon price fluctuation,and presents policy suggestions about the development of carbon emission trading market in China.The main conclusions are as follows.Analysis of Chinese carbon emission trading market.Learning from experience of the international mature market,analyzing quota allocation,reduction targets and volume of seven carbon trading pilot area,this section puts forward that the advantage of these markets in China is strong national policy support and the huge demand and supply,the constraint conditions are lack of micro institutional guarantee,split of the cap control and carbon intensity,the single reduction industry,and lack of related supporting services.The construction of a national unified carbon market is the realistic choice of sustainable development,the urgent need to cope with the international climate change negotiations pressure,and the inevitable trend of international carbon finance market development.Carbon cap-and-trade market in China should follow the following principles,a comprehensive market after pilot,mandatory cuts after industry pilot,government guide before market,the domestic market first,then seek the international competition,elementary trading before carbon financial products innovation.From the longitudinal perspective,a regional carbon market should be built afterthe existing carbon trading pilot,the regional market can avoid the waste of resources,eliminate administrative barrier,form a scale advantage and regional spillover effect,and then to establish a national carbon trading market in the end.Carbon trading market construction should be gradually introduced,government should fully realize thedifference of regional economic development level and environmental resources endowment;Synchronically,the row of industry should be expanded.The pilot is to choose the more energyintensive high emissions,high pollution industry,butthose pilot industry is also the basis of economic development in our country,emissions will continue to increasewith the economic growth,and the cost of those industries will expand when they involved in the trading,therefore,on the premise of capcontrol,it is necessary to enrich the industry,especially those who have room to improve industrial technology and have the potential to cut reduction costs.Recurring to DSR model,choosing eight key indexes about carbon trading market from the perspective of driving force and state of urban development,using 30 provinces data of 2005~2009,this section also carries out preliminary hierarchical cluster analysis on carbon emission trading market of China and presents that the establishment of a national carbon trading market should not be divided into provinces,and walk step by step,Chinese carbon trading market should,first of all,consider the thermal power industry.Research on the reduction cost of carbon emission trading market.From the perspective of cost,this section first studies the enterprise reduction cost in carbon emission market through game theory from the micro perspective,and discusses the equilibrium results.Enterprises will actively participate in carbon cap-and-trade market if their profit and the expected potential benefits outweigh the costs.Three static game model of the electric power enterprise research shows that as long as the marginal cost of obvious differences between enterprises,they will tend to beinvolved in trading,or refused to in the trading game Nash equilibrium.Without no additional incentives or penalties,under the absence of a mandatory emissions reduction targets,as long as there is a company choose not to participate in trade,after the repeated game,all enterprises will choose not to participate in trade.Therefore,to establish and improve rules and regulationsof the carbon cap-and-trade market,improve the market mechanism,is not just the basic guarantee of healthy operation of market,but also the promotion of the enterprises to actively participate in carbon trading,maintaining market liquidity.A lack of energy,even zero trading carbon market,is unable to achieve the efficient allocation of environmental resources.In the second,based on the binding target in the twelfth five year plan,this section constructs European option model with carbon dioxide emission rights,calculates the initial starting point of carbonemission in 2010 and the threshold in the due date 2015,then implements empirical research with the panel data of 30 provinces in China and obtains each province’s potential cost caused by the binding target.First,according to the population growth model,this section use population statistics,and estimate the parameters with Mat lab,and second,with the method of IPCC,this section calculate carbon emissions from all provinces and municipalities,and simulate the parameters of the simplified model with the aid of Eviews software,finally,with the application of Mat labsoftware,this section provide potential cost.This paper clearly outline of the provinces cost value of the emission reduction task..Therefore,this chapter of empirical studies have found that a unified target set can bring huge increase in potential cost ofthe Midwest part of the province,whose goalis to develop economic and the foundation has yet to be further perfected.It is certainly a great burden for those provinces.Therefore,the goal of dynamic decomposition and examination system of Chinese carbon intensity target completion is critical,and it is vital forthe subsequent development of carbon cap-and-trade market in China.Pricing problem about carbon emission quota.Based on the present situation of carbon emission market,this section builds models to deeply study problems such as the different distribution will affect the price of carbon trading,and how to determine the carbon price under different market structures.First of all,to distinguish the different quota allocation,general enterprise profit function are built,and according to the first-order conditions,optimal strategies,enterpriseproduction and the carbon price reaction functions are got respectively.A numerical example of the electric power enterprises are also carried out.Two kinds of carbon emissions quota allocation have different degrees of influence on the profit,carbon emissions and carbon emissions of the trading enterprise.Electricity market examples show that all revenue of the high emissions and low emission enterprises under the uniform price is the same,the price of carbon emissions quota is also the same,butthe distribution of the output of low emission enterprise is the most advantageous.The unity of the electricity market pricing will make profit no difference under different allocation,enterprises lack the necessary incentive to choose low emissions.Therefore,according to different industries refining carbon emissions initial quota allocation is necessary.Secondly,utility functions and constraint conditions are constructed from perspective of possible market structures such as the perfect competition market,the seller complete monopoly market,the seller oligopoly market,and the leading seller and competitive subordinate market,to determine their equilibrium market prices.Carbon emissions quota price of the perfect competition market is equal to the marginal cost of all trading companies,and all market revenue is the biggest.The carbon emission quota price of the oligopoly and monopoly seller market is equal to the marginal cost of the buyer,and enterprises gain the monopoly profit,the all social welfare is reduced.Thecarbon emission quotas price of the dominated seller and the competitive slave market is equal to the marginal cost of the seller or buyer,and the market still exists monopoly profit,the social welfare is also reduced.Therefore,the establishment and improvement of Chinese carbon emissions quota market pricing mechanism should be accelerated,and based on the early stage of the pilot,reasonable price system of carbon market in China should be put forward,so as to avoid arbitrariness of the risk of market price fluctuations,which harm the healthy development of the carbon market.Fluctuations of international carbon price.How the international carbon price fluctuations affect Chinese macroeconomic.This section will give the logic relation and transmission path of the impact.International carbon price swings in international energy price fluctuations,leads to changes in the cost of international energy intensive products,and the demand of international energy intensive products fluctuates,the feedback of domestic investment changes rapidly,while due to the limited price management of domestic energy,low energy policy makes the domestic energy-intensive products costs are relatively cheap,energy resource consumes faster,although the international demand changes,the profit volume of domestic enterprises is great and profit rate is low with the lack of pricing power.This paperselects the EU carbon trading price index and Chinese energy price index to analyze the impact on energy price which is the important factor in Chinese macroeconomic.There is long term cointegration relationship between the international carbon emissions quota price and Chinese energy prices,and the carbon price and energy price are the granger reason in China.Great attention should be paid to the long-term healthy development of energy industry,improve energy enterpriseinternational competitiveness,and more importantly,with the development of Chinese carbon cap-and-trade market,the international carbon price fluctuations will also interfere with the domestic carbon market,therefore,it is vital for Chinese present carbon trading market stage to establish perfect system of the market trading as soon as possible,and form the norm of price risk prevention mechanism.Policy suggestions on the development of carbon market in China.According to the results of both qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper proposes that the construction of carbon emission trading market need perfect rules and regulations.Construction of carbon market should be promoted gradually.Impact on the economic development should also be fully considered.It is urgent to accelerate the establishment and perfection of pricing mechanism in Chinese carbon market.China should involve the market construction in the global range.