Study On Multi-attribute Decision Making With Uncertainty And Its Applications In Evaluation Of Shipping Enterprise

In order to evaluate the operation management of shipping enterprises scientifically and reasonably,the research about performance evaluation of shipping enterprises is conducted to direct and modify the management mode of shipping enterprises.In this paper,the performance evaluation of shipping enterprises is abstracted and viewed as an uncertain multi-attribute decision making problem.According to the systematic analysis and study,the following issues about the performance evaluation of shipping enterprises are pointed out:First,the evaluation index system is insufficiently comprehensive and rational;Second,the decision information has diversity;Third,the decision information is uncertain and the weight information of attributes may be unknown;Fourth,it is necessary to study the aggregation of uncertain information;Final,the decision makers have limited sense.Thus,based on intuitionistic fuzzy set,evidence theory and prospect theory,the main works of this paper are accomplished as follows:(1)A hybrid multi-attribute decision making approach based on evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,three kinds of hybrid information including precision numbers,interval numbers and linguistic variables are unified by intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to retain the uncertainty of decision.Then,prospect decision matrix considering limited rationality of prospect theory is expressed by intuitionistic fuzzy number.Finally,prospect decision information integration using evidential reasoning approach is put forward to reduce the decision information miss in the calculation.(2)An approach is proposed further to analyze multi-attribute decision making problems in which the criteria values are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and the information of attributes weights is unknown.Firstly,in order to determine the objective and reasonable attribute weights,the measures of entropy and cross entropy are defined for intuitionistic fuzzy sets by taking into consideration the preference of decision makers towards hesitancy degree and dealing with the invalidity problems of the existing measures in some special cases.Then,in the light of prospect theory,the correlational analyses are conducted between the attribute weights and the three indicators which are entropy,cross entropy and prospect value,and optimization models for identifying attribute weights are built under the circumstances that the weights are incomplete or unknown.(3)A multi-attribute group decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed further.Firstly,because there are conflicts between decision information provided by experts,a new method for measuring the degree of conflict between evidence is put forward by mixing the distance and divergence between evidence and utilized to determine the reliability degrees of experts.Then,the evidential reasoning rule is used to aggregate the group decision information by taking into account the reliability degrees and weights of experts.(4)A multi-attribute large group decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed further.Since the number of experts who take part in the decision making is large,an expert clustering algorithm based on evidence conflict are presented to divide experts into several clusters.Then,according to the clustering results,the information provided by experts within and among clusters is aggregated by using Dempster combine rule and the evidential reasoning rule respectively to obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.(5)Based on uncertain multi-attribute decision making methods,the performance evaluation of shipping enterprises is studied.Firstly,in view of the characteristics of the shipping industry,an integrated model for performance evaluation of shipping enterprises is established based on related performance evaluation methods.Then,a comprehensive method for performance evaluation of shipping enterprises is put forward by fusing the proposed decision making approaches.Finally,an empirical analysis is carried on in the light of the integrated model and the comprehensive method for performance evaluation of shipping enterprises.Aiming at the practice problems of the performance evaluation of shipping enterprises,the multi-attribute decision making methods are proposed.Moreover,these methods can be applied to the correlative evaluation and decision problems in transportation and other fields.