| China is playing an important role in global agricultural markets due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the years following WTO accession. The demand for agricultural products as consumption goods and raw materials is increasing. The rising demand for consumption agricultural good is due to China’ s gradual liberalization, rising living standards and changing consumption patterns. The rising demand for raw materials such as cotton and animal feeds is due to the developing of agricultural product processing enterprises. Slow growth in domestic supply and growing costs of feed, labor and land are pushing domestic cotton, cereals, meat and dairy prices higher, which makes imported agricultural goods more competitive in China. China’ s agricultural imports reflect its relative scarcity of land and water resources. Making full use of international market is an inevitable choice of meeting the domestic needs of the agricultural products.International and internal attention focused on the impact of China’ s agricultural imports. As one of the most direct and effective way of world resources utilization,import can increase domestic food supply, relieve pressure on resources and environment effectively. But some people worry about the self-sufficiency of food and the development of agriculture. Policymakers face a dilemma when making agricultural import trade policies. Supply and demand are two aspects of the market. There is less research about the influence of agricultural import from the perspective of demander despite of lots of research from the perspective of demand. The relation between import variety and the welfare of consumer and agricultural products processing industries is a new perspective.The increasing of import variety is an important source for a country’ s gains from import trade. It is necessary to study the relations between the import of agricultural products and the welfare of domestic consumers and the productivity of agricultural products processing industries from the perspective of variety. We will research the influence of the import variety of agricultural products on domestic welfare. The research of this paper can provide new reference for policymakers.The unmeasured growth in agricultural products variety from China imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last decade (2003-2013) . The value to Chinese consumers of the expanded import varieties can be calculated by using the exact aggregate price index, which means that the conventional import price index over this time period may be bias. Furthermore, the productivity of agricultural products processing industries can be enhanced by using more varieties of intermediate inputs.The fourth chapter studies the influence mechanism of import variety to gain of consumer and agricultural products processing industries. The fifth chapter analyzes the change trend of the import of agricultural products in 2003-2013 using the three-element analysis method by dividing it into three margins that is extensive margin, price margin and quantity margin. The result means that the change of variety plays an important role in the growth of agricultural products. The sixth chapter studies relations between the variety of agricultural imports and the productivity of agricultural products processing industries. The seventh chapter is about the relation between welfare of consumer and the variety of agricultural imports. Specifically, the main contents and related conclusions are as follows:Part one: The contribution of variety to the growth of import of agricultural products.Fifth chapter studies the contribution of import variety by dividing the import growth into three parts. The results show that: (1) the contribution of quantity is the largest.The result means that the domestic demander can buy enough agricultural products to meet their needs. (2) Followed the first result is the impact of price increases. The result means that the domestic demander needs to pay more for the same imported goods.(3) The contribution of variety is the lowest. The result means that the domestic demander can buy more varieties of agricultural products, which means that we have been importing more agricultural goods from more countries in the past decade. The result depends on lots of factors, such as the endowment constraints of China, the increases in demand and the risen cost of material and labor. China needs import lots of agricultural products in the future.Part two: the growth of import variety can prompt the productivity of downstream agricultural products processing industries.The sixth chapter studies the relation between import variety of agricultural product and the productivity of agricultural products processing industries by fixed effect panel data model. The results show that: (1) the growth of agricultural import variety can prompt the productivity of downstream agricultural products processing industries. (2)the growth of import variety cannot prompt the productivity of agricultural products processing industries. (3) the growth of un-agricultural import variety cannot prompt the downstream productivity of agricultural products processing industries.Part three: The domestic consumers have gained from the unmeasured imported variety of agricultural products.The seventh chapter studies the relation between agricultural import variety and consumer gains using agricultural exact price index with variety change. The results show that the agricultural exact price index is lower than the traditional price index without variety change,which means that the domestic consumer’ s utility is unchangeable if they pay less than before.Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased. We also estimate the elasticity of substitution for each available category at the same level of aggregation, and describe their behavior across time and industries. Using these estimates, we develop an exact aggregate price index and find that the upward bias in the conventional import price index over this time period was 3.67 percent or 0. 33 percentage points per year. We estimate the value to domestic consumers of the expanded import varieties between 2003 and 2013 to be 0. 36 percent of agricultural GDP. Furthermore, the empirical strategy is extended to investigate specific contributions of different countries, and finds that China gains the most from Americas, followed by Asia. Countries with abundant natural resources, such as USA,Brazil, Australia and Canada also contribute significantly to China’s welfare. We also investigate specific contributions of different kind of products, and find that the most from oilseeds, followed by Livestock products and vegetable oils. The domestic consumer gains from consumer-oriented agricultural goods much more than other goods.The following conclusions are drawn in the paper: The variety change is very important to domestic demander. It can prompt the productivity of downstream agricultural products processing industries. The domestic consumers have gained from the unmeasured imported variety of agricultural products. Suggestions are as follows:Firstly, we should change the mind that paying close attention to export trade and underestimate and even ignore trade functions of import trade. Secondly, we should import mort agricultural variety, such as more goods and more sources of imports.Finally , different policies are for different products. We can import more consumer-oriented agricultural products for domestic consumer. We also can import more intermediate agricultural products for downstream agricultural products processing industries.At last, this paper points out future research directions. Such as influence factor of agricultural import variety, further research with firm-level data, the dynamic trade benefits of China’s import and trade conditions of agricultural products trade in China with variety change. |
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