Research On ODI Reverse Technology Spillover And Manufacturing Upgrade Path Under GVC Pattern

"Made in China 2025" is China’s first decade program of action to strengthen the power of manufacturing,which means our country started to advance manufacturing power comprehensively.Since the reform and opening up,China’s manufacturing industry has experienced unprecedentedly development.During the process of participating into the globalization production network,our country obtained a large number of global dividends through trade and FDI channel taking advantage of China’s low labor cost,land cost as well as other comparative advantages.After the financial crisis,many companies of China’s traditional manufacturing industries such as toys,cloth manufacturing industries have shut down due to the crisis.The automobile and the communication equipment manufacturing industry have been governed by foreign enterprises.These facts arouse our government,enterprises and academics awareness of the necessity of manufacturing industry upgrading.The slowdown of global economy,the excess capacity of traditional manufacturing industry in China,coupled with rising domestic manufacturing costs make more and more enterprises go overseas to find a solution.How to combine the "go global" strategy with the strategy of manufacturing power is under spotlight,which leads to the discussion of the relationship between ODI reverse technology spillovers and the manufacturing industry upgrading.This thesis introduces macro and micro-level data to systematically research into the impact of ODI reverse technology spillovers on the China’s manufacturing industry upgrading through the following five aspects: First,we generalized and analyzed relevant studies related to the theory of global value chain,the theory of international technology spillovers and industrial upgrading theory;Second,we summarized the characteristics of different stages of international ODI and China’s ODI and measured the status and participation degree of China’s manufacturing industry on the global value chain;Third,we built the technology circulation model of the ODI reverse technology spillovers and introduced gray correlation analysis to prove the assumptions made by the model;Fourth,we contrasted the different technology spillover effects of different channels in manufacturing industry and explored how the technology spillover from domestic R&D,import,FDI and ODI channels influence different technology-intensive manufacturing industries.Last aspect is that we selected typical manufacturing industries and summarized the valuechain segments distributed on global value chain by ODI in order to study the emphasis of the upgrading path of different technology-intensive manufacturing industry.These five aspects of the work interlock with each other and form the basic framework of this study.The scale of China’s outward foreign direct investment is still far from that of the developed countries in the world,which means the scale of China’s outward foreign direct investment can’t match the status of China’s current economic power.As China’s outward foreign direct investment continues to increase,investment entities,investment motivations and investment destinations began to change.From the perspective of the investment entity,the percentage of limited liability companies is overwhelmingly growing much larger than the state-owned enterprises while the investment scale of the state-owned enterprises remains the largest and still expanding along with the time.From the perspective of the investment industry,the motivation of China’s outward foreign direct investment is still at the stage of looking for resources and markets,the investments which search for efficiency and strategic assets is still inadequate.From the perspective of the investment country,China’s outward foreign direct investment implements the strategy of "rural encircling the city",the investment area is changing from mainly in developing countries to the developed countries.With these changes in investment entity,investment motivations and investment destinations of China’s outward foreign direct investment,it is necessary to discuss the different effects of ODI reverse technology spillovers under different perspectives.The participation rate of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain is quite high for both general level and subdivision industries.However,the status of manufacturing subdivision industries is different.During the past ten years,the status of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain has improved,but after the financial crisis,the upward momentum is hampered.In this thesis,we use the DEA model to calculate the Malmquist index,which measures the change of total factor productivity of manufacturing industry,and classifies the manufacturing industry as low-tech industry,medium-low-tech industry,medium-high-tech industry and high-tech industry according to OECD classification.By computing different types of ODI reverse technology spillover,the gray relational model is established to explore the relationship between different types of ODI reverse technology spillover and manufacturing industry TFP growth rate,as well as the relationship betweendifferent types of ODI reverse technology spillover and different technology-intensive manufacturing industries.These evidences support the hypothesis which was deduced from the technology circulation model.At the same time,this thesis focuses on the technology spillover channels of manufacturing industry.We introduce the Solow model and revise it with lags to construct the empirical model which explores the impact of the multi-dimensional channels of technology overflow on the manufacturing industry upgrading in China.The empirical analysis based on the data of subdivision industry panel data as well as the cluster technology intensive panel data shows that the technology spillover obtained from domestic R & D investment and import channels is an important force to promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry in China while the technology spillover from traditional FDI channels hinders the upgrading of manufacturing industry which suggests our country need to change the way of attracting inward foreign direct investment.ODI reverse technology spillover effect is far from obvious which indicates that to encourage and guide the outward foreign direct investment is particularly important.Based on the analysis of value chain segments decomposition of typical manufacturing industry in China and the distribution status of micro-enterprises’ value chain segments on global value chain through ODI,we can conclude that the obstruction of low-tech and medium-low-tech industries in the global value chain is mainly due to the lack of brand building and marketing.These two types of industries rely on the past processing trade development path.China’s medium-high-tech industries and high-tech industries are slow to upgrade along the global value chain mainly because of the lack of core technology.They are dependent on the import of core components from other countries or MNEs.Combining the results based on the models of macro-level data,this thesis proposes a series of policy suggestions,such as promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises,encouraging the joint-stock companies to invest abroad;increasing the investment in manufacturing industry and optimizing investment structure;initiating mergers and acquisitions to seek advanced technology in developed countries and use green investment to take advantage of efficiency and explore the market in developing countries;adopting different paths of industrial upgrading by different technology-intensive industries and constructing national value chain and maximize the effect of inter-industry,interregional cooperation to realize the manufacturing industrial upgrading.