Research On The Impact Of Producer Service Trade On The Upgrading Of Manufacturing Industry In China

By more than 20 years of development,China’s economy has entered a new normal.Correspondingly,the development of manufacturing industry in China is double troubled by steady growth and structural adjustment,experiencing a dual extrusion from both developed countries and emerging economies,facing a dilemma of rapid decline in the low cost advantage and emerging of new competitive advantage,which need urgently to achieve a leap from the low-end to high-end of industrial chain through the transformation and upgrading.Historical research shows that the development of producer services industry has a significant role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Due to the relative lag of the domestic producer service industry,the promoting role of producer services to promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector in China remains to be further strengthened.In this context,the rapid increase in the level of service trade in the manufacturing sector through producer services is a practical shortcut.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study how to promote the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry through developing producer services.In this paper,the contribution and transmission mechanism of the impact of producer services on the upgrading of manufacturing industry are explained.Firstly,the related research at home and abroad were found out that,the upgrading of the manufacturing industry is no uniform definition,although some scholars have put forward different opinions,most scholars believe that producer services import trade and FDI have a significant role in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry.And the literature on the impact of producer services export trade and OFDI on the upgrading of manufacturing industry is very rare.Secondly,this paper systematically describes the evolution of China’s producer services trade and manufacturing upgrading,which shows that there is a certain relationship between them.Finally,this paper argues that producer services trade can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry by means of supply and demand changes effect,competition effect,technology spillover effect,scale economy effect,capital accumulation effect,attracting high-end manufacturing FDI effect,and system optimization effect,but there are some differences in the impact of different trade modes.This paper empirically analyzes the impact of producer services on the upgrading of manufacturing industry from two aspects: First,the paper uses multiple regressions,vector auto regression and grey relational theory to analyze the impact of producer services trade on the upgrading of manufacturing inter-industry.It is found that the export of producer services has a significant positive effect on the upgrading of the overall structure of the manufacturing industry,while the import of producer services has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of the whole structure of the manufacturing industry.There is no Granger causality between the proportion of output value of labor-intensive manufacturing industry and producer services export trade and producer services import trade;There is a one-way Granger causality between the import trade of producer services and the proportion of capital intensive;Producer services export trade and producer services import trade have a one-way Granger causality to the proportion of the technology intensive manufacturing industry;There are significant differences in the impact of different producer services on the upgrading of manufacturing industry;Producer services FDI and OFDI industry structure is closely related to the upgrading of manufacturing industry.The second part is to build up the index system to measure the value chain of manufacturing industry,and the entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight to measure the rising value chain of manufacturing industry.Based on the Malmquist-DEA method,the paper calculates the technological progress index of manufacturing industry.And uses two indexes to represent the upgrading of manufacturing industry,analyze the impact of producer services trade on the upgrading of manufacturing intra-industry.It is found that the export trade of producer services only has a significant positive effect on the upgrading the value chain of of the technology intensive manufacturing industry,has a negative positive effect on the technological progress of the overall manufacturing industry and the three types of manufacturing industry;the import trade of producer services significantly promotes the upgrading of the value chain of the whole manufacturing industry and capital-intensive manufacturing industry,but has a significant positive effect on the technological progress of the overall manufacturing industry and the three types of manufacturing industry;the effect of import and export producer services on the upgrading of industrial value chain and technological progress in different industries is affected by the factor intensive characteristics of manufacturing industry;there are some differences between the FDI and OFDI of producer services industries in the three types of manufacturing industry,and the impact of producer service OFDI is less than that of producer services FDI.According to the main conclusions of this paper and the experiences and lessons of the United States and Japan,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the productive service trade to promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:(1)On the basis of combing the measurement indicators of the upgrading of the manufacturing industry,the paper introduces two indicators of the proportion of intangible assets and the profit rate of sales expenses,and constructs a more comprehensive index system to measure the upgrading of the value chain of manufacturing industry;the entropy weight method is used to calculate the index weight,which can be used to estimate the status of manufacturing industry value chain;to build the index system of manufacturing upgrade from two dimensions of intra-industry and inter-industry,the status of manufacturing upgrading can be analyzed more systematically.(2)For the first time,this paper makes a systematic and comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of services import and export trade as whole,sub sectors of producer services import and export trade and sub sectors of producer services FDI and OFDI on the upgrading of manufacturing industry.