The Correlation Mechanism Of Inflation,Economic Growth And Macroeconomic Policy

In this paper,the reality of the interaction between the main economic variables and the characteristics of the main economic variables are changing as a research background.First,it clarifies the relationship between inflation and economic growth and macroeconomic policy.And then from the theoretical simulation and measurement analysis of the measure to start using the economic theory model and the new measurement method to 1996 economic "soft landing" so far based on the latest data length,on inflation,economic growth and macro Economic policy of the associated mechanism to carry out a systematic study.First of all,it systematically introduces the historical development process and current situation of China’s economic growth,inflation and macroeconomic policies,and on the basis of the relevant theories and literatures,how to regulate the economic growth and inflation through monetary policy and fiscal policy analysis.Secondly,based on the data such as the macroeconomic consensus index,the money supply,the consumer price index and the GDP growth rate,the MF-VAR(mixed data vector autoregressive)model under the Bayesian algorithm,From the dynamic point of view given the form of non-destructive information,compared the VAR model and MF-VAR model of the estimated results,and then test the economic growth and inflation of the associated mechanism,the level of inflation and economic growth between the level of value As well as the dynamic interaction between inflation volatility and economic growth volatility.This paper mainly draws up two conclusions,on the one hand,the mixed data vector autoregressive model can make full use of the information neglected in the data down-conversion process,and thus have more advantages.On the other hand,because China’s economy is still in the general demand-driven stage and the early accumulation of high accumulation policy stage,so the economic operation in the short term there is a "Tobin effect",on the contrary,economic fluctuations will weaken the price sticky.According to this,mainly to the government put forward two aspects of policy recommendations,on the one hand can be induced by price inflation and other means to control the supply side,the accumulation of stock into consumer and investment demand to stimulate economic growth.On the other hand,it is important to keep the inflation level in a reasonable range.Then,based on the data of the main consumer price index and the money supply year-on-year growth rate,the non-parametric Granger causality test and the MS model and the MS-AR(1)model are constructed by observing the statistical characteristics of the variables.According to the variance volatility rate of regional division,the inertia and volatility of China’s inflation characteristics were tested,and analyzed the total monetary policy and inflation of the regional association.The first conclusion is that China’s inflation level and volatility are always the same trend,and because our country does not fully realize the price market and the market is expected to adjust slowly and other factors,inflation has long existed Strong inertia;the second is the current round of "low inflation" cycle of the duration of about 5 years;the third is the monetary policy authorities will not easily implement a comprehensive and loose monetary policy.According to this,the government has put forward three policy proposals,one is the policy authorities in addition to the price level to monitor the value of the volatility of the real-time concern,and attach great importance to the price changes in the adjacent;The government needs to take full account of the monetary policy effect caused by inflation due to the lag of the monetary policy to enhance the forward-looking and effectiveness of monetary policy to match the structure of the inflation period;the third is the government should use more structured money tools,Play a total amount of monetary policy directional water function.Then,based on the data such as inflation gap,output gap,interest rate and money supply,combined with the Taylor rule and the McCormum rule,the LT-TVP-VAR(time-dependent coefficient with potential threshold variables Vector autoregressive model)analyzes the characteristics of time-varying response of inflation and output of "price type" and "quantity type" monetary policy and its regulation mode.The third is that China’s "price" and "quantitative" monetary policy and the gap between inflation and output has a threshold effect,the central bank’s preferences exist asymmetry;the second is the "Price" monetary policy to avoid the output contraction preferences,"quantitative" monetary policy has a weak to avoid deflation preferences;the third is the "price" policy to control the deflation effect is better,and "quantitative" policy control currency Expansion,stimulation of output growth and inhibition of economic overheating is better.According to this,the main government to the three policy recommendations,one is to rationally view and adapt to economic slowdown,with the macroeconomic structural adjustment to develop targeted monetary policy;the second is to expand the interest rate Policy to induce moderate inflation,and "quantitative" monetary policy as the main economic growth;the third is to speed up the improvement of interest rate market transmission mechanism,in order to enhance the "price" monetary policy to create a good environment.Then,based on the data of consumer price index,fiscal deficit,economic prosperity index,interest rate and money supply quarterly growth rate,etc.,by constructing TVP-VAR(time-varying parameter vector autoregressive)Variable impact response function and isochronal time-varying shock response function,the inflation effect of China’s fiscal deficit is tested and the dominance of the monetary authorities and the financial authorities is discussed.Mainly on the second side of the conclusion,on the one hand is the current stage of the fiscal deficit in the short term with "Keynes effect",and in the long run,both follow the "Ricardo" principle,but also has a weak "crowded effect." On the other hand,although the financial authorities are better than the monetary authorities,but the fiscal deficit needs to cooperate with monetary policy to affect the price level.On the one hand,the Government in the short term can expand the deficit by way of increased support for the weak links such as people’s livelihood and induce moderate inflation to achieve the inventory,from the supply of Side to guide economic growth,but also to keep monetary policy tight.On the other hand,the government needs to further improve the reform of the fiscal system and the reform of the monetary system.It needs to strengthen the independence of the People’s Bank of China and control the scale of the fiscal deficit and further optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure.Finally,based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),household consumption price index,fiscal expenditure,fiscal revenue growth rate and economic prosperity index,we construct TAR(threshold autoregressive)model,STR(smooth migration)model and MS-VAR(Markov Vector Autoregressive)model to test the mechanism of fiscal expenditure and fiscal revenue on economic growth in China.On the one hand,the TAR model and the STR model do not apply to the study of this problem.China’s fiscal policy has no threshold and smooth migration effect on economic growth,while the MS-VAR model can be more scientific To estimate the non-linear effect of fiscal policy on economic growth.On the other hand,according to the MS-VAR model,in terms of stability,the regional zone 3 is optimal,and the regional system is the worst,and in the case of the impact of economic growth on fiscal expenditure,System 3 the strongest,regional system 2 times,the regional system 1 the weakest,only in the district system 1,the impact of fiscal revenue policy impact is negative.On the one hand,if the economy is in the zoning 1,it is necessary to adopt fiscal policy to reduce fiscal revenue,and at the same time,it is necessary to increase the expenditure of financial expenditure to Should be the effect;and when the economy is in the district 2,should be taken to expand fiscal expenditure mainly fiscal policy,at the same time,you can moderate increase in fiscal revenue to support the expansion of fiscal expenditure;if the economy is in the district 3,should take To reduce fiscal spending to cool the economy or to slightly expand fiscal spending to maintain rapid economic growth strategy.On the other hand,the government should further innovate the fiscal revenue and expenditure in order to create a favorable environment for economic development.