The Research Of Shadow Banking Risk Based On The Mcro-prudential Perspective

The concept of shadow banking was first put forward on the Fed's annual meeting in 2007.Early shadow banking combined effect of financial innovation and structural change appeared in the US since the 1930s.Shadow banking began to emerge in the world's financial system because of the technological innovation of financial networks and generally liberal financial regulation since the 1970s.Chinese shadow banking base on the excess liquidity and the financing difficulties of Chinese financial market.Its presence does address a part of the financing problem,but the risk of shadow banking is also increasingly prominent.The existing research of shadow banking focused onits main participating institutions and financial derivativescreated in the process of asset securitization,while the research of the risk and supervisionof shadow banking on a macro levelis very few.Based on the situation above,this paper researches the shadow banking risk from the mcro-prudential perspective,analyzes the action mechanism of shadow banking to financial stability,the systemic risk and macro-prudential supervision of shadow banking.On the basis of combing the relevant researches,this paper makes the related conceptdefinitionand theoretical basis,whichprovide the theory support for this paper's follow-up study.This paper studies the composition and operation mode of shadow banking in China and America,andsummarizes the risk's characteristics of shadow banking system of China and the US,which provide practical basis for the follow-up innovative research and policy recommendations of this paper.Effect of shadow banking on financial stability and systemic risks ofshadow banking arethe key content of this paper.This paper uses normative analysis and empirical analysis method to study the effects of shadow banking on the financial stability;analyzes the action mechanism of shadow banking to financial stability from three aspects,that are the effects of shadow banking on thetraditional commercial bank,shadow banking's impact on monetary policy and pro-cyclical effect;studies the development motivation of shadow banking in China and the real impact of Chinese shadow banking on financial stability by using empirical measurement methods.This paper sorts out the meaning and the process of dynamic evolution of systemic risk;analyzed the characteristics of systemic risk from the time dimension and the space dimension;and introduces the existing measure method of systemic risk.On the basis of the above research,combined with the formation mechanism of shadow banking's systemic risk,this paper constructs the measure model of Chinese shadow banking's systemic risk and makes an empirical test,that provide objective evidence for management of Chinese shadow banking's systemic risk.In this paper,the Basel III and the United States of the Dodd Frank act on the reform progress and the specific measuresof macro-prudential supervision are introduced;based on these advanced supervision idea,this paper puts forward the suggestions on macro-prudential supervision on shadow banking in China.The main research results of this paper include the following four points.First,based on the analysis of the connotation elements of shadow banking connotation elements,this paper gives a more comprehensive and objective concept of shadow banking;and the main financial institutions and financial instruments,which constitute the shadow banking system in our country,are classified and summarized in this paper.Second,this paper estimates the scale data of Chinese shadow banking on the nearly ten years,reveals the reasons of the development of Chinese shadow banks through the empirical analysis,reveals shadow banking has important influence on financial stability through the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,presents two aspects of the influence of shadow banking onfinancial stability,which is the risk of the shadow banking system of the time and space dimensions.Third,this paper uses the input-output method to measure the systemic riskof the shadow banking system,constructs the measure model to estimate the systemic riskof Chinses shadow banking in 2008?2015 through empirical test.Fourth,this paper puts forward the concept of macro-prudential supervision of shadow bankingandgivesthe suggestions on macro-prudential supervision on shadow banking in China,includingmonitoring and supervision.This paper researches on the shadow banking risk from the mcro-prudential perspective.The main contents include the influence of shadow banking on financial stability,systemic riskof shadow banking system,and macro-prudential supervision of shadow banking.These contents can make up for the deficiencies of the existing domestic related research in a certain extent,and have a certain theoretical significance.Meanwhile,with the continuous improvement of shadow banks in China,the research of shadow banking risk from the macro-prudential perspectivehas important practical significance for the maintenance of macroeconomic stability and the improvement the financial system in China.