Industry Economic Growth Research Based On System Dynamics Perspective

Economic growth in itself has no objects limited,depending on the growth of the body,which can be classified into national economic growth,industrial growth,business growth and products economic growth the four categories,and higher levels of economic growth depends on a relatively low level of economic growth.Thus,the industrial economic growth is the cornerstone of national economic growth,to study the macro-econmy growth of industrial economy can make a better contribute to the analysis of macroeconomic growth,structure,quality and other issues.Therefore,taking the industry as the main part of the economic growth,from the system point of view,to establish a basic analysis framework of industrial economic growth,and put forward the path of sustainable industrial economic growth,is a new perspective of economic growth.Industrial economic system is a complicated nonlinear system,and the scientific and technological progress,policy adjustment,social progress and other issues will have affect on the operation of industrial economic system.The study of industrial economic growth is a necessary complement to macroeconomic growth of our country,especially in our country industrial structure adjustment,ecological and environmental protection and other issues continue to further study.Based on the research paradigm of" putting forward a problem,analysis the problem and solving the problem "and logical approach of" Literature review,concept definition,current situation,motivation analysis and then the model and empirical test",this paper study on industrial economic growth from the theoretical analysis to the empirical analysis by using the theory of economic growth,the industrial economics theory,the theory of system dynamics.And about the theoretical analysis,this paper applies to the perspective of internal biochemical of economic growth model.The economic growth theory has experienced from the initial capital,labor,energy and other basic elements of the basic model of the framework,in the development process,and then gradually internalized the productivity,knowledge,population,government and other factors.However economic growth is a complex system,so many factors can not be included in the model of economic growth.Therefore,based on the organizing of economic growth theory and industrial economic theory,the paper uses stochastic frontier model to decompose the output of the industry,and through the analysis of investment growth effect,scale effect,technical progress,technical efficiency,the paper has a preliminary analysis and judgment on the industrial economic growth.Then using the study of complex problems of system dynamics as a tool,based on the analysis of industrial economic growth,from labor,energy,capital,technology and environment those five aspects,building five subsystems:employment population subsystem,energy subsystem,material apital subsystem,technology innovation subsystem and environment subsystem the paper discusses the impact way of those increasing on the idustrial added value as well as the interaction between the factors.Finally,it chooses industry as the industrial economic growth system dynamics model of empirical research object,using Vensim system to simulate the growth of the industrial economy from 2005 to 2025 and through the control of some parameters,analysis the industrial economy in the benchmark scenario,investment pull scenarios,technology improvement scenarios and environmental friendly those four scenarios to make the best choice of industrial economic growth path and related policy recommendations.The main research results of this paper:first it is based on the research results of previous studies,and combines with current economic growth problems of our country and the trend of industrial economic growth,from the narrow sense and broad sense of the definition of industrial economic growth.Second Through the stochastic frontier of industrial economy growth effect,it conclude that the investment growth effect is determined by the proportion of investment and the growth rate of capital,and more common of higher capital investment growth rate,more significant effect on growth of each industry investment.and the contribution of total factor growth rate is increasing,which may be mainly from the increase of investment in education and scientific research in our country so the human capital play an important role,and through technological progress and technical efficiency,and both of these make the improvement of TFP.Third industrial economic growth has important effect on the stability of the national economy,as well as environment pollutionby system dynamics analysis of the industrial economic growth,and combined with different scenario analysis,it established the best solution for the sustainable development of industrial economy,through strengthening the education investment,improving the structure of the labor force and quality;Highlighting the enterprise technology innovation main body status and stimulating technological progress momentum;Strengthening resources and environment evolution effect,exploring new green industrial development path;deepening reform of the system and creating a policy to build the new fair market order to build Chinese industrial economy "upgrade",improve the international influence of made in China.In this paper,the main innovation points:first it build General thinking of industry economic growth analysis.First of all through the stochastic frontier model of industrial economic growth effect decomposition,it concluded that the influence degree of different effect on the industry;And then by building a system dynamics model,A systematic and overall analysis of the growth of the industrial economy;at last the combination of scenario analysis,it simulate the growth path of the industrial economic growth.Second it integrate use of system dynamics,historical trend prediction method,the regression analysis in a variety of econometric analysis method to build the system dynamics simulation model of industrial economic growth,and provide effective analysis method to realize the sustainable development of industrial economy,energy and environment provides effective analysis method.Third it predict the future performance of the industrial economic growth,the possible problems in the process of industrial economic growth and the impact on the environment pollution,puts forward the policy recommendations,and also Establishes the optimal scheme of industrial economic sustainable growth and provide a reference for relevant decision-making.