Research On Behavior Analyzing And Predicting Choice Of Telecom Package Consumers With Bounded Rationality

With the completion of a new round of telecom reforming and restructuring, China telecom market had formed a new pattern with three telecom operators:China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. Telecom market's competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and forcing telecom operators to focus on consumers' demand. How to effectively analyze and predict consumers' choice behavior is playing a crucial role in the development of telecom operators. In order to attract more consumers in the competitive market, the telecom operators launched many telecom products. In numerous telecom products, mobile telecom package is the most important product form. Different consumers have different demand and spending power. So telecom operators need to launch different mobile packages according to the different consumer groups. Deep understanding of the behavior of package choosing has important guiding significance for telecom operators.In real life, consumers couldn't make perfectly rational judgement in choosing package, because the information is incomplete or asymmetric. For this reason, this dissertation improved the traditional discrete choice model to analyze and predict the package choosing behavior of telecom consumers with bounded rationality, which based on prospect theory and its promotion reference dependence model.The major work of this paper included five aspects as follows:(1) Systematic review of bounded rationality, prospect theory, reference-dependent model and their research status quo. The research status quo included theoretical and applied research. The above-mentioned work provided a theoretical and methodological support for the research of the key issues. In addition, the related research of the telecom industry status quo had been reviewed, including the development of telecom industry, related knowledge of the telecom packages and the present status of researching with telecom consumers' behavior. This could provide sufficient background materials for later theory research.(2) Analyzing the telecom consumers' behavior of choosing package from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative. On the basis of the relevant theories of consumer behavior, analyzing the telecom package consumers' choosing behavior and the factors which affect telecom consumers' package choice. The questionnaire aiming to survey behavior of choosing telecom package in college students group had been desigened, and the questionnaire results could provide the actual data for subsequent research work. Finally, quantitative analysis of telecom package consumers'choosing behavior had been taken.(3) Based on prospect theory the telecom package consumers'behavior of choosing with bounded rationality had been researched, and compared with the research of consumers' choosing package behavior with complete rationality based on expected utility. The results showed that the method based on prospect theory was more effective, its result was consistent with empirical research result. Finally, due to the reference point setting is one of the important parts in prospect theory, a new method of setting reference point based on the minimum expected consumption had been proposed. Based on the new reference point the telecom consumers'behavior of choosing package also had been analyzed, the results also verified the telecom consumers'bounded rationality when choosing packages.(4) The prediction of telecom consumers'package choosing behavior had been researched based on multinomial logit model improved before and after. On the basis of summarizing discrete choice model and related basic knowledge, the traditional multinomial logit models had been used to predict the choosing behavior of telecom package consumers. Because the traditional multinomial logit model could't predict the choosing behavior of consumers with bounded rationality, the multinomial logit model had been improved based on reference-dependent model, and established the method of predicting the package choosing behavior of telecom consumers with bounded rationality. The prediction results of multinomial logit model improved before and after based on the actual consumption data of multiple telecom operators had been compared and analyzed. The results verified the validity of the improved model, and some valuable conclusions were obtained.(5) The prediction of telecom consumers'package choosing behavior had been researched based on nested logit model improved before and after. Due to the nested logit model can avoid the defect of the IIA property of the multinomial logit model, nested logit model had been used to predict consumers'choosing behavior. The traditional nested logit model also could't predict the choosing behavior of consumers with bounded rationality. Then, the nested logit model had been improved based on reference-dependent model, and been used to predict the package choosing behavior of telecom consumers with bounded rationality. The prediction results of nested logit model improved before and after based on the actual consumption data of multiple telecom operators had been compared and analyzed. The results also verified the validity of the improved model, and some instructive conclusions were got.